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LT

Louisiana Tech 48 at Navy 45

NAVY
2016 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Dec 23, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-28.6NAVY 10.2%Ryan Higgins pass complete to CarlosHenderson for 4 yds for a TD,(Jonathan Barnes KICK)AWAY 45 - HOME 38 · Q4 4:12
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:12 · Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−30.2Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Garbage-time factor−12.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.0Time remaining−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:10: Boston Scott run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +21.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:05: Chris High run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +32.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:12: Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +28.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:46: Malcolm Perry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +38.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +35.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:48LT 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:50LT 4th & 17 at LT 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:04LT 4th & 12 at LT 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:02NAVY 4th & 9 at LT 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:00NAVY 4th & 1 at LT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−4.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−6.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:16NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:35LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:18LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:49NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:17NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:15LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:35LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:53NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:10LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:05NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:12LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:46NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5549% → 49%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
51.2%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+5
51.2%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.2%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
Ryan Higgins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:2351% → 51%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
50.9%
Dishan Romine run for 20 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.0%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the LaTch 48 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by LaTch Prince SamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:3250% → 50%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
50.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 12 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
50.2%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
50.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+29
50.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 29 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
49.9%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the Navy 4Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Kam McKnight, broken up by Patrick ForrestalSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
49.6%
Jonathan Barnes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4250% → 49%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
49.9%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+2
49.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+6
49.0%
Darryl Bonner run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Alex Barta punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4751% → 51%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
48.7%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Micah Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
48.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Trent TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
48.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos Henderson, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 17
OWN 20
+18
49.0%
Gerald Shouse punt for 53 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 18 yds to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4249% → 53%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
49.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
49.2%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
49.4%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
49.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Craig ScottSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
49.4%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+38
48.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to Chris High for 38 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
49.7%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the LaTch 3Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.0%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3549% → 55%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Tyris WootenSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
51.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 10 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.6%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
50.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Conner Smith for 19 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
50.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
49.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
49.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Jarred Craft for 1 yd to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
49.4%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
45.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:1245% → 52%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
44.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+64
52.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 64 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3150% → 48%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
50.4%
Ryan Higgins sacked by Jarvis Polu for a loss of 13 yards to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+11
50.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 11 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
51.2%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+13
51.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 41 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 13 yds to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:3853% → 58%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
52.7%
Abey, Zach rush for no gain to the NAVY48, PENALTY LATECH face mask (Brown, Aaron) 15 yards to the LATECH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.Similar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
53.2%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+30
53.9%
Zach Abey run for 30 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.3%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5545% → 53%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.5%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Conner SmithSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
56.0%
Ryan Higgins run for 2 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Jones) to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
54.1%
Boston Scott run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
53.9%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
53.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 15 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
53.0%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 8 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Daiquan Thomasson) to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
53.0%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
53.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Conner Smith for 1 yd to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.7%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:4850% → 56%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
50.1%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
49.7%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
49.2%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
51.8%
Zach Abey run for 11 yds to the LaTch 41 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by Navy Darryl Bonner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
52.3%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
52.4%
Tre Walker run for 15 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
52.0%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
52.0%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-2
50.6%
Zach Abey sacked by Russell Farris for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
55.5%
Bennett Moehring 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 1:0949% → 63%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
51.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 13 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.7%
Ryan Higgins run for 5 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
49.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+12
51.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 12 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
48.2%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-5
46.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 49Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+51
36.8%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 51 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:1841% → 39%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
41.0%
Zach Abey sacked by Aaron Brown and Dae'Von Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
39.7%
Zach Abey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+3
38.1%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
39.0%
Alex Barta punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 6:2739% → 60%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
39.4%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
39.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 6 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
38.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
39.0%
Dishan Romine run for 17 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
39.8%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
40.2%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
39.7%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
40.5%
Dishan Romine run for 10 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
40.7%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
40.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
40.2%
Zach Abey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
39.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
41.9%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+24
60.2%
Chris High run for 24 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16FUMBLE
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5649% → 57%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.1%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
51.2%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyris Wooten) to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
48.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 16 yds Trent Taylor fumbled, forced by Jarid Ryan, recovered by LaTch Ethan Reed for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
46.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Alfred Smith for 7 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
45.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
45.6%
Ryan Higgins run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
44.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 27 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
43.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
43.4%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 9 Jarred Craft fumbled, forced by Jackson Pittman, recovered by Navy Brandon JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4454% → 49%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
53.6%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+5
54.6%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
54.6%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5051% → 81%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
49.3%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
49.8%
Ryan Higgins pass incomplete to Conner Smith LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+15
51.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 15 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+41
44.9%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 41 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
41.4%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
19.5%
Boston Scott run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5523% → 60%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.2%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
22.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
21.7%
Zach Abey pass complete to Brandon Colon for 10 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
23.4%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+16
22.9%
Zach Abey pass complete to John Brown III for 16 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
26.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 9 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+10
26.2%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the LaTch 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
26.0%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 11 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
27.2%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
60.0%
Chris High run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:4352% → 90%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
47.9%
Ryan Higgins sacked by D.J. Palmore for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+9
49.8%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
47.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+4
44.0%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
42.8%
Jarred Craft run for 16 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
40.6%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 13 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
37.9%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
38.7%
Ryan Higgins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+15
41.1%
Higgins, Ryan pass pass intended for Henderson, Carlos intercepted by Ryan, Jarid at the NAVY0, Ryan, Jarid return 0 yards to the NAVY0, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (Ryan, Jarid) 15 yards to the NAVY11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH.Similar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
37.7%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
38.9%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
10.2%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:1425% → 64%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
24.8%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 15 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Bradford ejected for targeting) to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
63.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:3052% → 95%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
48.3%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Conner Smith for 5 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+21
48.1%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 21 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
43.4%
Jarred Craft run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
41.4%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Trent Taylor for 23 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
36.6%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+9
36.5%
Ryan Higgins pass complete to Conner Smith for 9 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.4%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the Navy 14Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
36.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+32
5.1%
Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:46
Malcolm Perry run for 30 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+38.8
FG · Q4 0:00
Jonathan Barnes 32 yd FG GOOD
-35.5
TD · Q4 9:05
Chris High run for 9 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+32.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com