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LSU

LSU 29 at Louisville 9

LOU
2016 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2016 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:59 · Mason King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−1.6Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−7.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Colin Jeter 1 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:14: Derrius Guice 1 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:48: Derrius Guice 70 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:04: Colby Delahoussaye 42 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:43: Blanton Creque 30 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +7.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:34LSU 4th & 6 at LOU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:14LOU 4th & 7 at LSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:54LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:35LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:59LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:57LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:55LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:49LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:21LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00LOU 4th & 7 at LSU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:47LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 22, down 10
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:49LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:33LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:22LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:04LSU 4th & 6 at LOU 25, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−6.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:24LOU 4th & 2 at LSU 17, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    -2.0%−7.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:43LOU 4th & 10 at LSU 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -1.5%−6.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:38LSU 4th & 1 at LOU 8, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%−1.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−5.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:54LOU 4th & 5 at LSU 5, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−3.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:50LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 24, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:54LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:48LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1MISSED FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1761% → 60%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+36
39.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 36 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
39.5%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+8
39.5%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
39.6%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
39.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Jonathan GreenardSimilar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
39.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
40.0%
Colby Delahoussaye 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4340% → 41%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
40.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
40.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
40.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
40.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
40.6%
Mason King punt for 58 yds, downed at the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0559% → 58%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
40.8%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+9
41.2%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+1
41.5%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 1
OWN 14
-4
41.9%
Josh Growden punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:0442% → 43%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+53
41.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 53 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
42.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
43.0%
Blanton Creque 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1357% → 56%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
43.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 26 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
42.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 15 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+1
43.6%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 24
OWN 37
0
44.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. Chark, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 24
OWN 37
+5
44.6%
Growden, Josh punt 63 yards to the LOUISVILLE0, touchback, PENALTY LOUISVILLE running into kicker (Smith, Dee) 5 yards to the LSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
44.5%
Josh Growden punt for 33 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0644% → 43%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-19
43.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Devin White for a loss of 19 yards to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 29
OWN 6
+8
43.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
43.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+12
43.3%
Mason King punt for 50 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 12 yds to the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3156% → 61%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
43.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 18 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
43.1%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+5
42.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (DeAngelo Brown) to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
42.9%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
43.0%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+12
43.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 12 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
43.5%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.5%
Colin Jeter 1 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3941% → 40%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.4%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
41.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
41.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tashawn Bower for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
40.4%
Mason King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:3859% → 69%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
41.2%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
41.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+14
42.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
40.8%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-3
40.2%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+29
42.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 29 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
39.4%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malachi Dupre) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
50
+10
39.6%
Danny Etling run for 10 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
39.6%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
39.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+39
39.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 39 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.0%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Lvile 2Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.8%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.0%
Derrius Guice 1 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0131% → 29%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
31.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tashawn Bower for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+9
31.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-3
30.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+15
29.4%
Mason King punt for 51 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 15 yds to the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5670% → 70%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
30.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
29.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
30.3%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, downed at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0030% → 29%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
30.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-3
30.8%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
29.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Rashard Lawrence for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+9
29.1%
Mason King punt for 51 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 9 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2370% → 71%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
30.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
50
0
29.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
50
-2
29.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
29.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+27
29.5%
Josh Growden punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the LOUISVILLE 17 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14SF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0929% → 27%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
29.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
29.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-9
27.2%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
26.7%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Zykiesis Cannon return for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5032% → 30%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
31.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+3
29.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
29.5%
Blanton Creque 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5729% → 27%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
29.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 6Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 17
OWN 6
+1
28.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+15
27.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
26.7%
Mason King punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5072% → 70%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
28.2%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
27.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster Moreau, broken up by De'Asian RichardsonSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-5
28.3%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
29.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
30.1%
Josh Growden punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0728% → 26%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
27.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+8
27.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
28.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-2
29.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
27.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Tre'Davious WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+9
26.2%
Mason King punt for 54 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 9 yds to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3872% → 85%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
28.1%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
15.4%
Derrius Guice 70 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0616% → 15%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
16.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
15.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
15.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
15.3%
Mason King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:0187% → 96%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
13.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 3 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Keith Kelsey) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
12.8%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
12.5%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
12.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 8 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
11.2%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+6
11.1%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-1
10.5%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
4.4%
Colby Delahoussaye 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:066% → 12%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
6.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 12 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
6.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
6.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
5.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 19 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
6.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini, broken up by John BattleSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
6.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+8
5.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+4
5.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 4 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
5.5%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
5.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
5.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
12.1%
Blanton Creque 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:4793% → 98%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
7.3%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 11
50
+15
7.2%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Cannon, Zykiesis) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
6.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
6.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 10 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
6.3%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
6.1%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Alexander, Jaire) 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
5.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
5.8%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+7
5.6%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+25
2.5%
Colby Delahoussaye 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:363% → 3%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+22
2.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 22 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
2.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
2.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+13
2.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
3.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 17 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
3.1%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Radcliff, Brandon, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Battle, John) 13 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-24
4.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Tashawn Bower for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 14 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Lamar Jackson) to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
2.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 9 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.3%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
2.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 1 yd to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:4898% → 99%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
1.9%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+5
1.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jonathan Greenard) to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+4
1.7%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+6
1.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 6 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
1.2%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+1
1.2%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+7
0.8%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
0.7%
Josh Growden punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
50
0
1.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
50
+7
1.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+11
1.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the LSU 32 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by LSU Duke RileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 20 yds · 2:1299% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
0.7%
Darrel Williams run for 14 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.5%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
0.5%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
0.4%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:48
Derrius Guice 70 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
-12.7
FG · Q4 14:43
Blanton Creque 30 Yd Field Goal
+7
TD · Q2 7:14
Derrius Guice 1 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com