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OKST

Oklahoma State 38 at Colorado 8

COLO
2016 · Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 29, 2016 · Alamodome
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:06 · Zach Sinor punt for 54 yds, downed at the Colo 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−52.4Score differential−38.2Garbage-time factor−19.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.0Pregame prior+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Chris Carson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +5.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:00: Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +12.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:17: COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 11 — COLO win probability +5.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:42: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +9.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:05: Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 23 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:17OKST 4th & 2 at COLO 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:09COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:27COLO 4th & 5 at OKST 29, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:44OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:51COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:17COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:25OKST 4th & 1 at COLO 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:19OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:26COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:58OKST 4th & 8 at COLO 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:11COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:08COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:50COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 42, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:03COLO 4th & 5 at OKST 5, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:06OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 23, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:34COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 20, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 11:15OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:00OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:42OKST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:05OKST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:28COLO Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:44OKST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3345% → 45%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.4%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
55.4%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
55.5%
Chris Carson run for 14 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
55.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 13 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
55.3%
Chris Carson run for 4 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+18
55.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 18 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
55.2%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
55.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 6 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
55.2%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the Colo 11Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
55.1%
Ben Grogan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5955% → 55%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 15 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
55.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 8 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
55.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
55.6%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
55.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2145% → 45%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
55.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 3 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+26
55.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 26 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
54.5%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
54.5%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-2
54.5%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Leo Jackson III and Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
55.1%
Zach Sinor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the Colo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:0155% → 55%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
54.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
54.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 6Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+13
54.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 13 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
54.5%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+16
54.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 16 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
54.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+12
54.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 12 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
55.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
55.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 1
50
+1
55.5%
Jay MacIntyre run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
55.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Sean Irwin for 15 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
56.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-1
56.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
55.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
54.9%
Chris Graham 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3146% → 46%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
54.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 7 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
52.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 35Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
53.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
54.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for no gain to the Colo 8 Isaiah Oliver fumbled, recovered by Colo Sean IrwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4854% → 53%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
53.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
53.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
53.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
52.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 52 yds, downed at the OKSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2047% → 55%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
52.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 13 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
52.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 9
50
+13
52.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 13 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
51.7%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+24
50.9%
Chris Carson pass complete to Mason Rudolph for 24 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
45.2%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4845% → 44%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
45.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
43.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 9:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
43.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:1055% → 70%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
45.4%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+42
44.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 42 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
43.5%
Hill, Justice rush for 3 yards to the COLORADO14, PENALTY OKLAST illegal formation 5 yards to the COLORADO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
42.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+14
42.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 14 yds to the Colo 8Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
42.4%
Chris Carson run for no gain to the Colo 8Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
43.1%
Mason Rudolph run for 3 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0636% → 34%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
35.9%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Trey Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 19
OWN 32
-5
33.7%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 24
OWN 27
-3
33.1%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Trey Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 27
OWN 24
+38
32.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 38 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
34.2%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Ashton Lampkin return for 1 yd to the OKSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:0671% → 76%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+21
29.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 21 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
28.6%
Chris Carson run for 9 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
28.0%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
27.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 11 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.5%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-7
22.7%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
22.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
23.6%
Zach Sinor punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5329% → 27%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
28.9%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 11Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
28.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+14
27.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 14 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+6
28.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
27.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 1 yd to the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3026% → 25%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
25.9%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
25.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1277% → 79%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.3%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
23.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 18 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
21.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 46 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
20.5%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
19.5%
Chris Carson run for 1 yd to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Austin HaysSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
21.2%
Ben Grogan 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3922% → 21%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
22.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
21.4%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
21.2%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
21.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:0380% → 95%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
19.8%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
19.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
19.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 9 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
18.3%
Carson, Chris rush for 2 yards to the OKLAST43, PENALTY COLORADO substitution infraction 5 yards to the OKLAST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+4
17.8%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 1
50
+2
17.2%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
16.8%
Mason Rudolph run for 4 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (Samson Kafovalu) to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
16.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
16.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+15
16.5%
Chris Carson run for 15 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
15.7%
Chris Carson run for 3 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
14.8%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
4.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:147% → 6%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
6.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 3 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
6.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
6.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
6.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 38 Phillip Lindsay fumbled, recovered by Colo Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-2
5.8%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+12
5.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Lee Walker for 12 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
5.6%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:5597% → 99%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
3.5%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+10
3.4%
Justice Hill run for 10 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
3.2%
Chris Carson run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
3.1%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+23
0.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 23 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:591% → 1%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Lee Walker for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
0.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+9
0.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 9 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
0.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 42 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.8%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the OKSt 7Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
0.7%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+10
0.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 10 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
0.6%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 6Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+9
0.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 9 yds to the OKSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
0.5%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-5
0.5%
Rudolph, Mason pass complete to Lacy, Chris for 8 yards to the OKLAST25, PENALTY OKLAST illegal formation 5 yards to the OKLAST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+11
0.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 11 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
0.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
0.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 54 yds, downed at the Colo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:270% → 2%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 12 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+17
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 17 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
0.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 8 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
0.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 3 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
0.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the OKSt 6Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
1.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds for a TD, (Sefo Liufau pass to Phillip Lindsay for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.9%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
0.8%
Jhajuan Seales run for 3 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+37
0.2%
Justice Hill run for 37 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 5 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
0.2%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
0.1%
Barry Sanders run for 9 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
0.1%
Barry Sanders run for 2 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
0.1%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+5
0.1%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:00
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q3 5:42
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q2 11:15
Chris Carson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com