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MINN

Minnesota 17 at Washington State 12

WSU
2016 · National Funding Holiday Bowl · Dec 27, 2016 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:56 · Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the WshSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+12.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:23: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 13 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +20.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:32: Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 23 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:52: Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST down — MINN win probability +15.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:06: Rodney Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:56MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:39WSU 4th & 1 at MINN 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36WSU 4th & 2 at MINN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23WSU 4th & 9 at MINN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:46MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:16WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:47MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:19WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 15, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:26MINN 4th & 6 at WSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:59WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:03MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:36WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:33WSU 4th & 22 at MINN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:45WSU 4th & 8 at MINN 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:15WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:50MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 29, up 4
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:25WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:08MINN 4th & 10 at WSU 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:40WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 22, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−3.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:40MINN 4th & 4 at WSU 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−5.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−2.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:05WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 3:23MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:06MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:19WSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5937% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
63.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-10
63.0%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Hercules Mata'afa for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 31Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+7
63.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 7 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
63.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the WshSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:2163% → 64%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
63.0%
Gerard Wicks run for 8 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+8
63.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 8 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
63.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 12 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
63.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to C.J. DimrySimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+25
63.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 25 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
63.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
63.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
63.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 6 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
63.7%
James Williams run for no gain to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
63.5%
Luke Falk run for 3 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
63.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 6 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 7:39
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-1
62.9%
Gerard Wicks run for 9 yds to the Minn 2 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tavares Martin Jr.) to the Minn 12Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+2
62.8%
Gerard Wicks run for 2 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
63.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 1 yd to the Minn 9Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.5%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to John ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
63.6%
Erik Powell 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:2937% → 37%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
63.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 19 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
62.9%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
62.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
63.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2563% → 63%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
63.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 13 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.4%
Gerard Wicks run for 1 yd to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-3
63.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+7
62.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to John Thompson for 7 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
62.6%
Erik Powell punt for 51 yds, downed at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:1837% → 36%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
63.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+10
63.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
62.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
62.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
62.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
62.2%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-5
63.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Donnell Greene) to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 17
OWN 32
-4
63.4%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 21
OWN 28
-5
64.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 26
OWN 23
+16
64.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 16 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+3
64.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 52 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 3 yds to the WshSt 12 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the WshSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1462% → 61%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
62.4%
Luke Falk run for 1 yd to the WshSt 7Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+5
62.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Isaiah Johnson-Mack for 5 yds to the WshSt 12Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+3
61.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to John Thompson for 3 yds to the WshSt 15Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
61.4%
Kyle Sweet punt for 25 yds, downed at the WshSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5339% → 43%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
61.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Connor Mayes) to the WshSt 45Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+4
61.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+11
61.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 11 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
59.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
59.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-5
60.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Donnell Greene) to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
60.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
57.5%
Emmit Carpenter 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1461% → 60%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 1 yd to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
61.2%
Luke Falk run for 6 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
60.9%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
60.1%
Erik Powell punt for 38 yds, downed at the Minn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5042% → 40%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
58.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
59.0%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+1
59.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 44 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for 1 yd to the WshSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2461% → 59%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.4%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Jamal MorrowSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to James WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
59.9%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+3
59.1%
Erik Powell punt for 36 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for 3 yds to the Minn 41 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0045% → 44%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
55.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
57.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
57.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
55.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
55.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4764% → 63%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
63.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 3 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-1
64.6%
Jamal Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+24
63.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 24 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-12
64.7%
Luke Falk sacked by Nick Rallis for a loss of 12 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 22
OPP 24
0
63.4%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to C.J. DimrySimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 22
OPP 24
0
61.7%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to C.J. DimrySimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 22
OPP 24
+41
62.9%
Erik Powell 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1836% → 37%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.7%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
62.8%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 6:1064% → 66%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
64.2%
Gerard Wicks run for 6 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-5
65.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, False Start (Cody O'Connell) to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
65.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 8 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
65.0%
James Williams run for 5 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
66.0%
Jamal Morrow run for 2 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
65.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 7 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
66.5%
Jamal Morrow run for 6 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
67.5%
Jamal Morrow run for 4 yds to the WshSt 48Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
68.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to C.J. Dimry for 8 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
68.6%
Luke Falk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
68.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 9 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-6
68.8%
Luke Falk sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
65.9%
Zach Charme punt for 26 yds, downed at the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 5:1336% → 62%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
64.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
63.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
64.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 19 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
60.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Rashad Still for 16 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
60.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 10 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
58.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Connor Mayes) to the WshSt 34Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+1
59.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the WshSt 33Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+18
60.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 18 yds to the WshSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
58.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the WshSt 13Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
58.9%
Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the WshSt 13Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
38.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 13 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5844% → 40%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
44.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to C.J. Dimry for 3 yds to the WshSt 25 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Robert Lewis) to the WshSt 15Similar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 17
OWN 15
0
43.8%
Luke Falk run for no gain to the WshSt 15Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+7
43.3%
Luke Falk run for 7 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
41.6%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Kyle SweetSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
40.3%
Erik Powell punt for 55 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for no gain to the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1960% → 58%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
40.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad StillSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
40.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
41.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Connor Mayes) to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+10
41.2%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
41.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, downed at the WshSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1943% → 39%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.8%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
42.4%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson-MackSimilar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
40.7%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
39.4%
Erik Powell punt for 35 yds, downed at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1364% → 64%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
35.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
36.6%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+20
37.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 20 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
34.2%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 45Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+3
35.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+3
35.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 3 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
36.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 37 yds, downed at the WshSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2040% → 36%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
40.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 9 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 11
0
40.3%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
38.1%
Jamal Morrow run for 2 yds to the WshSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
40.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 4 yds to the WshSt 17Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
39.2%
James Williams run for 5 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
38.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to John ThompsonSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
35.5%
Erik Powell punt for 58 yds, downed at the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:5368% → 76%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
31.8%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Wolitarsky, Drew, PENALTY WASHST pass interference (Thompson, Jalen) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
29.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
25.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
25.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
26.2%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+3
23.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
23.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 28 yds, downed at the WshSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2733% → 30%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+23
32.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 23 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
36.4%
James Williams run for 2 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
36.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 2 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
33.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Kyle SweetSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+23
29.5%
Luke Falk pass intercepted Adekunle Ayinde return for 23 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:4686% → 95%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
13.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
12.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
11.6%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the WshSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
4.6%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 1:404% → 15%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
4.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Kyle SweetSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
3.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 4 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+11
3.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 11 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
3.9%
Luke Falk sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 10 yards to the WshSt 26Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+22
2.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to C.J. Dimry for 22 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
2.9%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to C.J. DimrySimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+29
3.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 29 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.0%
Luke Falk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.1%
Luke Falk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:23
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Shannon Brooks for 13 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
-20.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:52
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST down
-15.9
TD · Q4 0:19
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com