Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 28 at Kansas State 33

KSU
2016 · AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl · Dec 28, 2016 · NRG Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:00: Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:07: Dominique Heath run for 52 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:55: Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +18.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:00: Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:50: Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +30.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:48KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12TA&M 4th & 1 at KSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−1.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03TA&M 4th & 21 at KSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:01KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:04TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:13KSU 4th & 4 at TA&M 23, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:50TA&M 4th & 17 at TA&M 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−3.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32KSU 4th & 1 at TA&M 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:56KSU 4th & 1 at TA&M 46, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−5.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:48KSU 4th & 8 at TA&M 8, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−12.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55TA&M 4th & 4 at KSU 33, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−2.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 38, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:11TA&M 4th & 8 at KSU 23, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−9.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:30TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:19KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:00TA&M Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:07KSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:55TA&M Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:00KSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:50TA&M Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1558% → 59%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
41.8%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
41.9%
Keith Ford run for 9 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
41.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 6 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
41.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 4 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
42.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
42.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
42.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+19
42.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.0%
Keith Ford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2341% → 41%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.4%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
41.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 6 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
41.4%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
41.3%
Charles Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
40.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+33
40.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the KANSASST 20 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 3:4159% → 59%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Tanner SchorpSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
40.8%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
41.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 11 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
40.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 5 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
40.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 4 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
40.0%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the KanSt 45Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+7
40.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
39.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+4
40.1%
Trevor Knight run for 4 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 21
OPP 49
0
40.0%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 21
OPP 49
0
40.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
40.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Byron Pringle at the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
44.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 79 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.4%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Kendall Adams return for no gain to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1246% → 44%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
45.7%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-2
45.5%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Shaan Washington and Zaycoven Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 40Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
44.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+11
44.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 37 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 11 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3655% → 55%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
44.6%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
44.4%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
45.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+21
45.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Byron Pringle at the KANSASST 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:2847% → 54%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
46.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
47.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
47.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
47.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
48.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+28
48.8%
Justin Silmon run for 28 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
48.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
48.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 14Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
49.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 9 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5949% → 58%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
50.1%
Keith Ford run for 13 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
50.2%
Keith Ford run for 12 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
49.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+37
50.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 37 yds to the KanSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
48.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds to the KanSt 3Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:1546% → 52%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
46.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 10 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
47.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
48.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 11 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
49.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 5 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
49.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
48.2%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
52.3%
Ian Patterson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 2:1750% → 46%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
50.8%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-5
51.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+5
51.4%
Christian Kirk run for 5 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
52.7%
Trevor Knight run for no gain to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
53.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Byron Pringle at the KanSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4354% → 64%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
53.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
54.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+52
64.3%
Dominique Heath run for 52 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:3638% → 36%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
62.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 8 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.5%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
62.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Jeremy TabuyoSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-4
63.6%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 35 Trevor Knight fumbled, recovered by KanSt Reggie WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2968% → 65%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
67.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 8 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-2
68.9%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Reggie Chevis for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
68.1%
Dalvin Warmack run for 3 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-4
64.9%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:1737% → 37%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
63.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+11
64.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
50
0
63.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
50
+4
65.2%
Trevor Knight run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
63.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5165% → 70%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.4%
Charles Jones run for 3 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
66.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
66.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 12 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
68.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 40Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+11
67.9%
Charles Jones run for 11 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
70.9%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
70.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
69.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 3:3131% → 50%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
68.8%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 5Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+5
69.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 10Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+23
69.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 23 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
68.4%
Keith Ford run for 25 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
66.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
67.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 37Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
67.4%
Trevor Knight run for 8 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
67.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 13 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
68.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the KanSt 13Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
68.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:0157% → 66%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
56.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+6
57.5%
Justin Silmon run for 6 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+36
57.1%
Justin Silmon run for 36 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
62.5%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+26
62.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Winston Dimel for 26 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.9%
Justin Silmon run for no gain to the TexAM 6Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
63.1%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 8Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
61.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Deante BurtonSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
65.7%
Ian Patterson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:3338% → 39%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
61.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
58.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+6
57.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
57.0%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
58.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
57.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
58.0%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+6
60.3%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+52
61.1%
Daniel LaCamera 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:2367% → 93%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.2%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
68.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+19
68.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 19 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
74.4%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
74.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+20
75.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 20 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
78.1%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-5
78.4%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+20
78.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 20 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.5%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.2%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0310% → 43%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
88.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 40 yds to the KanSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
87.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
57.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5781% → 82%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Winston DimelSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
81.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 3 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+1
81.5%
Nick Walsh punt for 49 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 1 yd to the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:1330% → 30%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
69.8%
Keith Ford run for 7 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+14
69.5%
Keith Ford run for 14 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
69.2%
Trevor Knight run for 8 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
66.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 17 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
64.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+6
63.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Damion Ratley for 6 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
63.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
63.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 2 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-4
66.4%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 23Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 23
0
70.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · -10 yds · 2:0291% → 95%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
91.2%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 23Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
92.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.8%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 34Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-15
93.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 25
OWN 19
0
93.8%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 25
OWN 19
-6
95.0%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 6 yards to the KanSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:50
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q3 6:55
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-18.7
TD · Q4 9:00
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com