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USM

Southern Miss 28 at Louisiana 21

UL
2016 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl · Dec 17, 2016 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:19 · Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 25 yds to the LaLaf 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−11.1Garbage-time factor−4.0Pregame prior−2.4Score differential−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:28: Dion Ray run for 12 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +11.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:28: SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — USM win probability +3.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:42: Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +13.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:26: Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +14.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:10: Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +20.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:30UL 4th & 17 at UL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39UL 4th & 14 at UL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:09USM 4th & 7 at USM 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50UL 4th & 9 at UL 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03USM 4th & 12 at UL 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03UL 4th & 18 at UL 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42USM 4th & 22 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:35UL 4th & 2 at USM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−2.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:19USM 4th & 3 at USM 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:09UL 4th & 27 at UL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:26UL 4th & 12 at USM 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:12USM 4th & 7 at USM 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:57UL 4th & 1 at UL 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:28UL 4th & 7 at USM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:39USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:17USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:15UL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:28UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:42USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:26USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:10UL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:3043% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
43.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
43.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+7
43.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
43.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
43.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.4%
Al Riles pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
43.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
43.4%
Dion Ray run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
43.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-8
44.6%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
44.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 28 yds, downed at the SoMis 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:5756% → 58%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+55
44.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 55 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
43.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
42.3%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.9%
Jordan Davis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
42.8%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
42.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1258% → 62%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+66
42.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 66 yds to the LaLaf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
41.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 6Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:5540% → 44%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
39.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
40.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Robert Hunt) to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
39.9%
Anthony Jennings run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+9
39.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 9 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+11
41.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
41.2%
Dion Ray pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+23
41.2%
Anthony Jennings run for 9 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Curtis Mikell) to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
41.6%
Darius Hoggins run for no gain to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
41.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 10 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
42.1%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
42.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
42.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
42.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
42.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
43.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-7
42.8%
Anthony Jennings sacked by D'Nerius Antoine for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+3
41.4%
Steven Coutts punt for 39 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:0859% → 60%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
40.8%
[Shotgun], HOWARD, Keon rush quarterback run for 1 yard to the USM28 (Mitchell, D.), PENALTY LA offside defense (Brown, Savion) 5 yards to the USM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+24
40.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 24 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
39.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 7 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
39.1%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
39.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 10 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
39.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 14 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Cameron Tom) to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+8
39.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-5
39.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
39.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
40.2%
Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
41.2%
Dion Ray run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-10
41.1%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 23
OWN 8
+5
40.6%
Jordan Wright run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 18
OWN 13
0
40.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
38.4%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
38.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 14 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Tez Parks, broken up by Kevon PerrySimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
37.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+15
38.5%
Nick Mullens sacked by Tre'maine Lightfoot for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 29 Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Otha Peters , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:3043% → 51%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
43.2%
Al Riles run for 5 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Sherrod Ruff) to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
54.5%
Dion Ray run for 12 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
Q2 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
0
50.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:4153% → 50%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.1%
Allenzae Staggers pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
47.7%
George Payne run for 10 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
46.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Ty Pollard) to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 15
OWN 37
-7
48.0%
Nick Mullens sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 22
OWN 30
0
48.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
49.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 22
OWN 30
+1
50.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 54 yds , Levarious Varnado returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:0052% → 55%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
51.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 12 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
52.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
53.3%
[No Huddle, Shotgun], Jennings, A. sacked for loss of 1 yard to the LA39, PENALTY USM offside defense (THIGPEN, Xavier) 5 yards to the LA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
54.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
53.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.3%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Michael Jacquet, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+10
54.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 10 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
54.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+12
55.3%
Jordan Wright run for 12 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
55.3%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted, touchback. Tarvarius Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:0051% → 56%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
48.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+20
49.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
46.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Devin Farrior) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+9
48.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
45.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+25
46.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 25 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
42.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
42.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
44.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1853% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.5%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
46.2%
[No Huddle, Shotgun], MULLENS, Nick slant pass incomplete to STAGGERS, A., PENALTY LA holding (Mitchell, D.) 10 yards to the USM41, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
46.0%
[Shotgun], MULLENS, Nick middle pass incomplete to STAGGERS, A., PENALTY LA targeting (Walker, Tracy) 15 yards to the LA44, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-15
44.4%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Ito rush over left end for 6 yards to the LA38 (Howard, D.), PENALTY USM personal foul (FARRIOR, Devin) 15 yards to the USM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 41
+18
46.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 18 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+14
44.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
43.2%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
43.2%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Savion BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+7
44.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 7 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
43.2%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
43.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0035% → 37%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
34.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 9 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
36.9%
Anthony Jennings run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
35.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Picasso Nelson Jr.) to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
38.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
38.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
38.5%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-2
36.8%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
30.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+3
32.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+8
32.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+25
31.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 25 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 1:0736% → 29%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
36.3%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-15
34.8%
[Shotgun], Jennings, A. rush quarterback run for 8 yards to the USM49 (PARKER, Elijah), PENALTY LA personal foul (Gordon, Eddie) 15 yards to the LA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 27
OWN 28
0
30.6%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 27
OWN 28
0
29.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Jared Johnson, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 27
OWN 28
+55
28.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 45 yds, downed at the ULLAFAYTTE 27 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Korey Robertson) to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 6:1472% → 93%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
28.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
29.1%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+15
29.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 15 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
26.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+15
28.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 15 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
24.8%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
23.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 8 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Christian GoodlettSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
23.0%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+12
23.1%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
22.1%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Ito rush over right tackle for no gain to the LA23 (Lee, Taboris), PENALTY USM tripping (FREEMAN, Wil) 15 yards to the LA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+24
23.1%
Ito Smith run for 24 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+13
22.1%
Ito Smith run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.3%
[Shotgun], Jennings, A. sideline pass complete to Bradley, J. for 7 yards to the LA32 (MIKELL, Curtis), PENALTY USM offside defense (RUFF, Sherrod) 5 yards to the LA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+7
13.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
12.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Nick Byrne, broken up by Tarvarius MooreSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
12.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 16 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
14.1%
Dion Ray run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
13.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-3
13.7%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
12.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0093% → 94%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
6.7%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+15
6.6%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
6.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+53
6.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Travis Crawford return for 53 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:107% → 28%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
7.4%
Al Riles run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
7.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+5
7.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
7.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.9%
Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:5387% → 90%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
13.1%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
12.6%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
11.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
11.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
9.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
10.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:3414% → 9%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
14.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 20 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
15.9%
Anthony Jennings run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
17.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
15.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
14.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
12.7%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Xavier Thigpen and Dylan Bradley for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+12
8.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 12 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
10.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
8.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:10
Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+20.5
TD · Q4 12:26
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 10:42
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com