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UNM

New Mexico 23 at UTSA 20

UTSA
2016 · Gildan New Mexico Bowl · Dec 17, 2016 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+27.1UTSA 47.3%Dalton Sturm pass complete to TrevorStevens for 16 yds for a TD, (VictorFalcon KICK)AWAY 16 - HOME 13 · Q4 9:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:43 · Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior−3.4Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−4.5Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Jason Sanders 52 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +5.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:54: Teriyon Gipson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders PAT BLOCKED) — UNM win probability +11.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:43: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +27.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 2:22: Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +17.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +31.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UNM 20, tied
    Close callWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41UTSA 4th & 9 at UNM 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57UNM 4th & 8 at UTSA 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24UTSA 4th & 7 at UNM 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:12UNM 4th & 1 at UTSA 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−2.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:32UTSA 4th & 10 at UNM 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:10UNM 4th & 1 at UTSA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−2.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−12.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:24UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:37UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:24UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−4.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:36UTSA 4th & 15 at UNM 35, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:00UNM 4th & 1 at UTSA 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−10.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−31.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:04UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:54UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:43UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:22UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:25UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:0930% → 33%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.8%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
30.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 38 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
30.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
31.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
31.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
31.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
32.1%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+9
32.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 9 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
32.7%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 13Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+3
33.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
32.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
33.2%
Victor Falcon 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5367% → 66%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
33.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 27 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
33.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
33.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-3
33.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
34.4%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2635% → 35%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
34.5%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
34.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+3
34.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:0465% → 68%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
35.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
50
+2
34.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
35.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 11 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
34.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 8 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+6
34.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
34.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 17 yds to the TexSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
35.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.2%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:3634% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
33.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 23 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
35.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 18 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
36.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
37.0%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
36.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
35.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 4:0366% → 67%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
33.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
33.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+16
34.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
50
+4
33.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
32.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
33.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
33.5%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 6:2736% → 40%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
36.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+7
35.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
34.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
36.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
36.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+23
36.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 8 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
38.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
38.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the NMex 7Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
37.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
38.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NMex 6Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
38.3%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
38.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
38.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 0
OPP 11
-15
36.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
+16
35.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 16 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
40.4%
Victor Falcon 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8END OF HALF
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:1863% → 71%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
36.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
36.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 14 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
35.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 18 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+52
29.3%
Jason Sanders 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0065% → 77%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
34.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+25
35.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 25 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
32.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
32.4%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+3
31.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
32.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
31.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
31.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+8
33.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 8 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
34.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:1524% → 24%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
23.5%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+36
23.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 36 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
25.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
25.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
25.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
24.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2874% → 75%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
26.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 9Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+4
26.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+1
24.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
23.5%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
23.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
24.1%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
24.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2224% → 26%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
24.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+2
25.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
25.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+6
24.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
24.6%
Dalton Sturm run for 8 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
26.4%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Lee Crosby return for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5079% → 77%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
21.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
21.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-10
21.8%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Josiah Tauaefa for a loss of 10 yards to the NMex 18Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+3
22.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 38 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 5:1723% → 47%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
23.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
50
+2
23.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
23.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
23.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 12 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
24.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+3
22.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-5
20.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 35Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
18.9%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+19
14.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 19 yds to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
20.1%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the NMex 16Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
47.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:0867% → 95%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.6%
Dameon Gamblin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+34
32.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 34 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
27.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
28.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+6
27.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
23.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+15
21.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 15 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
21.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
20.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
20.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
22.7%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 1:456% → 39%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
5.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 9 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+22
5.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 22 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
6.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-5
5.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+20
5.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the NMex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
7.2%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
6.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-5
5.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+15
5.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
7.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17END OF GAME
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:2395% → 95%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
+31.4
TD · Q4 9:43
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
+27.1
TD · Q4 2:22
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com