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AUB

Auburn 19 at Oklahoma 35

OU
2016 · Allstate Sugar Bowl · Jan 2, 2017 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:27 · Austin Seibert 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+11.5Pregame prior+6.1Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:24: Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick) — OU win probability +7.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:37: Joe Mixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +12.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:39: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +9.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:28: Joe Mixon run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +7.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:40: Samaje Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:04AUB 4th & 2 at OU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:54AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29OU 4th & 9 at OU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16AUB 4th & 8 at OU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:43OU 4th & 4 at AUB 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41AUB 4th & 6 at OU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:44AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:27OU 4th & 2 at AUB 25, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:30AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:37AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 23, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:36AUB 4th & 1 at OU 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:30OU 4th & 24 at AUB 45, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:08AUB 4th & 11 at OU 13, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:04AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:24OU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:37OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:39OU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:28OU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:40OU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5134% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.5%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
66.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
66.4%
Eli Stove run for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
66.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
66.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 11 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
66.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+13
66.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 13 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
65.8%
Ryan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 23Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+10
65.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Okla 13Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
65.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
65.5%
Johnson, Kerryon rush for 4 yards to the OKLAHOMA7, PENALTY OKLAHOMA offside (Okoronkwo, Ogbonnia) 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 5
OPP 6
0
65.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
65.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Okla 6Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
65.5%
Sean White run for 3 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
63.6%
Chandler Cox run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2564% → 63%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
63.6%
Dede Westbrook run for 2 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
63.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 13 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Nick BasquineSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
63.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
63.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jeffery MeadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0837% → 37%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
62.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 6Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
62.7%
Sean White pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan EvansSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+2
63.2%
John Franklin III run for 2 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
63.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1963% → 62%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
62.6%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Montravius Adams) to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
63.0%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
62.6%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
62.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete, broken up by Marlon DavidsonSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
61.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2038% → 39%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.6%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
61.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
61.1%
Sean White pass complete to Will Hastings for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
60.7%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
61.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+2
61.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 49 yds , Dede Westbrook returns for 2 yds to the Okla 35 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Okla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
20 plays · 90 yds · 6:3261% → 68%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
61.0%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 12Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
60.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+28
60.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 28 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
60.6%
Samaje Perine run for 7 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
61.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
61.2%
Mixon, Joe rush for 19 yards to the AUBURN30, PENALTY OKLAHOMA illegal block (Brown, Orlando) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 25
OWN 36
0
59.5%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 25
OWN 36
-10
59.4%
Mayfield, Baker rush for 2 yards to the OKLAHOMA38, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Wren, Erick) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 35
OWN 26
+5
59.1%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Lawson, Carl) 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 30
OWN 31
+3
59.1%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 27
OWN 34
+5
58.1%
Mayfield, Baker pass complete to Mixon, Joe for 3 yards to the OKLAHOMA37, PENALTY AUBURN offside (Lawson, Carl) 5 yards to the OKLAHOMA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+32
58.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 32 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
61.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
61.6%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
61.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 13 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
61.5%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Orlando Brown) to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+7
61.0%
Dede Westbrook run for 7 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
68.1%
Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
16 plays · 43 yds · 4:0236% → 41%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.3%
Pettway, Kamryn rush for 3 yards to the AUBURN28, PENALTY OKLAHOMA offside (Okoronkwo, Ogbonnia) 5 yards to the AUBURN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
63.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
63.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
63.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
62.4%
Sean White run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
62.7%
Sean White run for 12 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
61.4%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Okla 40Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 5
OPP 40
0
61.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
61.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
61.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
60.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-2
59.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
59.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+49
58.8%
Daniel Carlson 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3260% → 72%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
59.8%
Joe Mixon run for 20 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
61.7%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
62.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+14
61.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 14 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
63.4%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
63.3%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
61.8%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+26
60.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 26 yds to the Aub 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.4%
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:4329% → 37%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
71.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
70.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
70.6%
John Franklin III run for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+16
69.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+3
68.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
67.4%
John Franklin III pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
66.5%
John Franklin III pass complete to Tony Stevens for 13 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
65.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
65.0%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
66.5%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
63.1%
Daniel Carlson 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.9%
Joe Mixon run for 6 yds to the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1266% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.2%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
67.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 7 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
67.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 13 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
69.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 33 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
69.7%
Joe Mixon run for 8 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
79.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4624% → 23%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
76.3%
John Franklin III run for no gain to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
77.3%
John Franklin III run for 7 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
77.1%
Kevin Phillips punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1178% → 80%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
78.1%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
77.9%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+15
77.2%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Mead, Jeffery, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Davis, Javaris) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
79.9%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
80.4%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+8
80.5%
Dede Westbrook run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.0%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
81.5%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jordan SmallwoodSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
80.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 4 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
79.5%
Austin Seibert 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4723% → 20%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
76.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
78.0%
John Franklin III run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
79.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5483% → 94%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
82.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 9 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+35
84.6%
Joe Mixon run for 35 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
86.0%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+14
86.2%
Samaje Perine run for 14 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+22
86.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 22 yds to the Aub 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.0%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:298% → 8%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
91.9%
John Franklin III pass complete to Stanton Truitt for 4 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
92.0%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
92.2%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Kerryon Johnson AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
92.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:5094% → 99%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
93.7%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+14
93.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 14 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
94.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Geno Lewis) to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.3%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+41
94.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 26 yds to the OKLAHOMA 41 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tray Matthews) to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
94.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 13 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
95.1%
Joe Mixon run for 1 yd to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+10
95.4%
Baker Mayfield run for 10 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.9%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18INT
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:361% → 1%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.6%
Eli Stove run for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
98.6%
Jeremy Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
98.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
98.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Tony Stevens for 8 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
98.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
98.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Okla 36Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+21
98.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Matt Romar) to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
98.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 17Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
98.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 6:1399% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.0%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 18Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
99.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 6 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
99.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 10 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.2%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+16
99.4%
Samaje Perine run for 16 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.4%
Samaje Perine run for 15 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
99.6%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-7
99.6%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 40 Joe Mixon fumbled, recovered by Okla Joe MixonSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 19
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Samaje Perine run for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 19
OPP 40
-5
99.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Austin Seibert punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 2:231% → 2%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 5 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
99.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+16
99.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+56
99.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Darius Slayton for 56 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
99.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 13Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+12
99.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 12 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Kerryon Johnson pass complete to Jalen Harris for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:37
Joe Mixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 12:39
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 11:24
Mark Andrews 13 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com