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APP

App State 31 at Toledo 28

TOL
2016 · Raycom Media Camellia Bowl · Dec 17, 2016 · Cramton Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:26 · Nick Ellis punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior+3.9Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:04: Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +15.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:30: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +19.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:16: Samuel Vucelich kickoff for 59 yds , Darrynton Evans return for 94 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +27.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:43: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +22.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:14: Michael Rubino 39 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +19.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 12:27TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:16APP 4th & 2 at APP 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:45TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:34APP 4th & 5 at TOL 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−0.3
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:52APP 4th & 14 at APP 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:26TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:08TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04APP 4th & 3 at APP 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:14APP 4th & 14 at TOL 43, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:09APP 4th & 19 at APP 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:05TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:04APP 4th & 1 at TOL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−3.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−13.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:11APP 4th & 13 at TOL 21, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.9 ptsWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%−5.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−19.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:40TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−9.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:14APP 4th & 1 at TOL 22, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%−8.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−29.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:48TOL 4th & 7 at APP 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−18.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−31.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:31APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:03APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:45TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:04APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:30TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:16APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:43TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:2356% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
56.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 29 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+3
56.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
56.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
56.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
56.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4944% → 47%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
56.2%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.1%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
56.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil CapelSimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
56.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Letman, Zy, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Martin, Jordan) 13 yards to the TOLEDO48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
55.8%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
55.7%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
55.8%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
55.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
55.4%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
53.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2654% → 57%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
53.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 58 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
55.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
54.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
57.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3144% → 44%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
56.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 6 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
56.0%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+3
56.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
56.1%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
55.8%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+3
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
56.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1657% → 56%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
56.5%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
56.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry SwansonSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 12
OWN 8
-4
56.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Michael Roberts) to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+9
56.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 9 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
55.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 59 yds, downed at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0144% → 45%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
55.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
55.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil CapelSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+20
56.4%
Marcus Cox run for 20 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
54.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
54.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 9 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
54.3%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
54.3%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
54.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
55.4%
Taylor Lamb punt for 11 yds, downed at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2157% → 56%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
57.1%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+4
57.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
55.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, downed at the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5345% → 43%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
55.5%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
56.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
56.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Brad AbsherSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+25
57.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds , Corey Jones returns for 25 yds to the TOLEDO 44 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1958% → 58%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
58.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
57.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 3:1544% → 58%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+22
56.0%
Marcus Cox run for 22 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
55.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 12 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
54.1%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
52.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 15 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
52.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 28 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
51.1%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
42.4%
Marcus Cox run for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4046% → 44%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
45.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-1
45.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+8
43.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+55
44.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the TOLEDO 28 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Desmond Franklin) to the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5656% → 56%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
44.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Deltron HopkinsSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
44.4%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
43.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil CapelSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
44.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 30 yds, downed at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:1347% → 61%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
46.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 25 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
61.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 2:2146% → 45%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
53.9%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
54.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
50
0
50.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
50
0
51.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil CapelSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
50
+11
52.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
50.7%
Ike Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
52.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
53.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
55.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
58.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4246% → 44%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
53.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 13 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
52.3%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
53.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Zy LetmanSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-8
54.7%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
56.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5558% → 57%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
58.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
57.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
56.0%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
56.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5446% → 65%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.6%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+28
54.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 28 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
50.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
50.4%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
50.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+15
52.6%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Meadors, Shaedon (TEAM), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Martin, Jordan) 15 yards to the TOLEDO22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
48.8%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
48.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+6
50.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 6 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
34.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:1939% → 61%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
38.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
39.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
42.0%
Logan Woodside sacked by Myquon Stout for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 11
50
+15
39.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 15 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
43.0%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
42.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+18
38.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 18 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
41.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the AppSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
40.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2534% → 65%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
34.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+58
35.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 58 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 72 yds · 4:5945% → 46%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
54.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
55.6%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+5
57.1%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Capel, Jaquil, PENALTY TOLEDO offside (Stepec, John) 5 yards to the APPALCHAN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
56.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 9 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
53.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 13 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.4%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
50.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+31
52.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 31 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
45.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
44.1%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
46.3%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
43.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
44.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Zy LetmanSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-3
47.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 13
OPP 21
0
53.8%
Bentlee Critcher pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1758% → 55%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
57.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Antonious Sims for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+1
57.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 16
OWN 15
0
55.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 16
OWN 15
0
54.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:1151% → 74%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
48.9%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+26
50.2%
Marcus Cox run for 26 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
43.7%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-3
41.5%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+10
46.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 10 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
26.3%
Michael Rubino 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25MISSED FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:0540% → 34%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
40.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 17 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
42.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
45.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
45.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
45.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
39.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 2
OPP 8
-5
35.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
34.0%
Jameson Vest 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2187% → 95%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
13.3%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
11.5%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
9.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-3
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:16
Samuel Vucelich kickoff for 59 yds , Darrynton Evans return for 94 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
-27.2
TD · Q3 0:43
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+22.3
TD · Q3 2:30
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com