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MICH

Michigan 32 at Florida State 33

FSU
2016 · Capital One Orange Bowl · Dec 30, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:35 · Kenny Allen punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+5.5Pregame prior−10.8Garbage-time factor+0.8Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:54: Deondre Francois pass intercepted for a TD Mike McCray return for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MICH win probability +16.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:38: Deondre Francois run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:22: Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +26.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:57: Chris Evans run for 30 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +55.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:36: Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT BLOCKED) — FSU win probability +62.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 10:42MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11MICH 4th & 1 at FSU 1, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31FSU 4th & 5 at MICH 25, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:30MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:29FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:03MICH 4th & 9 at FSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:35MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:06FSU 4th & 1 at MICH 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:36MICH 4th & 10 at FSU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:08FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:49FSU 4th & 4 at MICH 21, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:23MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:04MICH 4th & 4 at FSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:34MICH 4th & 17 at FSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:34FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:37MICH 4th & 3 at midfield, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:41FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:12MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:39MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:58FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 14, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:14FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−4.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:16MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:47FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:49FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:54MICH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:38FSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:22MICH Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57MICH Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    59.4%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:36FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.8%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0536% → 38%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
36.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 23 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
36.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
36.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
36.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 28 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
36.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+12
37.2%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Izzo, Ryan, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Gedeon, Ben) 12 yards to the MICHIGAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5662% → 61%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.8%
Jehu Chesson run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
38.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 8 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.5%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
38.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Tarvarus McFaddenSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
39.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-3
39.4%
Kenny Allen punt for 61 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 1 Nyqwan Murray fumbled, recovered by Mich Dymonte ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2562% → 61%
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
38.5%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
39.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
38.9%
Kenny Allen 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FG
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:3239% → 42%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
39.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 45 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
39.8%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
40.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
40.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
41.9%
Ricky Aguayo 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5458% → 57%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
42.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
42.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
42.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 54 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for 7 yds to the FlaSt 35 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5443% → 44%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
42.7%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
42.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+2
43.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1157% → 55%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
43.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 10 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
43.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
43.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-3
43.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
45.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 37 yds, downed at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
51.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 92 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0549% → 46%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.3%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
51.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 4 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
52.6%
Wilton Speight sacked by Josh Sweat and Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 23Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
53.7%
Kenny Allen punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2256% → 57%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden Tate, broken up by Channing StriblingSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
55.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-5
55.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Minshew) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+13
55.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 13 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
56.8%
TEAM punt for 17 yds, downed at the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:2045% → 44%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
55.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
55.9%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
56.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 10 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
57.0%
Eddie McDoom run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Marshall) to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
56.5%
Chris Evans run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+8
56.0%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
56.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 16 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
57.0%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
58.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
59.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 9:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
55.8%
Kenny Allen 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
19 plays · 54 yds · 4:4258% → 68%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Freddie Stevenson run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
55.7%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
58.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
59.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
61.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis Rudolph, broken up by Dymonte ThomasSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+15
61.0%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Gavin, Keith, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Hill, Lavert) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
62.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
62.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+16
62.1%
Deondre Francois run for 16 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
63.6%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+8
63.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
64.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
67.5%
Ricky Aguayo 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0834% → 30%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
66.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
65.3%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
67.2%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
67.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
68.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-1
68.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
70.0%
Kenny Allen punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1373% → 75%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
73.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
73.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-9
75.1%
Deondre Francois sacked by Taco Charlton for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 7:1929% → 26%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.1%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
71.1%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
72.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Tyrone Wheatley for 8 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
71.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
50
+2
71.3%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+9
72.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ian Bunting for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
72.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
71.2%
Karan Higdon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
73.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+21
75.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ian Bunting for 21 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
72.8%
Wilton Speight run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
73.5%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-7
76.0%
Wilton Speight sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
73.9%
Kenny Allen 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5575% → 73%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
74.4%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
73.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
73.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4927% → 26%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
73.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 13 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
72.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 5 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
72.4%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
50
0
73.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tyrone Wheatley, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 3
50
0
74.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4876% → 77%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
76.2%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
76.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Wilson Bell) to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+5
76.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
77.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
77.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jourdan Lewis at the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1525% → 19%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
75.1%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 21
OWN 38
+7
79.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 7 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1180% → 63%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
79.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Dymonte ThomasSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+14
63.1%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted for a TD Mike McCray return for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0865% → 91%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.1%
Francois, Deondre rush for 7 yards to the FLORIDAST32, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Leonard, Rick) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
64.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 12 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-14
65.7%
Deondre Francois sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 13 Deondre Francois fumbled, forced by Maurice Hurst, recovered by FlaSt Deondre Francois , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+71
63.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 71 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
72.3%
Deondre Francois run for 9 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
72.7%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
75.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Mich 3Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.2%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4514% → 10%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
86.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 13 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
86.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
89.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Ian Bunting, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-3
89.6%
Wilton Speight sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+2
90.0%
Kenny Allen punt for 57 yds , Nyqwan Murray returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Tarvarus McFadden) to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3492% → 92%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
91.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
91.8%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
92.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Channing StriblingSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+22
91.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds , Jourdan Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 13 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Marshall) to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2811% → 37%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
89.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 18 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
87.8%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
88.7%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+15
89.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.1%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to De'Veon SmithSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
89.2%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0183% → 82%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
82.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith Gavin, broken up by Jourdan LewisSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
81.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 37 yds , Jourdan Lewis returns for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0531% → 89%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
69.0%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+10
74.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ian Bunting for 10 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+17
69.1%
Wilton Speight run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
66.4%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+30
11.0%
Chris Evans run for 30 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:5939% → 83%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
39.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 21 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
37.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
37.7%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
94.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 0
OPP 3
0
82.6%
Josh Metellus return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1533% → 24%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara Darboh, broken up by Marquez WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Wilton Speight pass intercepted Carlos Becker III return for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0791% → 92%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
90.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 12
50
-2
90.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-3
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo PAT BLOCKED)
+62.2
TD · Q4 1:57
Chris Evans run for 30 yds for a TD, (Wilton Speight pass to Amara Darboh for Two-Point Conversion)
-55.4
TD · Q4 5:22
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
-26.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com