2016 · Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · Jan 2, 2017 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:31 · Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:23: Dare Ogunbowale 1 Yd Run (Andrew Endicott Kick) — WIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:27: Zach Terrell 2 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:47: Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the WMich 11 — WIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:26: Troy Fumagalli 8 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Andrew Endicott Kick) — WIS win probability +8.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:27: Corey Davis 11 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton PAT failed) — WMU win probability +8.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 7:15WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snapGo for it30.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q1 1:11WMU 4th & 15 at WIS 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.6%−1.017% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q2 14:13WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 21, up 14Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 9:31WMU 4th & 5 at WIS 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.9%42% to convertField goal22.1%−0.838% to makePunt22.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:18WIS 4th & 8 at WMU 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it73.2%−1.530% to convertField goalTheir call74.7%86% to makePunt69.8%−4.8average punt
- Q3 10:00WMU 4th & 7 at WIS 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%88% to makePunt11.9%−8.0average punt
- Q3 5:42WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it74.8%−3.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.5%average punt
- Q3 2:44WMU 4th & 4 at WIS 49, down 7Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it25.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%−0.7average punt
- Q4 13:58WIS 4th & 18 at WMU 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it81.6%−2.913% to convertField goal82.5%−2.025% to makePuntTheir call84.5%average punt
- Q4 3:27WMU 4th & 4 at WIS 11, down 14Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.2%−0.545% to convertField goal4.7%87% to makePunt2.4%−2.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:52WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:23WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.9%97% to makeGo for two74.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:27WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.4%97% to makeGo for two26.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:26WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call92.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two92.2%45% to convert
- Q4 3:27WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call6.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two6.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0164% → 67%
WMUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2434% → 33%
WISDrive 3TD8 plays · 88 yds · 3:4667% → 74%
WMUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 2:0628% → 27%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
71.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 11 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-10
72.5%
Zach Terrell sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 10 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 20
OWN 47
+5
73.2%
Coleman, James punt 38 yards to the WISCONSIN15, fair catch by Peavy, Jazz, PENALTY WISCONSIN running into kicker (Neuville, Zander) 5 yards to the WISCONSIN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
73.4%
James Coleman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5474% → 75%
WMUDrive 6TD19 plays · 65 yds · 8:4026% → 30%
Q2 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+8
74.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 8 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
74.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
76.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael Henry, broken up by Chikwe ObasihSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+7
76.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 7 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+10
74.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
77.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 5 yds to the Wisc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FG11 plays · 63 yds · 5:0173% → 78%
WMUDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9FG13 plays · 65 yds · 4:5225% → 29%
WISDrive 10FUMBLE9 plays · 2 yds · 4:1275% → 75%
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Corey Clement for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+4
76.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-9
76.2%
Bart Houston sacked by Robert Spillane for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+1
74.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 39 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 1 yd to the WMich 35 Darius Phillips fumbled, recovered by WMich Drake SpearsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4728% → 25%
WISDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4179% → 82%
Q3 2:06
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+28
79.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 28 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
81.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 12 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-15
83.7%
Houston, Bart pass complete to Fumagalli, Troy for 7 yards to the WESTMICH23, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Steffes, Eric) 15 yards to the WESTMICH45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
81.5%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted T.J. Edwards return for no gain to the WMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2187% → 95%
WMUDrive 15TD18 plays · 75 yds · 8:537% → 12%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
93.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
50
-10
93.7%
Terrell, Zach pass complete to Henry, Michael for 26 yards to the WISCONSIN24, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Okorafor, Chukwuma) 10 yards to the WESTMICH40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+18
94.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 18 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
94.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 8 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
94.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 31 Zach Terrell fumbled, forced by Vince Biegel, recovered by WMich Taylor Moton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+4
94.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 4 yds Jarvion Franklin fumbled, forced by T.J. Watt, recovered by WMich Jarvion FranklinSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
95.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 10 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+11
87.6%
Corey Davis 11 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16END OF GAME10 plays · 40 yds · 3:2195% → 98%
Q4 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+26
96.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 26 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:27
Corey Davis 11 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton PAT failed)
-8.8
TD · Q4 12:26
Troy Fumagalli 8 Yd pass from Alex Hornibrook (Andrew Endicott Kick)
+8.4
TD · Q2 5:27
Zach Terrell 2 Yd Run (Butch Hampton Kick)
-7.3