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BYU

BYU 24 at Wyoming 21

WYO
2016 · San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl · Dec 21, 2016 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:13 · Ethan Wood punt for 23 yds, downed at the BYU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior−15.7Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:35: Brian Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +17.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 2:42: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Tanner Balderree for 5 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +12.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:07: Jamaal Williams run for 36 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +11.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:11: Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 23 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +26.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 29 — BYU win probability +21.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:19BYU 4th & 3 at WYO 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:51BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:51WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:48BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13WYO 4th & 3 at BYU 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−2.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32WYO 4th & 11 at BYU 25, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:08BYU 4th & 2 at WYO 9, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:45WYO 4th & 10 at BYU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:22WYO 4th & 2 at BYU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−1.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:35WYO 4th & 1 at BYU 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−2.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−9.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:47WYO 4th & 2 at BYU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:11BYU 4th & 10 at WYO 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:44BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−12.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:38BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:35WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:42BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:07BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:35WYO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:11WYO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2672% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
28.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
28.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, downed at the Wyom 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1929% → 30%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
29.2%
Shaun Wick run for 3 yds to the Wyom 11Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+28
29.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 28 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
29.9%
WYOMING Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Wyom 34Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
30.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 5 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
30.3%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
30.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
30.1%
Ethan Wood punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3770% → 70%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+36
30.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 36 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
30.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 12 yds to the Wyom 28 Jamaal Williams fumbled, recovered by Wyom Lucas Wacha at the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2031% → 31%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
30.7%
Shaun Wick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 14Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+7
30.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 7 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
30.9%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+7
30.8%
Ethan Wood punt for 43 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4469% → 68%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
31.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
31.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
31.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5432% → 32%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
31.9%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the Wyom 18Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
32.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
32.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 1 yd to the Wyom 24Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+5
32.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 49 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 5 yds to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5768% → 66%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
32.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+1
32.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
32.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
32.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
32.7%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
33.4%
BYU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+50
34.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 47 yds , Austin Conway returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 45 WYOMING Penalty, Illegal Block (Robert Priester) to the Wyom 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0834% → 35%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+17
34.4%
Shaun Wick run for 17 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
35.0%
Shaun Wick run for 3 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
35.3%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
34.9%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3767% → 71%
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.7%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Wyom 3Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.7%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1730% → 32%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.3%
Shaun Wick run for 1 yd to the Wyom 26Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
30.4%
Brian Hill run for 5 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
30.3%
Brian Hill run for 8 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
31.1%
Brian Hill run for 9 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
32.1%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
32.0%
Shaun Wick run for 6 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
32.6%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-1
32.6%
Brian Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
31.9%
Ethan Wood punt for 23 yds, downed at the BYU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:4369% → 70%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
30.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 13 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
30.2%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Andrew Wingard return for 20 yds to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4333% → 31%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
33.0%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Davis) to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
34.0%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-5
33.8%
WYOMING Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+3
32.8%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
32.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 11
OPP 25
0
30.9%
Nick Szpor pass incomplete to Austin FortSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1770% → 73%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
29.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Tanner BalderreeSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
30.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
28.4%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+19
27.8%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the WYOMING 44 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
27.5%
KJ Hall run for 1 yd to the Wyom 33Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+16
27.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 16 yds to the Wyom 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
27.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Wyom 12Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
27.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the Wyom 11Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+2
27.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Wyom 9Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
26.9%
Rhett Almond 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 36 yds · 2:1027% → 24%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
26.9%
Brian Hill run for 5 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-10
27.1%
WYOMING Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brinkley Jolly) to the Wyom 13Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+7
26.5%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 7 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+10
23.8%
Brian Hill run for 10 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
24.5%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the Wyom 33 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kesni Tausinga) to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
25.7%
Josh Allen run for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
25.9%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
25.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake MaulhardtSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
24.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 37 yds , Micah Hannemann returns for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
25.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16TD
17 plays · 60 yds · 8:1526% → 44%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
25.7%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the Wyom 40Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
25.3%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
24.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 8 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
26.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 6 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
26.1%
Brian Hill run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
25.8%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Shaun Wick run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
25.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Shaun Wick for 6 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
25.5%
Shaun Wick run for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+9
24.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Josh Harshman for 9 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
26.9%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
26.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Josh HarshmanSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+8
25.3%
Josh Allen run for 8 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
24.1%
Josh Allen run for 3 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
26.8%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.3%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4064% → 81%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
35.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 16 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
33.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
33.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
33.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 5 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+39
32.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 39 yds to the Wyom 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Wyom 5Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
31.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Tanner Balderree for 5 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:4721% → 23%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
20.6%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+21
20.7%
Josh Allen run for 6 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
23.1%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Dayan Lake return for 14 yds to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:2981% → 94%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
18.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
18.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 12 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
18.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
17.9%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Wyom 36Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
6.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 36 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:208% → 18%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
7.9%
Brian Hill run for 9 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
8.1%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
7.9%
Shaun Wick run for 4 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
7.8%
Shaun Wick run for 4 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
7.0%
Brian Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
7.1%
Brian Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 13
50
+8
5.7%
Josh Allen run for 8 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
6.1%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+14
6.1%
Shaun Wick run for 14 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
6.6%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
6.3%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+11
6.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 11 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
6.3%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
17.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 9 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1687% → 89%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
13.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 30 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
10.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-3
9.7%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 45Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
10.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+5
10.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 31 yds , Austin Conway returns for 5 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:5210% → 38%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
10.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 11 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
10.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 30 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
11.3%
Josh Allen sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 11 yards to the WYOMING 49 WYOMING Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Josh Allen) to the Wyom 49Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 21
OWN 49
0
10.2%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the Wyom 49Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+22
9.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 22 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
13.4%
Josh Allen run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
11.0%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
37.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 23 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 0:1981% → 86%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
19.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
15.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 21
-11
14.5%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Kevin Prosser for a loss of 11 yards to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+2
14.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 43 yds , Austin Conway returns for 2 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24INT
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:1328% → 32%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
27.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Brian Hill for 19 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
32.4%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 20 yds to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4089% → 93%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
11.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-2
7.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:11
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 23 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+26.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:20
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 29
-21.4
TD · Q3 6:35
Brian Hill run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com