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CMU

Central Michigan 10 at Tulsa 55

TLSA
2016 · Miami Beach Bowl · Dec 19, 2016 · Marlins Park
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.5TLSA 99.2%James Flanders 17 Yd Run (RedfordJones Kick)AWAY 3 - HOME 34 · Q3 9:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:50 · James Flanders 17 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+30.7Score differential+23.8Pregame prior+10.9Blowout margin+9.1Garbage-time factor+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:24: Josh Atkinson 5 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +1.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:55: Brian Eavey 26 Yd Field Goal — CMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:03: Keevan Lucas 13 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:59: Chris Minter 4 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:50: James Flanders 17 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:53CMU 4th & 5 at TLSA 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55TLSA 4th & 12 at CMU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55CMU 4th & 7 at TLSA 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:18TLSA 4th & 9 at CMU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:54CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:34CMU 4th & 10 at TLSA 36, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:50TLSA 4th & 2 at CMU 17, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 33, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:21CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 28, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:31TLSA 4th & 2 at CMU 35, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:09CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 34, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44TLSA 4th & 5 at CMU 5, up 45
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:18CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 17, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:24TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:59TLSA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:50TLSA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:53TLSA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:16TLSA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:49TLSA Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:21CMU Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4725% → 25%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
75.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 15 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
75.4%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
75.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+3
75.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
75.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
17 plays · 93 yds · 5:2175% → 77%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
75.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+13
75.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
75.0%
James Flanders run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
74.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
74.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 4
50
+7
75.0%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
75.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
75.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
75.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
75.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
75.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+7
74.6%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
74.8%
James Flanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 9Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
74.7%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.5%
Josh Atkinson 5 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0524% → 24%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
76.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 17 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.7%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
75.4%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
75.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
75.8%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Jeremy Brady return for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:0576% → 77%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
76.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
76.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
76.8%
Dane Evans run for 19 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
76.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Jabari Dean for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+2
76.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
76.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
76.5%
Redford Jones 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:4524% → 25%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+36
76.4%
Mark Chapman run for 36 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
75.6%
Jonathan Ward pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
74.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
75.1%
Brian Eavey 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:2276% → 77%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
76.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
76.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
76.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
76.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 10 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
77.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+8
77.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
77.3%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+6
76.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
76.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
76.8%
Redford Jones 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7INT
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:2023% → 23%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
77.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 14 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
76.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Craig Suits for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+6
77.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
77.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 14 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
76.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
77.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+15
78.1%
TULSA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Kolton Shindelar) to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST down. Kolton Shindelar ejected from the game for Targeting. Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
76.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
76.6%
Cooper Rush run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 12 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+6
76.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
76.7%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted, touchback. Kerwin Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3778% → 89%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.4%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+21
78.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 21 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
79.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 30 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
80.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+6
80.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
79.8%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
80.4%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
89.0%
Keevan Lucas 13 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5714% → 13%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
86.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
86.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
87.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Austin StewartSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
87.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 1:4689% → 95%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
89.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+11
89.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
89.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
89.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
89.5%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
90.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 24 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.8%
Chris Minter 4 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:477% → 7%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
92.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
93.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 11 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
93.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:217% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
93.0%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+13
93.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 13 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
92.6%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-9
94.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+8
94.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 8 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 10
OPP 36
-8
94.8%
Cooper Rush sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3596% → 99%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
95.8%
James Flanders run for 31 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.9%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
96.0%
James Flanders run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
96.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+5
95.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+17
99.2%
James Flanders 17 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
99.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-4
99.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+2
99.3%
Jack Sheldon punt for 46 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.6%
Keevan Lucas run for 9 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+13
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Chris Minter for 13 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.6%
Keevan Lucas 28 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:231% → 0%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Damon TerrySimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-7
99.6%
Cooper Rush sacked by Jesse Brubaker for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Jack Sheldon punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
99.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+7
99.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.7%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+5
99.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+19
99.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 19 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
99.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+3
99.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Keevan Lucas 11 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18INT TD
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 3 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Damon TerrySimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 9 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
99.8%
Devon Spalding run for 7 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Mark Chapman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
50
+1
99.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+66
99.9%
Jesse Brubaker 66 Yd Interception Return (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 6 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 7 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Touching (Anthony Rice) to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 35 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Jahray Hayes 13 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:39100% → 100%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+16
99.9%
Ryan Rubley pass complete to Rob Riederer for 16 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:160% → 0%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Damon TerrySimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
99.9%
Raymond Taylor run for 17 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 4 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 7 yds to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for no gain to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for no gain to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
100.0%
Raymond Taylor run for 1 yd to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 6 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+1
100.0%
Cooper Rush run for 1 yd to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+20
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 20 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
50
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
50
0
100.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Austin StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:03
Keevan Lucas 13 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)
+8.6
TD · Q2 0:59
Chris Minter 4 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)
+4.7
TD · Q3 9:50
James Flanders 17 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com