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OHIO

Ohio 23 at Troy 28

TROY
2016 · Dollar General Bowl · Dec 23, 2016 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:14: Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +4.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:52: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +6.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:59: Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:47: Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +14.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:01: Louie Zervos 37 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +5.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:53OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:20OHIO 4th & 7 at TROY 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:25TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:35TROY 4th & 3 at OHIO 3, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:20TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:54TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:45OHIO 4th & 3 at TROY 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:34TROY 4th & 6 at OHIO 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:28OHIO 4th & 10 at TROY 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:46TROY 4th & 2 at OHIO 44, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−4.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:02OHIO 4th & 2 at TROY 29, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−11.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:55TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:01OHIO 4th & 18 at TROY 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:34TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:19OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:14TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:52TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:59OHIO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:47TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5536% → 35%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
64.5%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
64.5%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Ohio 17Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-3
64.5%
Greg Windham sacked by Sam Lebbie for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 14Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
64.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:0665% → 65%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+47
64.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 47 yds to the Ohio 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4235% → 35%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.0%
Windham, Greg pass incomplete to White, Papi, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Weatherspoon, Kris) 15 yards to the OHIO40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
64.9%
Greg Windham run for 3 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
65.0%
Greg Windham pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 3 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4INT
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:0866% → 66%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
65.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 25 yds to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
65.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+13
65.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the Ohio 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
66.0%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Toran Davis return for no gain to the Ohio 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:4034% → 37%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
65.6%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+23
65.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 8 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Justin Lucas) to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
65.8%
Greg Windham run for no gain to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+24
66.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Elijah Ball for 9 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Roughing Passer (Seth Calloway) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
50
+6
65.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
63.2%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 44 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0064% → 64%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
63.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+31
63.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 9, fumble by TEAM recovered by B.J. Smith, B.J. Smith rush for 31 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Toran Davis return for no gain to the Ohio 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7INT
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5736% → 38%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
63.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 22 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
62.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 6 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
62.5%
Greg Windham pass intercepted Kris Weatherspoon return for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:0664% → 69%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
64.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
64.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 8 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
64.6%
Josh Anderson run for 9 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+8
64.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
65.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
65.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
64.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Ohio 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
65.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 13 yds to the Ohio 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.2%
Silvers, Brandon pass complete to Douglas, Deondre for 3 yards to the OHIO3, PENALTY OHIO offside (Aloese, Cleon) 3 yards to the OHIO3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:4032% → 36%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.6%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+15
67.4%
Windham, Greg pass incomplete to Smith, Sebastian, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Melton, Kamryn) 15 yards to the OHIO44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.9%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
67.2%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+24
67.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 24 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.8%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
65.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 13 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
65.7%
Papi White run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
65.8%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
66.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
64.4%
Louie Zervos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4965% → 64%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.9%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
64.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+4
63.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds , Papi White returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4036% → 37%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
63.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
64.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Elijah Ball for 11 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
63.1%
Greg Windham sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 47 Greg Windham fumbled, forced by Antione Barker, recovered by Troy Seth Calloway , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4567% → 66%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
66.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
67.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+17
67.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the Ohio 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
67.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 3 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
67.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
66.7%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tarell Basham) to the Ohio 3Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
65.6%
Ryan Kay 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:1535% → 35%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
64.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 6 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
64.4%
Maleek Irons run for 3 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
65.2%
Bo Hardy run for 3 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
64.8%
Maleek Irons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
65.4%
Greg Windham pass intercepted Justin Lucas at the Ohio 24, Justin Lucas return for 6 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3969% → 76%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
68.7%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
68.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
68.7%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 9Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
68.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 11Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
75.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:4724% → 40%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
75.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 3 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+11
76.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Elijah Ball for 11 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
75.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 14 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
74.7%
Greg Windham run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
74.3%
Greg Windham run for 8 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
74.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+1
72.6%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+21
73.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Maleek Irons for 21 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
72.9%
Sebastian Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3067% → 65%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
65.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Smith for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
64.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ohio 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
65.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5167% → 65%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
67.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 14:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
66.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Casey Sayles for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
64.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5735% → 36%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
65.5%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+15
63.4%
Windham, Greg pass incomplete to White, Papi, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Weatherspoon, Kris) 15 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
62.5%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+8
63.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
62.5%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
64.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
15 plays · 42 yds · 5:0866% → 70%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
66.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
65.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+7
67.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 7 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
69.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 4 yds Tevaris McCormick fumbled, forced by Javon Hagan, recovered by Troy Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
68.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 7 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.0%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Offside (Casey Sayles) to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 5
OWN 39
0
71.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sam LettonSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
71.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-3
71.3%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+7
68.9%
Young, Nyck pass incomplete to Barker, Kaleb, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (Knock, DL) 7 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
72.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
72.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
72.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
69.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ohio 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
69.0%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Ohio 6Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+1
69.4%
Greg Windham pass intercepted Trevon Sanders return for 1 yd to the Ohio 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:0421% → 18%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
80.3%
Bo Hardy run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+9
81.1%
Greg Windham run for 9 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.1%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
80.2%
Bo Hardy run for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
80.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
80.4%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
81.9%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
81.6%
Louie Zervos 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:2283% → 86%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
83.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
83.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 7 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
84.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
84.5%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+18
83.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 18 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
50
+6
87.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
85.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25MISSED FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:3517% → 16%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+34
83.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 34 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
80.5%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
80.6%
Dorian Brown run for 7 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
80.9%
Greg Windham run for 8 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-1
79.0%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
82.1%
Greg Windham run for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
83.9%
Louie Zervos 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3589% → 90%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
89.4%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
89.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+4
89.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+20
89.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds , Papi White returns for 20 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:4615% → 17%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
84.8%
Bo Hardy run for 3 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+31
84.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 31 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
84.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 7 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+3
84.7%
Bo Hardy run for 3 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
84.6%
Greg Windham run for 1 yd to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-15
84.6%
OHIO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jake Pruehs) to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 24
OPP 26
0
87.1%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Tim HeltonSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 24
OPP 26
+6
88.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 6 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
83.0%
Louie Zervos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1988% → 90%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
89.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
90.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
90.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:558% → 9%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.6%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
91.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 11 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.1%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
90.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+9
91.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Bo Hardy for 9 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:4695% → 95%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 38Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-4
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:47
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q2 0:59
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 4:52
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com