Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 24 at Virginia Tech 35

VT
2016 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2016 · Bank of America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:10 · Toby Baker punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense−5.2Pregame prior+5.0Score differential−3.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:21: Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 28 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +8.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:18: Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +13.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:00: Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +26.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:03: Travon McMillian run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +22.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:41: Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +10.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:23ARK 4th & 4 at VT 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:04VT 4th & 8 at ARK 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54VT 4th & 4 at VT 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:41VT 4th & 2 at VT 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:35VT 4th & 9 at ARK 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    34.8%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14ARK 4th & 10 at VT 34, up 24
    Close callPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:13VT 4th & 12 at ARK 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:46ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:43ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:22VT 4th & 1 at VT 38, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:10ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−5.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:11ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:43VT 4th & 8 at VT 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:22ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:27VT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:18VT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:00VT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:03VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:41VT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
69.7%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 26 Jerod Evans fumbled, recovered by Ark Brooks EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1830% → 31%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
69.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
69.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 9 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-3
69.4%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
69.4%
Cole Hedlund 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 1:4669% → 69%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
69.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 10 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
69.2%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+38
69.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 38 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
69.4%
Jerod Evans sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+5
69.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
69.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
69.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
68.9%
Jerod Evans sacked by JaMichael Winston and Jeremiah Ledbetter for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0631% → 31%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
68.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
68.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
68.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+5
68.6%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds , Cam Phillips returns for 5 yds to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4869% → 68%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
68.5%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+7
68.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
68.2%
Bucky Hodges run for 15 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
68.6%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+4
68.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
67.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
68.2%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 4:2232% → 39%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
68.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 19 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
67.7%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+26
67.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 26 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
66.6%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+19
66.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 19 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
65.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+20
65.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 20 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
65.4%
Deon Stewart run for 5 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
Austin Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0863% → 61%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
62.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
61.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
60.9%
Jerod Evans pass intercepted for a 1ST down Ryan Pulley return for 50 yds to the VTech 0 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:2440% → 48%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
60.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
51.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 28 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1953% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.8%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
52.7%
Jerod Evans run for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
52.2%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+21
51.5%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 42 yds , Keon Hatcher returns for 21 yds to the Ark 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:3651% → 60%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
48.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+12
48.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 12 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
47.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
47.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+29
45.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 29 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
45.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
44.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
40.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 12 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1540% → 38%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
40.4%
Cam Phillips run for 15 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
40.5%
Cam Phillips run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+7
38.9%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
39.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
38.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:1261% → 63%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
39.4%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+20
40.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 20 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
38.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 36 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
36.5%
Drew Morgan run for 4 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-4
34.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
35.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
36.8%
Toby Baker punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5033% → 32%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
32.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 15 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
33.0%
Jerod Evans run for 33 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
35.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
34.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
32.8%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
32.0%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Drew Morgan at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:5368% → 71%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
32.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
34.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+2
33.7%
Austin Allen run for 2 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+10
29.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5974% → 75%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
26.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-7
27.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+3
27.3%
Austin Allen run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
25.4%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds, downed at the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:4034% → 40%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
35.7%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
34.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
34.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
38.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 15 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
40.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+48
39.7%
Joey Slye 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5180% → 81%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-4
18.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+14
19.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 14 yds Drew Morgan fumbled, recovered by VTechSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:1626% → 34%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
26.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
26.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.3%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3171% → 73%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
28.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (15 Yards) to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
26.9%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-2
26.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
26.8%
Toby Baker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0828% → 26%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
28.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 7 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+5
27.9%
Isaiah Ford run for 5 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
27.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-8
26.5%
Jerod Evans sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+12
24.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
26.3%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keon Hatcher at the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4476% → 80%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
23.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+1
23.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+17
22.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 17 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
21.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 20
OWN 23
0
21.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+10
21.3%
Austin Allen run for 10 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
20.5%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Anthony Shegog return for no gain to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0525% → 37%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
24.7%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
23.7%
Jerod Evans sacked by JaMichael Winston for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+33
22.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 33 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
24.3%
Cam Phillips run for 5 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
23.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (3 Yards) to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
31.9%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Tremaine Edmunds return for 9 yds to the Ark 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:3551% → 50%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
48.3%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
49.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 12 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
45.3%
Keon Hatcher run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
44.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-4
46.1%
Austin Allen sacked by Woody Baron for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
49.5%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
50.5%
Toby Baker punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5750% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
50.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 15 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
51.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
53.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
53.8%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
54.6%
Jerod Evans run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
52.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 7 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
55.4%
Travon McMillian run for 21 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:5230% → 27%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
67.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
68.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
69.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Mook Reynolds for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
72.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
73.0%
Toby Baker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2674% → 75%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
73.2%
Isaiah Ford run for 9 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
74.6%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.8%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
76.2%
Cam Phillips run for 2 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
76.7%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Drew Morgan at the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4330% → 28%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-12
70.1%
Austin Allen sacked by Mook Reynolds for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 5 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 22
OWN 5
-2
71.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 24
OWN 3
+7
71.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 7 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+13
72.3%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Terrell Edmunds return for 13 yds to the Ark 8 Terrell Edmunds fumbled, recovered by VTech Anthony ShegogSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0983% → 93%
Q4 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
82.5%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 1:198% → 6%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.5%
Austin Allen run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
91.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-15
91.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ark 31. Drew Morgan ejected. Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 25
OWN 31
-8
93.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Anthony Shegog for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 33
OWN 23
0
93.7%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32END OF GAME
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:1794% → 97%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
93.5%
Bucky Hodges run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+9
93.8%
Jerod Evans run for 9 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+6
94.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 6 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.2%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
95.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+8
95.5%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
97.1%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:00
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+26.7
TD · Q4 12:03
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+22
TD · Q3 4:18
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com