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ARMY

Army 38 at North Texas 31

UNT
2016 · Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl · Dec 27, 2016 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:44 · Eric Keena punt for 44 yds , Malik McGue returns for no gain to the Army 18 Malik McGue fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kenny Buyers
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 123Pregame prior−9.2Home team on offense−15.2Score differential−6.7Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:10: Alec Morris pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 27 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +9.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:41: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 65 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:45: Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +27.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 0:28: Trevor Moore 37 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +28.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +10.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 3:40UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:55UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:58ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:02UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 33, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:22UNT 4th & 1 at ARMY 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−4.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:00ARMY 4th & 4 at UNT 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−1.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:44UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:04ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 17, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:04ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.0%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:25ARMY 4th & 4 at UNT 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−17.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:28UNT 4th & 2 at ARMY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−11.0
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−29.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 9:18ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:35UNT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:56ARMY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:05ARMY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:37ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:26UNT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:10UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:41ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:45UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1979% → 77%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
21.2%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
21.5%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 40Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
21.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
21.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
22.1%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
22.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
22.4%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+10
22.8%
Tyler Campbell run for 10 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
22.9%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+25
23.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 25 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:2723% → 27%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
23.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 22 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
23.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
24.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
24.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
24.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 8 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
26.7%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1774% → 76%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
25.8%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
26.2%
Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+70
24.4%
Tyler Campbell 70 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4725% → 24%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
24.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
24.7%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
24.4%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
24.4%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds , Malik McGue returns for no gain to the Army 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:5975% → 79%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+38
24.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Tyler Campbell for 38 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
24.0%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
24.2%
John Trainor run for 4 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
24.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
24.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
24.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
25.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
24.9%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.7%
Darnell Woolfolk 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4822% → 22%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
22.1%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 7 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+7
22.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
22.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
22.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 7 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-5
23.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
22.5%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Jeffrey WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
21.9%
Eric Keena punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Malik McGue at the Army 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:5678% → 86%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
21.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+16
21.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 16 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
21.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+15
21.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 15 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
20.8%
Kell Walker run for 26 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
20.5%
Andy Davidson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+8
20.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the NoTex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
20.1%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
13.9%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 3:3816% → 22%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
16.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 8 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
16.8%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+15
16.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 15 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
17.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+30
16.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 30 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
17.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
17.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+15
16.8%
MORRIS, Alec pass incomplete to SMILEY, Turner, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 15 yards to the ARMY7, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY, clock 02:40.Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
17.2%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-15
18.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Thaddeous Thompson) to the Army 22Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
24.2%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
22.2%
ARMY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaylon McClinton) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:2878% → 78%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.3%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (Ahmad Bradshaw) to the Army 20Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
22.5%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
22.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
22.6%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
22.2%
J.D. Mote punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Turner Smiley at the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:2219% → 30%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
19.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+23
19.4%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 23 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
20.6%
Alec Morris run for 15 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-13
21.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Army 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoTex Alec MorrisSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 23
OPP 39
+12
19.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to O'Keeron Rutherford for 12 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+27
29.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 27 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
28.1%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12INT
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:1433% → 36%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
32.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
31.0%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+10
30.4%
Eric Keena pass complete to Kenny Buyers for 10 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
34.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
33.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 14 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
36.1%
Anthony Wyche run for 1 yd to the Army 42Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
36.2%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+15
35.2%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 15 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
37.7%
Andrew Tucker run for 12 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
37.7%
Andrew Tucker run for 1 yd to the Army 14Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-15
37.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sam Rice) to the Army 29Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 24
OPP 29
+3
35.8%
Alec Morris pass intercepted Elijah Riley return for 3 yds to the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:5167% → 79%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
32.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
31.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
31.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
31.7%
Tyler Campbell run for no gain to the Army 28Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
32.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+65
21.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 65 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0421% → 20%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
21.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
22.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
20.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
21.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
21.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-3
20.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4683% → 81%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
17.3%
Tyler Campbell run for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
16.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
17.0%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
17.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
17.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+1
19.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2519% → 17%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
18.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
20.0%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-5
19.2%
Alec Morris sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
16.9%
Eric Keena punt for 44 yds , Malik McGue returns for no gain to the Army 18 Malik McGue fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kenny BuyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
43.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1565% → 62%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
34.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+6
35.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
36.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Army 17Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
37.7%
J.D. Mote punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2242% → 43%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
50
-5
42.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Jordan Murray) to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+9
38.8%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 9 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
42.9%
Tyler Wilson pass intercepted Elijah Riley return for no gain to the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS
20 plays · 66 yds · 10:1067% → 79%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
33.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
34.0%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 12Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+5
35.1%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
30.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+8
29.7%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
29.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
28.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
26.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
26.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+2
26.9%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+5
28.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
22.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
23.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
20.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
19.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+1
19.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the NoTex 28Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 4
OPP 28
-2
21.3%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 1:3734% → 60%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
33.6%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 17 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
35.7%
Alec Morris pass complete to Thaddeous Thompson for 6 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+9
38.8%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 9 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
36.8%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
35.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 39Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+11
27.3%
Alec Morris pass complete to Turner Smiley for 11 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
38.6%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Tyler WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
32.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Trey Keenan) to the Army 33Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 15
OPP 33
-8
28.6%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the Army 31 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Thaddeous Thompson) to the Army 41Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 23
OPP 41
+14
24.9%
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 14 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+7
29.0%
Alec Morris pass complete to Jeffrey Wilson for 7 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
59.6%
Trevor Moore 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 67%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Kell Walker pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+15
43.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 15 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
40.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the NoTex 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
40.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the NoTex 3Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 18%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.1%
Alec Morris run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-3
28.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 24Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
21.8%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
0
18.0%
Alec Morris pass incomplete to Thaddeous Thompson, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:28
Trevor Moore 37 yd FG GOOD
+28
TD · Q3 0:45
Alec Morris pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+27
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com