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PITT

Pittsburgh 24 at Northwestern 31

NU
2016 · New Era Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 28, 2016 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:38 · Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior−7.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:51: Jester Weah 69 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +13.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:13: Nathan Peterman 5 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +11.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:47: Justin Jackson 40 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +17.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:15: George Aston 6 Yd pass from Ben DiNucci (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +20.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Garrett Dickerson 21 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +27.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:07NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53PITT 4th & 18 at NU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:38NU 4th & 8 at NU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:50PITT 4th & 1 at NU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 1 at PITT 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:43PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:22NU 4th & 1 at PITT 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−5.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:38PITT 4th & 22 at NU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:35NU 4th & 15 at NU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:18NU 4th & 3 at PITT 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−5.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:23NU 4th & 1 at PITT 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−2.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−17.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:14NU 4th & 14 at PITT 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−5.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−17.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:49PITT 4th & 10 at NU 18, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:55NU 4th & 9 at NU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:31NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:08NU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:51PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:13PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:47NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:15PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:23NU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5341% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
41.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-6
41.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Allen Edwards and Shakir Soto for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
41.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 33 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:5958% → 58%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
41.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 38 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
41.7%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 28 Quadree Henderson fumbled, recovered by Pitt Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 18
OPP 28
0
41.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 18
OPP 28
0
42.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
42.2%
Chris Blewitt 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1542% → 42%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
42.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 6 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
42.6%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
42.5%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
42.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
42.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:4858% → 57%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
42.5%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
42.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 3 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
42.8%
Peterman, Nathan pass pass intended for Weah, Jester intercepted by McGee, Jared at the PITTSBURGH42, McGee, Jared return 0 yards to the PITTSBURGH42, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Hartage, Montre) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
42.3%
James Conner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+8
42.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
42.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 15 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
42.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 24 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
41.9%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+7
42.0%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.0%
Brian O'Neill pass incomplete to George AstonSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
42.0%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
42.5%
George Aston run for 2 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.0%
James Conner run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:1943% → 50%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
42.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+68
42.9%
Justin Jackson run for 68 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
45.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
45.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+10
44.6%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
45.4%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
45.6%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
45.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Pitt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
44.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
49.7%
Justin Jackson 8 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3653% → 54%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+37
47.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 37 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
45.5%
James Conner run for 21 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
45.5%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
45.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+12
45.8%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Godwin Igwebuike return for 12 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7INT
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2048% → 54%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
48.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+17
48.3%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
48.9%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
49.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+21
48.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 21 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
50.8%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
51.1%
John Moten IV run for 6 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
51.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
52.3%
Clayton Thorson run for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
53.0%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
53.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 10 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
54.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 19Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
54.4%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted, touchback. Avonte Maddox return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5149% → 47%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
50.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 1 yd to the Pitt 21 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Quadree Henderson) to the Pitt 11Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+1
51.3%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+11
51.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 11 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
52.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
53.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for no gain to the Nwest 23 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3553% → 68%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
52.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
54.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
52.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
55.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+32
53.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 32 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
56.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
67.5%
Justin Jackson 16 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
52.2%
Jester Weah 69 Yd pass from Nathan Peterman (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 49 yds · 1:5454% → 58%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
54.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
55.0%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Mitchell, Reggie) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+32
59.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 17 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 48 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (Shakir Soto) to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
60.1%
Thorson, Clayton pass incomplete to Moten IV, John, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Butler, J.B.) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
57.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+8
57.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:2045% → 47%
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+19
54.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 19 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
53.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
53.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4646% → 61%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+57
54.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 57 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
50.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+9
50.6%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for 9 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
39.2%
Nathan Peterman 5 Yd Run (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 89 yds · 5:1843% → 65%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
42.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
42.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+10
41.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 10 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
42.9%
Clayton Thorson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
45.1%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
43.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 1 yd to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
43.4%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
44.6%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+8
43.7%
Justin Jackson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
45.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
47.6%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Shakir Soto and James Folston Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
47.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+40
64.5%
Justin Jackson 40 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:5944% → 37%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
56.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 30 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
54.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
54.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
56.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
54.6%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-18
54.3%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Joe Gaziano and Xavier Washington for a loss of 18 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 28
OPP 31
+6
59.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 6 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 22
OPP 25
+43
62.9%
Chris Blewitt 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0364% → 62%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
64.8%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
63.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
62.4%
Hunter Niswander punt blocked by Chawntez Moss blocked by Chawntez MossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:2045% → 64%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
55.3%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
56.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
57.7%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Dontez Ford for 7 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
55.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
56.1%
Ben DiNucci run for 2 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
35.7%
George Aston 6 Yd pass from Ben DiNucci (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:4443% → 75%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
42.7%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
43.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 5 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
41.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 12 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
45.8%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Jeremiah Taleni for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+4
42.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+6
41.1%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+5
42.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 5 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
46.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
46.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
44.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 11 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
49.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
49.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+4
46.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 4 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+21
74.5%
Garrett Dickerson 21 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27 Quadree Henderson fumbled, forced by Anthony Walker Jr., recovered by Nwest Tyler LancasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0078% → 89%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
78.2%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-7
80.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+3
81.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
80.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+37
89.2%
Jack Mitchell 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21INT
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:2015% → 12%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.2%
Quadree Henderson run for no gain to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.4%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+16
87.2%
Ben DiNucci run for 16 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
83.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 5
OPP 44
0
83.1%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
83.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
83.8%
Quadree Henderson run for 21 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.9%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
83.8%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
86.0%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 10
OPP 18
0
87.7%
Ben DiNucci pass intercepted Jared McGee return for no gain to the Nwest 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5494% → 94%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
93.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-2
93.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 4Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
94.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
93.9%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for no gain to the Pitt 4 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:339% → 9%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.0%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+13
91.5%
Ben DiNucci pass intercepted Kyle Queiro return for 13 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:23
Garrett Dickerson 21 Yd pass from Clayton Thorson (Jack Mitchell Kick)
+27.9
TD · Q4 13:15
George Aston 6 Yd pass from Ben DiNucci (Chris Blewitt Kick)
-20.4
TD · Q3 7:47
Justin Jackson 40 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)
+17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com