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APP

App State 37 at New Mexico State 7

NMSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.7NMSU 13.2%Michael Rubino 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 11:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:51 · Michael Rubino 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior−37.2Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: Tyrian Taylor 54 Yd pass from Conner Cramer (Parker Davidson Kick) — NMSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:37: Michael Rubino 31 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +3.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:46: Michael Rubino 27 Yd Field Goal — APP win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:03: Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors — APP win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:16: Taylor Lamb 4 Yd Run (Michael Rubino Kick) — APP win probability +4.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:51APP 4th & 3 at NMSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29APP 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:29NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:43NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:11APP 4th & 2 at NMSU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:48APP 4th & 12 at NMSU 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:48NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:56APP 4th & 6 at NMSU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37APP 4th & 8 at NMSU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:07APP 4th & 5 at APP 42, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:46APP 4th & 4 at NMSU 9, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:46NMSU 4th & 5 at APP 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:03APP 4th & 6 at APP 44, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:57NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 43, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:36APP 4th & 7 at NMSU 31, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:35NMSU 4th & 8 at APP 13, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:29APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:06NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:16APP Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:57APP Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1FG
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:0988% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 10 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+63
12.0%
Jalin Moore run for 63 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
12.5%
Cox, Marcus rush for 1 yard to the NMSU0, clock 13:31, PENALTY APP false start 5 yards to the NMSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
12.5%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
12.6%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
13.2%
Michael Rubino 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.3%
Johnathan Boone run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
13.3%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
13.2%
Nick Jeanty run for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
13.2%
Jaleel Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:3186% → 86%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+43
14.1%
Marcus Cox run for 43 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
13.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 24 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
13.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
13.8%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
13.8%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.6%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.9%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
14.0%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
13.8%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
13.7%
Jaleel Scott punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.6%
Nick Jeanty sacked by John Law for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
11.5%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
11.5%
Jaleel Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:2388% → 89%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
11.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 5 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
11.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+19
11.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 19 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
11.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
11.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
11.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+9
11.7%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
11.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-2
11.4%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
10.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Marcus CoxSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
11.2%
Michael Rubino 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
11.8%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
12.0%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
12.1%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+1
12.0%
Jaleel Scott punt for 40 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:5189% → 90%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.7%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
10.6%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
10.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
10.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+16
10.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 16 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
9.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
9.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+9
9.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 9 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
9.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+5
10.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 5 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:2712% → 13%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
11.6%
Conner Cramer run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Tae Hayes) to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
12.3%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+12
12.4%
Xavier Hall run for 12 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
12.6%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
12.5%
Conner Cramer run for 4 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-5
12.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+23
12.2%
Conner Cramer run for 23 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
12.6%
Rose III, Larry rush for loss of 2 yards to the APP14 (Godwin, Okon;Gilchrist, K.), PENALTY NMSU holding (Holland,Abram) 10 yards to the APP22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+5
12.6%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
12.8%
Conner Cramer pass intercepted Josh Thomas return for no gain to the AppSt 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
10.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 24 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
9.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 9 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-1
9.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Darrynton Evans for a loss of 1 yard Darrynton Evans fumbled, forced by Jaden Wright, recovered by NMxSt Noah BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
16.7%
Tyrian Taylor 54 Yd pass from Conner Cramer (Parker Davidson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:2985% → 88%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
15.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 10 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
15.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 3 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
15.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 8 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
14.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
14.7%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+19
15.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 19 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-12
14.7%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 12 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+7
15.3%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+7
15.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
12.1%
Michael Rubino 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0415% → 15%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.2%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.1%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.6%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
14.8%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
14.4%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
14.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 34 yds , Clifton Duck returns for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:2187% → 91%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.0%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
13.1%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+4
12.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+28
13.4%
Bentlee Critcher run for 28 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
12.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
12.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 10 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
12.4%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
12.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 3
OPP 8
-5
12.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+4
11.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
8.9%
Michael Rubino 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.9%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
11.4%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
12.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
12.3%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Anthony Muse for 8 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
12.6%
Conner Cramer run for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-4
12.5%
Conner Cramer sacked by Akeem Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+6
11.8%
Conner Cramer run for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
12.1%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
7.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
7.7%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
7.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 4 yds to the AppSt 44 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
8.2%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 53 yds, downed at the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
9.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-1
9.5%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Royce Caldwell for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 4
0
9.4%
Conner Cramer pass intercepted Mondo Williams return for no gain to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:0794% → 99%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
6.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-14
6.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Taylor Lamb) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 23
OWN 47
+47
6.8%
Marcus Cox run for 47 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
6.3%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.3%
Taylor Lamb 4 Yd Run (Michael Rubino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:163% → 3%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.6%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
2.6%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
2.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.4%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-9
1.4%
Moore, Jalin rush for 7 yards to the APP39 (Perkins,Austin;Butler,Rodney), PENALTY APP holding (Collins, Parker) 9 yards to the APP23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
1.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST down Marcus Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
1.4%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
1.2%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
0.3%
Taylor Lamb 48 Yd Run (Michael Rubino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
0.3%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.3%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Josh ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.3%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
0.3%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Isaiah McIntyre for 1 yd to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+10
0.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 34 yds , Clifton Duck returns for 10 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
0.2%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
0.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
0.2%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
0.2%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
0.1%
Jake Easter run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+1
0.1%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-2
0.2%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
0.1%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
0.1%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
0.1%
Conner Cramer run for 2 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+18
0.1%
Conner Cramer run for 18 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
0.1%
Conner Cramer run for 16 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.1%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
0.1%
Conner Cramer pass complete to Xavier Hall for 2 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
0.1%
Conner Cramer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 8
OPP 13
0
0.1%
Conner Cramer pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:06
Tyrian Taylor 54 Yd pass from Conner Cramer (Parker Davidson Kick)
+7.2
TD · Q3 0:16
Taylor Lamb 4 Yd Run (Michael Rubino Kick)
-4.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:03
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com