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USC

USC 52 at Penn State 49

PSU
2016 · Rose Bowl Game · Jan 2, 2017 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:22 · Chris Tilbey punt for 45 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense−6.4Pregame prior−7.9Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:05: Saquon Barkley run for 79 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +16.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:47: Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Darnold pass to Taylor McNamara for Two-Point Conversion) — USC win probability +17.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:15: Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +18.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:20: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +51.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +34.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:49USC 4th & 8 at PSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42USC 4th & 4 at PSU 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21USC 4th & 10 at PSU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:22USC 4th & 11 at USC 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:38USC 4th & 15 at USC 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:54USC 4th & 7 at USC 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:44PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:41PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:56USC 4th & 10 at USC 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:59PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:44PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:15USC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:39PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:16USC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:54PSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:05PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:27PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:26PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:47USC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:55PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:15USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:20USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−3.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
34.0%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Iman Marshall return for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5366% → 66%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
34.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
34.0%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
34.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
34.3%
Matt Boermeester 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2835% → 35%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
34.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
34.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
35.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+21
35.4%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Adoree' Jackson return for 21 yds to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3965% → 66%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
34.8%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
35.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+25
35.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 25 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for no gain to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
33.7%
Deontay Burnett 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4134% → 34%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
34.2%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
34.3%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
34.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
33.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 34 yds, downed at the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:4766% → 67%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
33.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
33.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
33.4%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
33.5%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
33.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 6 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-2
33.3%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+14
33.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Justin Davis for 14 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
33.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christian Campbell) to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
33.1%
Adoree' Jackson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
33.4%
Matt Boermeester 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1534% → 33%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
34.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
33.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+13
32.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 13 yds to the USC 30 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Jack Jones) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:5467% → 70%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
33.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
33.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
32.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
32.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Taylor McNamaraSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+13
33.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 13 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
32.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 28 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
32.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
32.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
32.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
29.7%
Matt Boermeester 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3131% → 38%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
31.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
30.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 13 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
31.6%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+14
30.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 14 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
31.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 16 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
31.9%
Andre Robinson run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
31.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
37.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:1867% → 72%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
33.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 32 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
32.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+24
33.1%
Justin Davis run for 24 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
32.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:2130% → 39%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
29.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 29 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
30.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
31.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
38.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 30 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1966% → 73%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
33.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
31.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 36 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
31.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
30.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Nico Falah) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+24
31.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 24 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1627% → 38%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
27.0%
Trace McSorley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
26.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 7 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
27.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
27.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
50
+10
27.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
27.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
27.4%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+10
26.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
29.5%
Trace McSorley run for 5 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
29.5%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+12
26.6%
USC Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Stevie Tu'ikolovatu) to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
27.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
38.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:3968% → 72%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
31.9%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 27Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+13
32.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
30.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
29.8%
Sam Darnold run for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
29.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
30.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 12 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+49
28.3%
Matt Boermeester 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2368% → 66%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
31.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
30.4%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
31.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
32.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (Michael Pittman Jr.) to the USC 34Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
34.1%
Chris Tilbey punt for 45 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
50.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 79 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1950% → 48%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
49.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
49.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Grant Haley) to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to De'Quan HamptonSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
48.1%
Adoree' Jackson run for no gain to the USC 41Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
49.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-5
51.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Uchenna Nwosu) to the USC 36Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+18
52.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 54 yds , Gregg Garrity returns for 18 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
65.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 72 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4436% → 35%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
64.2%
JuJu Smith-Schuster run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+24
64.9%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Brandon Bell return for 24 yds to the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.5%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3325% → 42%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
75.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
76.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+20
76.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 20 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
74.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
74.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
76.7%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
75.5%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
57.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Darnold pass to Taylor McNamara for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:4669% → 89%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
68.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Connor McGovern) to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+8
68.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+17
69.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 17 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.8%
Mark Allen run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
71.6%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
73.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 14 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
74.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+15
74.9%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (Cameron Smith) to the USC 24 for a 1ST down. Cameron Smith ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
76.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 17 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4616% → 13%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
84.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
83.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
84.6%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
84.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-3
85.1%
Sam Darnold sacked by Garrett Sickels for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0690% → 91%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
91.0%
Trace McSorley sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 33 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by Rasheem Green, recovered by PnSt Connor McGovern , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+2
90.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+8
90.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 56 yds , Deontay Burnett returns for 8 yds to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:2112% → 30%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
88.4%
Sam Darnold run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+12
89.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
88.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+20
88.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 20 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
88.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
87.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
88.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
88.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 27 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2483% → 84%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
84.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 1 yd to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
83.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 50 yds , Deontay Burnett returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3918% → 14%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
82.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 17 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
80.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-3
80.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-5
84.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 32Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+6
85.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Chris Tilbey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:5191% → 94%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
91.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.1%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
93.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-7
94.9%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
94.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:308% → 62%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
92.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
91.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
90.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jordan Smith) to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
89.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Grant Haley) to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
37.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3859% → 58%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
59.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+32
57.7%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted Leon McQuay III return for 32 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2062% → 95%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
37.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
37.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+46
4.8%
Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:20
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 27 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-51.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOOD
-34.5
TD · Q4 8:15
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com