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TROY

Troy 40 at Texas State 7

TXST
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:48 · Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 28 Brandon McDowell fumbled, recovered by TexSt Jashon Waddy
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior−25.8Home team on offense−46.3Score differential−23.3Garbage-time factor−11.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:18: Josh Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +0.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:20: Ryan Kay 21 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:33: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay PAT BLOCKED) — TROY win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:10: Stedman Mayberry run for 10 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK) — TXST win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 10 at TXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:57TROY 4th & 2 at TXST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:57TXST 4th & 21 at TXST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:36TXST 4th & 21 at TXST 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:12TROY 4th & 1 at TXST 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:20TROY 4th & 3 at TXST 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:22TXST 4th & 8 at TROY 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:51TROY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:37TXST 4th & 16 at TROY 36, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:48TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 34, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 48, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:43TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 41, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:05TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 40, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:34TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 12, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:20TROY 4th & 10 at TXST 10, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:03TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:18TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:33TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14TROY Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:44TROY Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:10TXST Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
5.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 4 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
5.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
5.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
5.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
5.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-2
5.0%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
5.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
5.6%
Connor White run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+8
5.6%
Connor White pass complete to Elijah King for 8 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+12
5.6%
Connor White pass intercepted Jalen Rountree return for 12 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:4894% → 94%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
5.8%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
5.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Dominic Walker for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+9
5.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Justin Wyatt for 9 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+4
5.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
5.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
5.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
6.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
6.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
6.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
6.2%
Connor White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
6.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+3
6.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-8
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Connor WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+4
6.2%
Connor White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 16
OWN 24
-5
6.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 21
OWN 19
0
6.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:0793% → 94%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
6.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
6.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
6.1%
Josh Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
6.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
6.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
6.5%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
6.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 9 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
6.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
6.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
6.2%
B.J. Smith run for 11 yds to the TEXSTATE 46 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Wyatt) to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
6.2%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
6.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
6.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:457% → 7%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
6.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
6.8%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 6 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
6.8%
Eddie Printz run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-4
6.8%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
6.7%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 11
OWN 27
-10
6.9%
Schrade, Gabe rush over left end for 15 yards to the TXST42 (Rookard, Cedarius), PENALTY TXST holding (Alexcee, Damani) 10 yards to the TXST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
6.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5294% → 95%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
6.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
6.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
6.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+1
6.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
6.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 15 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
6.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 10 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
6.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
6.4%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
6.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Gabe Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
5.5%
Ryan Kay 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10INT
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:527% → 7%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.5%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
6.6%
Eddie Printz run for 11 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
6.8%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
6.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 9 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
6.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
6.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 14 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
7.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-4
7.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+20
7.0%
Eddie Printz pass intercepted Jalen Rountree return for 20 yds to the Troy 20 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:4494% → 95%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
5.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 22 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
5.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
5.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
5.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Justin Wyatt for 6 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
5.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
4.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
5.0%
Eddie Printz run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
4.9%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+17
4.8%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Mason Hays for 17 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
5.4%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Mason Hays for 9 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+7
5.5%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Chris French for 7 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
5.7%
Eddie Printz run for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
5.8%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Tyler SiudzinskiSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
5.7%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete, broken up by Junior GnonkondeSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
5.5%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:2496% → 98%
Q2 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
4.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 14 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
3.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
2.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.4%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.6%
Eddie Printz run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:0798% → 99%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
2.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 11 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
2.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 1 yd to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
2.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
2.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 1
50
+2
2.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
2.2%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
1.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Justin WyattSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
2.0%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+15
2.2%
Silvers, Brandon deep out pass incomplete to Douglas, Deondre, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Tiggs, Quinn) 15 yards to the TXST25, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
2.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
2.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+11
1.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 11 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
1.1%
Silvers, Brandon post pass incomplete to Davis, Sidney, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Griffin, Frankie) 12 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
Josh Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.8%
Connor White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
0.8%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 10 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
0.8%
Connor White pass complete to Elijah King for 33 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
0.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-7
0.9%
Connor White run for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
0.8%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
0.7%
Sidney Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
0.7%
Sawyer Smith run for no gain to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
0.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 28 Brandon McDowell fumbled, recovered by TexSt Jashon WaddySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:131% → 1%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.6%
Connor White pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
0.5%
Connor White run for 9 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
0.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
0.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+33
0.6%
Connor White pass complete to Elijah King for 33 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
0.7%
Connor White run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
0.7%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
0.6%
Connor White pass complete to Elijah King for 10 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
0.7%
Connor White run for 1 yd to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
1.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 10 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+19
0.4%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dean Taylor) to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
0.3%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Jeremy Miller and Dean Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+15
0.4%
Smith, Sawyer rush up middle for no gain to the TROY32 (Loyd, Gabe;Davis, Ishmael), PENALTY TXST face mask (Davis, Ishmael) 15 yards to the TROY47, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin WyattSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
0.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
0.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
0.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
0.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
0.3%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Watts for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
0.3%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+13
0.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
0.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-6
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Sawyer SmithSimilar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
0.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.2%
Connor White pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-4
0.2%
Connor White run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Connor White pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:22100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
0.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Andre FlakesSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
0.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 10 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
0.2%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+6
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaleb BarkerSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
0.1%
Ryan Kay 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Connor White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
0.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+9
0.1%
Connor White pass complete to Brendon Rushing for 9 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
0.1%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 8 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Connor White pass incomplete to Brendon RushingSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.1%
Connor White run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 46 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
-1.4
FG · Q2 9:20
Ryan Kay 21 yd FG GOOD
-1
TD · Q2 3:33
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay PAT BLOCKED)
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com