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M-OH

Miami (OH) 16 at Mississippi State 17

MSST
2016 · St. Petersburg Bowl · Dec 26, 2016 · Tropicana Field
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.2MSST 74.0%Nick Dowd 18 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 10:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:07 · Nick Dowd 18 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +12.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:11: Ryan Smith 1 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick) — M-OH win probability +14.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:15: Nick Fitzgerald 44 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +20.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:03: Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +13.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18 — MSST win probability +22.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:07M-OH 4th & 1 at MSST 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:40M-OH 4th & 2 at MSST 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:54MSST 4th & 9 at M-OH 34, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:15M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:35MSST 4th & 3 at M-OH 47, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:49M-OH 4th & 13 at MSST 30, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.1 ptsWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%−4.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:03MSST 4th & 6 at M-OH 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−16.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:01M-OH 4th & 1 at MSST 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−4.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:29MSST 4th & 4 at M-OH 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−1.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−23.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:36M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22MSST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:11M-OH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:15MSST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:3825% → 26%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
75.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
75.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
75.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
74.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 25 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
74.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.4%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
74.0%
Nick Dowd 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0874% → 73%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
74.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
73.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+8
73.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
73.7%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
73.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2827% → 27%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
73.3%
Maurice Thomas run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.7%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
73.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4672% → 72%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
72.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+18
72.0%
Aeris Williams run for 18 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
72.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+3
71.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
71.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FUMBLE
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:2028% → 32%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.9%
Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+16
71.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 16 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
70.7%
Maurice Thomas run for 18 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
69.9%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
69.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alexx Zielinski for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
69.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
70.0%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
68.3%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
67.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 16 yds, Rokeem Williams fumbled, recovered by MisSt Richie Brown, return for 2 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1070% → 68%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
69.5%
Malik Dear run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
69.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
68.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
68.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:4432% → 41%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
68.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+20
67.6%
Gus Ragland run for 20 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
66.9%
Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
66.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
66.4%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
65.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 19 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
65.1%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.1%
James Gardner 6 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2661% → 57%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
61.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
61.9%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
61.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
61.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
60.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
60.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
60.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
58.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
57.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3545% → 45%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
55.1%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
53.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-2
53.8%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+7
55.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 35 yds , Fred Ross returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:4856% → 70%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
56.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
56.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
57.1%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
55.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 24 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
57.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
57.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+13
55.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the MiaOh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1564% → 64%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
64.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
66.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
65.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
64.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
65.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
63.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:1440% → 60%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
60.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 21 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
59.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+11
58.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
57.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cedric Jiles) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
55.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
55.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+20
55.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 20 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
54.8%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.9%
Ryan Smith 1 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:4743% → 64%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
43.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
43.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+11
42.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
43.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
44.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
43.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
43.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
42.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+44
63.5%
Nick Fitzgerald 44 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:2145% → 47%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.2%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
55.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
50.8%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+20
50.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 20 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
48.4%
Gus Ragland sacked by Nick James for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+1
47.6%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+3
49.9%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+21
53.0%
Gus Ragland pass intercepted Jamoral Graham return for 21 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3758% → 70%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
57.7%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+41
61.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 26 yds to the MISSSTATE 38 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Personal Foul (Deondre Daniels) to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-15
64.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+4
59.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+15
57.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
70.3%
Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:5434% → 40%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.9%
Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
64.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+16
65.8%
Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
61.1%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
50
+6
59.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
59.8%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
59.3%
Rokeem Williams pass incomplete to Sam ShissoSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
59.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
59.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
59.9%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:2668% → 71%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
68.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
71.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
71.5%
Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
72.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Heath Harding) to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
74.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
74.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-1
72.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 4
OPP 22
0
71.0%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:1537% → 29%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
62.9%
Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
61.5%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+16
62.2%
Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+8
60.8%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+2
60.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
61.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 23 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
62.5%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-1
63.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+37
71.2%
Nick Dowd 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nelson AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18
+22
TD · Q3 4:15
Nick Fitzgerald 44 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)
+20.7
TD · Q3 8:11
Ryan Smith 1 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com