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TXST

Texas State 10 at New Mexico State 50

NMSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:40 · Eddie Printz pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 201Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+31.0Pregame prior+1.1Blowout margin+17.6Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:15: Johnathan Boone pass complete to Tyler Rogers for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:28: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 6:49: Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 3:43: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:04: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:38TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:51TXST 4th & 7 at NMSU 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:52NMSU 4th & 5 at TXST 5, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:52TXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:52TXST 4th & 2 at NMSU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:54TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:08NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 44, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:04NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 34, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:38NMSU 4th & 8 at TXST 10, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:54TXST 4th & 9 at NMSU 12, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:46TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 32, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:27NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 31, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:05TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 4, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:44NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 19, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:40TXST 4th & 17 at NMSU 43, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:15NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:28NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:49NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:43NMSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:04NMSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:15NMSU Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:54TXST Touchdown, down 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
67.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
67.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
67.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-2
67.9%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
50
0
67.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Jordan EastlingSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
50
+3
67.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 50 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
67.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 10 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
67.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
67.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+20
67.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 20 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
67.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42 Stedman Mayberry fumbled, forced by Jaden Wright, recovered by NMxSt Terrill HanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0568% → 70%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
67.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+18
67.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Cameron Loos for 18 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
67.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 12 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
67.9%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
67.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.8%
Johnathan Boone pass complete to Tyler Rogers for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
69.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 1 yd Stedman Mayberry fumbled, forced by Stody Bradley, recovered by NMxSt Jacob NwangwaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:3770% → 72%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
69.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
72.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.1%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for 11 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2473% → 76%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
72.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 21 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
72.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
72.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
72.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
76.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.8%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
75.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 19 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
75.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 11 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.3%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Terrill Hanks return for no gain to the NMxSt 41 TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5478% → 85%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
77.5%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
77.6%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+40
77.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 40 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
77.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
77.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:3814% → 10%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
85.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+11
85.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
85.5%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
85.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
85.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+1
85.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
85.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dalton Rocha for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
86.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Teron FitzgeraldSimilar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+7
86.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
89.6%
Marcus Ripley punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
90.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 7 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
89.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
90.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
90.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-5
89.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+9
89.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 9 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
90.2%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
90.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for a loss of 1 yard Tyrian Taylor fumbled, forced by Bryan London, recovered by TexSt Hal VinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
90.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
90.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+5
90.3%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
90.2%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:5592% → 92%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.9%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
50
+4
92.0%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+27
91.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 27 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
92.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
92.0%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
91.2%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
92.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
92.1%
Parker Davidson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0013% → 16%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
85.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Teron FitzgeraldSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
85.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
84.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+6
84.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
84.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
84.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
84.5%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2795% → 97%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.3%
Rogers,Tyler pass incomplete to Taylor,Tyrian (Alexcee, Damani), QB hurry by Davis, Ishmael, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Davis, Ishmael) 15 yards to the NMSU40, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
95.4%
Larry Rose III run for 32 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
95.5%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+9
95.5%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
95.5%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.3%
Rogers,Tyler pass incomplete to Boone,Johnathan, PENALTY TXST pass interference (19) 3 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
94.8%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
94.9%
Rogers,Tyler pass incomplete to Hogan,Gregory (Taylor, An.), PENALTY NMSU illegal block (McMeans,Anthony) 15 yards to the TXST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
0
95.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
97.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:023% → 2%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
97.5%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
97.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-3
97.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3898% → 98%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
98.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+4
98.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+7
98.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 7 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
98.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.3%
White, Connor pass incomplete to Hays, Mason, PENALTY TXST illegal procedure (54) 5 yards to the TXST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
98.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.3%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
98.9%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
98.9%
Rose III, Larry rush for loss of 2 yards to the NMSU41 (Loyd, Gabe;O'Roy, Javante), PENALTY NMSU holding (Holland,Abram) 10 yards to the NMSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+1
98.8%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 yds, downed at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
99.1%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.0%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
99.3%
James Sherman punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 2 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
99.4%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 1
50
+10
99.4%
Xavier Hall run for 10 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.4%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
99.4%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Hal Vinson) to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Rogers,Tyler pass complete to Lottie,Izaiah for 10 yards to the TXST0, clock 05:43, PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass (Lottie,Izaiah) 0 yards to the TXST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
99.6%
Parker Davidson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
99.7%
Connor White sacked by Dalton Rocha for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+45
99.7%
Connor White run for 45 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Connor White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.6%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
99.7%
White, Connor pass incomplete to Hays, Mason, PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Herrington,D) 14 yards to the NMSU13, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.6%
Connor White run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 18 Connor White fumbled, recovered by TexSt Connor WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+6
99.6%
Connor White pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 6 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Connor White pass incomplete to Tyler Siudzinski, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
99.8%
Marcus Ripley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26FG
15 plays · -1 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
99.7%
Larry Rose III run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.8%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 15 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.8%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 19
-57
99.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Jassavia Reese) to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 66
OWN 24
+41
99.8%
Parker Davidson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
99.9%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Chris French for 21 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
99.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
99.9%
James Sherman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaden Wright at the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-8
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 67 yds, downed at the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
99.9%
Eddie Printz pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
99.9%
Eddie Printz run for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+6
99.9%
James Sherman punt for 37 yds , Jaden Wright returns for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 31TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
100.0%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Mason Hays for 43 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
100.0%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Mason Hays for 16 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Eddie Printz run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 10 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 33DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Eddie Printz run for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+18
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
100.0%
Eddie Printz run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+6
100.0%
Eddie Printz pass complete to Jeff Banks for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-9
100.0%
Eddie Printz sacked by Stody Bradley for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Eddie Printz pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
100.0%
Nick Jeanty run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 3:43
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q1 6:49
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q1 8:28
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 25 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com