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TROY

Troy 24 at Georgia Southern 28

GASO
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:09 · Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds , Myles Campbell returns for 16 yds to the GeoSo 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+17.0+8.50−8.5−17.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior−7.8Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:09: Kevin Ellison 24 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick) — GASO win probability +13.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:28: Kevin Ellison 54 Yd Run, (Y. Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +14.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:28: Tevaris McCormick 16 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Ryan Kay Kick) — TROY win probability +23.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  4. TD · Q4 12:22: Jordan Chunn 4 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick) — TROY win probability +26.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:46: BJ Johnson III 64 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick) — GASO win probability +26.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45TROY 4th & 3 at GASO 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45GASO 4th & 7 at TROY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00TROY 4th & 1 at GASO 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34GASO 4th & 4 at TROY 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:02GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:31TROY 4th & 15 at TROY 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:54GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:09TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:22TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:59GASO 4th & 20 at GASO 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−3.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.3%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:46TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:10GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 40, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:19TROY 4th & 1 at GASO 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−9.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−14.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:22TROY 4th & 8 at GASO 9, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:24GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:08TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:09GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:28GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:28TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:22TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:46GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 17 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
33.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
33.3%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
33.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
33.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
34.5%
TROY Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
34.5%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Kevin Ellison for 9 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
34.6%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Keigan Williams for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
34.6%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
34.7%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 27 Favian Upshaw fumbled, forced by Seth Calloway, recovered by Troy Rashad Dillard , return for 6 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3166% → 65%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormick, broken up by Ironhead GallonSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
34.4%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 29 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon SilversSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+9
34.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 9 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
35.2%
Ryan Kay 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
35.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 6 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
35.3%
Montay Crockett run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
35.4%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
35.6%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
35.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.7%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
35.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
35.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
35.2%
Matt Flynn punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
36.8%
B.J. Smith run for 18 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
36.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
36.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
36.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-2
36.5%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 6:1038% → 47%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
38.2%
Matt Breida run for 14 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
38.5%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
38.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+6
38.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 6 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
40.4%
Myles Campbell run for 7 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
40.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
39.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
40.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
40.4%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
40.4%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
46.5%
BJ Johnson III 12 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:0955% → 64%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
44.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Smith for 13 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
44.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
42.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+5
43.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
43.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+20
43.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 20 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
42.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+6
42.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+7
43.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.6%
Jordan Chunn 3 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
39.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 1 yd to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
39.1%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
38.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
37.9%
Matt Flynn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
37.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-6
37.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-2
39.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
40.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 51 yds, downed at the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:2440% → 37%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
39.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
40.2%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 9 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
40.3%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Obe Fortune for 16 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
42.7%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 9 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-8
41.8%
Favian Upshaw sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
38.5%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Keigan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
37.4%
Matt Flynn punt for 45 yds, downed at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
37.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5139% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
39.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 23 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
42.4%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
43.1%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
42.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
43.0%
Matt Breida run for 15 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
56.7%
Kevin Ellison 24 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
52.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
52.8%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Ukeme Eligwe for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+16
54.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 49 yds , Myles Campbell returns for 16 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:4959% → 73%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
59.2%
Myles Campbell run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+54
73.2%
Kevin Ellison 54 Yd Run, (Y. Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
69.2%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+5
70.2%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete to McCormick, Tevaris, PENALTY GS offside (Tre Griffin) 5 yards to the TROY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
68.8%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
69.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+42
71.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds , Myles Campbell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:4873% → 73%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
73.3%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
73.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Favian Upshaw run for no gain to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
73.2%
BJ Johnson III pass complete to Mike Jackson for 43 yards to the TROY27 (Rookard, Cedarius), PENALTY GS ineligible downfield on pass (Jeremiah Culbreth) 5 yards to the GS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-4
72.9%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 19
OWN 21
-1
74.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Mike Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 20
OWN 20
0
73.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 34 yds, fair catch by B.J. Smith at the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:5028% → 46%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
72.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
71.3%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
71.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 10 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
69.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Darius Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
70.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+14
78.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 14 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
54.5%
Tevaris McCormick 16 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Ryan Kay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2264% → 66%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
63.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
63.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+20
62.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 20 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
66.5%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
65.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Keigan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+13
63.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
66.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:5641% → 71%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
58.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 22 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
56.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+14
56.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
56.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.4%
Jordan Chunn 4 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3638% → 69%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
37.9%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
37.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 9 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
37.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
39.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
42.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for 7 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
43.3%
Wesley Fields rush for no gain to the TROY49 (Lloyd, William), PENALTY GS personal foul 15 yards to the GS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+64
69.3%
BJ Johnson III 64 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
65.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.8%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
67.1%
TROY Penalty, false start (Emanuel Thompson) to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
69.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
70.9%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+9
70.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 9 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
72.1%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-2
69.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 44 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
18 plays · 77 yds · 5:5831% → 14%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
69.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 18 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
67.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 7 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
64.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
64.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
65.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
62.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 7 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
61.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
62.2%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
80.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
74.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 20 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
73.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
73.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 1 yd to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
83.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for no gain to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 9
0
86.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:22
Jordan Chunn 4 Yd Run (Ryan Kay Kick)
-26.8
TD · Q4 9:46
BJ Johnson III 64 Yd pass from Kevin Ellison (Younghoe Koo Kick)
+26
TD · Q3 2:28
Tevaris McCormick 16 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (Ryan Kay Kick)
-23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com