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USF

South Florida 46 at South Carolina 39

SC
2016 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2016 · Legion Field
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+11.4SC 20.8%Jake Bentley pass complete to BryanEdwards for 9 yds for a TD, (ElliottFry KICK)AWAY 39 - HOME 31 · Q4 9:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:41 · Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 153Pregame prior−4.8Home team on offense−14.4Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:55: Deebo Samuel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +9.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:06: Jake Bentley pass intercepted by Tajee Fullwood, returned for 47 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +8.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:41: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +11.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:11: A.J. Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Bentley pass to Hayden Hurst for Two-Point Conversion) — SC win probability +46.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK) — USF win probability +22.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:35USF 4th & 3 at SC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35SC 4th & 1 at SC 32, down 8
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:15SC 4th & 3 at SC 41, down 15
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56USF 4th & 5 at SC 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01SC 4th & 2 at USF 12, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:38USF 4th & 5 at USF 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07USF 4th & 3 at SC 37, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%−0.5
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:07USF 4th & 4 at SC 4, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−7.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:33SC 4th & 3 at USF 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54USF 4th & 7 at USF 5, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:22SC 4th & 8 at USF 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:41SC 4th & 2 at USF 9, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:33USF 4th & 9 at USF 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45USF 4th & 9 at USF 2, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−3.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:25USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:26USF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:02SC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:40USF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12SC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:07USF Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:55SC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:06USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:41SC Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:11SC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.2%−6.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2577% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
22.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-1
23.0%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 46Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-1
23.1%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
23.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4424% → 24%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
23.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
50
0
23.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
50
+21
23.8%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Devin Abraham return for 21 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:2677% → 77%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
23.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
23.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds Rodney Adams fumbled, recovered by SFla Rodney Adams at SCaro 38Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
24.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
24.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
24.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 14 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
24.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brett Kean pass to Mitchell Wilcox for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5023% → 24%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
23.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 3 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
23.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
23.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
23.6%
Michael Almond punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D'Ernest Johnson at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0976% → 79%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
23.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+12
23.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 12 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
23.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
23.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+9
23.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
23.5%
Rodney Adams run for 8 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
23.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 3 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
23.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+24
23.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 24 yds to the SCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1122% → 22%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
22.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 10 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
22.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 9 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-1
22.8%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 42 Rico Dowdle fumbled, recovered by SCaro Jake BentleySimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-1
21.4%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+2
21.5%
Michael Almond punt for 40 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 2 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:5979% → 80%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
20.8%
Rodney Adams run for 18 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
20.4%
Flowers, Quinton pass incomplete to Wilcox, Mitchell, PENALTY SOCAROLINA holding (Brunson, T.J.) 10 yards to the SOUFLA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
20.4%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+9
20.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 9 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
20.2%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
20.1%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 32Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+13
19.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds Mitchell Wilcox fumbled, forced by Steven Montac, recovered by SCaro Steven Montac at SCaro 19.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:5821% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
20.6%
Jake Bentley run for 10 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
20.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 28 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
21.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 18 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
26.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 25 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:1775% → 81%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
25.3%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+21
25.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 21 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
23.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
23.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 2 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
23.7%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
23.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+22
24.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 22 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
23.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+11
23.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3921% → 21%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 14 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
21.2%
A.J. Turner run for 9 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
21.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 8 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
21.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 24 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
21.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+3
21.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 3 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+8
20.7%
Jake Bentley run for 8 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
20.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2381% → 81%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
19.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-5
18.9%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 10 Quinton Flowers fumbled, recovered by SFla Quinton FlowersSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+7
18.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 7 yds to the SFla 17, Rodney Adams injured on play.Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 5
OWN 17
-5
18.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 51 yds , Chris Lammons returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:2619% → 26%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
19.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 10 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
19.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 17 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
20.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 9 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+19
20.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Nigel Harris) to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
21.0%
Jake Bentley sacked by Jaymon Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+8
20.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 8 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+17
20.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 17 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.5%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
19.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 3 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:0078% → 85%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
22.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
21.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
21.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 12 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
20.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
21.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 7 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+37
14.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
17.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5617% → 28%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
18.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
18.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 26 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
19.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
18.6%
Jake Bentley sacked by Khalid McGee for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 30, SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Nigel Harris) to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
18.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Rico DowdleSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
18.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 11 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.7%
Deebo Samuel run for 4 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:4878% → 81%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
21.6%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
21.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+16
21.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 16 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
20.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 5 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+13
20.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
20.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+10
20.3%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
19.8%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SCaro 6Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
19.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
18.6%
Brandon Behr 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17INT TD
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0120% → 10%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
19.9%
Jake Bentley sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 7 yards to the SCaro 30Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
19.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+47
10.3%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted by Tajee Fullwood, returned for 47 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4112% → 14%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
11.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 5 yds to the SFla 34 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mason Zandi) to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+10
11.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+7
11.2%
Jake Bentley run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+7
11.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 7 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
12.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-1
13.5%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 2 Rico Dowdle fumbled, forced by Jaymon Thomas, recovered by SFla Jaymon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1793% → 94%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
7.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
6.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 5
-2
6.1%
Johnson, D'Ernest rush for 15 yards to the SOUFLA20, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Dillon, Elkanah) 2 yards to the SOUFLA3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+2
6.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+14
5.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 36 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 14 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3211% → 13%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
10.5%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
10.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-3
9.5%
Jake Bentley sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
13.1%
Elliott Fry 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2792% → 93%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
7.9%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
7.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
7.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
7.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 5 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.0%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Bryson Allen-Williams return for no gain to the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:1411% → 21%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
11.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 11 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
11.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 6 yds to the SCaro 40 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jacob August) to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 14
OWN 30
+31
11.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 31 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
13.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+24
11.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 24 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
13.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 4 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
11.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Korey Banks for 5 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
9.4%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+9
20.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5285% → 88%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
15.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
15.8%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+10
16.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 10 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.5%
Rodney Adams run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
12.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
11.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
11.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 40 yds, downed at the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1415% → 22%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
15.2%
A.J. Turner run for 24 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
17.3%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
17.2%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+23
16.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 23 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
19.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 13 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+7
21.9%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the SFla 1 A.J. Turner fumbled, forced by Tajee Fullwood, recovered by SFla Khalid McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3491% → 92%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
9.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
9.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+1
8.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+39
7.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 39 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 39 yds to the SFla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:3417% → 62%
Q4 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.0%
Jake Bentley run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.9%
Jake Bentley run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Bentley pass to Hayden Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0554% → 56%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
46.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
42.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
43.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 29Uncategorized
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0028% → 22%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
24.0%
Bentley, Jake pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SOUFLA34 (Harris, Nigel), PENALTY SOUFLA face mask (Livingstone, Kirk) 13 yards to the SOUFLA12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
28.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SFla 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
28.1%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SFla 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
25.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 8
-7
22.4%
Jake Bentley sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 15 Jake Bentley fumbled, forced by Mike Love, recovered by SFla Khalid McGee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Bentley pass to Hayden Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)
+46.8
TD · OT 0:00
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Behr KICK)
-22.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com