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NMSU

New Mexico State 28 at South Alabama 35

USA
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:17 · Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+3.0Home team on offense+12.9Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:40: Conner Cramer run for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:25: Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — NMSU win probability +23.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:10: Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 76 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +29.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:53: Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +21.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Conner Cramer pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 8 at USA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:27NMSU 4th & 24 at NMSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:41NMSU 4th & 9 at USA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 3 at USA 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03USA 4th & 5 at USA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:37NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:23USA 4th & 4 at USA 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:54NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:11USA 4th & 7 at NMSU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40NMSU 4th & 1 at USA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−4.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:24NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 45, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:10NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:17NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:28NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:41USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:47NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:39USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:40NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:25NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:10USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:53USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:28USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:25NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
81.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
81.0%
Milton Revell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
81.0%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+6
81.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 49 yds , Jaden Wright returns for 6 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
80.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+8
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
80.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-9
80.6%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 24
OWN 15
0
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 24
OWN 15
+2
80.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 44 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:4081% → 81%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
80.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Grant Powell for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+51
81.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 51 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
80.9%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
80.8%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
80.8%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
80.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 11 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.7%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
80.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 11 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
80.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Quinton DentSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
80.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
80.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5INT
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+24
80.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 24 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
80.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+21
81.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
81.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+8
81.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
81.1%
Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
81.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 5 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+8
81.2%
Dami Ayoola run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
81.2%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
81.2%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted DeMarcus Owens return for no gain to the NMxSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
80.6%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
80.6%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
80.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
80.5%
Hall,Xavier rush for 7 yards to the NMSU36 (Buchanan, Roman), PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans,Anthony) 10 yards to the NMSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 20
OWN 19
-1
80.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 21
OWN 18
+3
80.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
81.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 30 yds, downed at the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 18
OWN 21
+8
80.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0681% → 80%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
81.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
81.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
80.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+9
80.2%
Dallas Davis run for 9 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jalen Thompson return for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
80.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
80.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
79.8%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 12 Tyler Rogers fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Tyler RogersSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+12
80.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
80.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Devon EarlSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
80.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 40 Dami Ayoola fumbled, recovered by SAlab Nigel LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
80.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+7
80.1%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
80.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
79.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-10
79.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 20
OWN 8
+3
80.7%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 17
OWN 11
0
80.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
81.8%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+10
80.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 10 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
81.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
81.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 3 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
81.4%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
80.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2220% → 32%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
80.0%
Conner Cramer run for 50 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
68.3%
Larry Rose III run for 30 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0074% → 76%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.7%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-4
74.0%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+21
72.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 21 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
75.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
75.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 41 Xavier Johnson fumbled, forced by Jaden Wright, recovered by NMxSt Jaden Wright , return for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+51
68.0%
Larry Rose III run for 51 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.3%
Conner Cramer run for no gain to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
66.3%
Conner Cramer run for 1 yd to the SAlab 6 Conner Cramer fumbled, forced by Neiko Robinson, recovered by SAlab Quinton DentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17END OF HALF
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:4672% → 71%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
71.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
71.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+7
71.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 7 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
72.5%
Dallas Davis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
72.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
71.6%
Dallas Davis run for 12 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
71.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
67.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
67.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
68.5%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 10 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
66.0%
Xavier Hall run for 17 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
65.3%
Conner Cramer pass intercepted Devon Earl return for 23 yds to the NMxSt 17 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (-17 Yards) to the NMxSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:3074% → 83%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
74.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
74.1%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+14
73.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 14 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
74.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
73.1%
Dallas Davis run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
74.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
74.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:5921% → 38%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
79.6%
Conner Cramer run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
78.1%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
78.4%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Neiko RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
79.2%
Conner Cramer pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
50
+1
76.8%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
77.0%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
78.1%
Conner Cramer run for 8 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
62.3%
Conner Cramer run for 41 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0068% → 71%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
67.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 9 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
69.7%
Dallas Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
69.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
70.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+23
70.9%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 23 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:5938% → 70%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
62.3%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+16
61.4%
Larry Rose III run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
59.1%
Conner Cramer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
60.3%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+2
61.8%
Conner Cramer run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+38
63.5%
Gamar Girdy run for 38 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
56.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+12
56.3%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Anthony Muse for 12 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.3%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.9%
Conner Cramer run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
64.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 76 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
58.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
59.9%
Conner Cramer run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
58.6%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
61.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds, downed at the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:5263% → 91%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
63.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 13 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
63.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
66.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
65.4%
Dallas Davis sacked by Kourtland Busby for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+29
63.1%
Dallas Davis run for 29 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
68.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
69.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
69.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
67.8%
Dallas Davis run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
69.6%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+14
69.6%
Dami Ayoola run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.0%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:3614% → 15%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.9%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
86.4%
Larry Rose III run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 45 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Gregory Hogan) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-3
83.5%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+2
85.7%
Conner Cramer run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
85.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:4090% → 98%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.9%
Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+24
89.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 24 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
91.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
91.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+35
98.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 35 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:033% → 16%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
97.4%
Conner Cramer sacked by Finess Middleton for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 18
OWN 16
0
97.5%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+8
97.5%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+18
97.6%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 18 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
97.2%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Larry Rose III for 12 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
97.1%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Xavier Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+13
97.2%
Conner Cramer sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Finess Middleton) to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.9%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
84.2%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:10
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 76 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+29.4
TD · Q4 14:25
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-23.6
TD · Q4 6:53
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com