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ULM

UL Monroe 17 at App State 42

APP
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.7APP 95.4%Taylor Lamb pass complete to BarrettBurns for 3 yds for a TD, (MichaelRubino KICK)AWAY 3 - HOME 21 · Q2 8:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:15 · Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+34.7Home team on offense+11.8Score differential+4.9Garbage-time factor+4.4Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:15: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: Caleb Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +2.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:43: Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:46: Taylor Lamb run for 35 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: Austin Vaughn run for 16 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 7 at APP 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35ULM 4th & 7 at APP 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:12ULM 4th & 3 at APP 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 10 at APP 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:41ULM 4th & 7 at APP 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:15APP 4th & 3 at ULM 3, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:10APP 4th & 6 at ULM 25, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:43ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 37, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:15APP 4th & 3 at ULM 15, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:38APP 4th & 7 at APP 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:13ULM 4th & 7 at APP 12, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:48APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:12APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:15APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:00ULM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:43APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:46APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:56ULM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:08APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 11 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
95.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 6 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+9
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 9 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+2
95.3%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
95.3%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 27 yds, downed at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:3995% → 95%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+40
94.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 40 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
94.7%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+16
94.7%
Marcus Cox run for 16 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
94.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 19 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:066% → 7%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
94.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 15 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
94.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Alec Osborne for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
94.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 10 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
94.4%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+14
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 14 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
94.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
94.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
94.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
93.4%
Craig Ford 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:1693% → 94%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 3 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+10
93.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.5%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+60
94.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 60 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
93.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 13 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.8%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.8%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
93.8%
Evans, Caleb pass intercepted by Alex Gray at the APP30, Alex Gray return to the APP30, Alex Gray for 11 yards to the APP41, out-of-bounds (Vaughn, Austin), PENALTY APP pass interference (Mondo Williams) 15 yards to the APP44, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
93.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-9
93.6%
Caleb Evans sacked by Eric Boggs for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+15
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
93.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Austin Vaughn, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2094% → 93%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
93.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
93.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 37 yds, downed at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
93.3%
Austin Vaughn run for 23 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
93.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 2 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
93.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
93.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:0594% → 95%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
93.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 11 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
93.6%
Jalin Moore run for 26 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
93.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+2
93.7%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+6
93.7%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
93.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Zy Letman, PENALTY ULM offside (Miller, Sam) 5 yards to the ULM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+28
93.7%
Marcus Cox run for 28 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
93.8%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
93.8%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
93.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.7%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:085% → 8%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
95.0%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+5
94.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
94.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
94.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.6%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+6
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 13 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
94.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.8%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 2:4493% → 92%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
92.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 10 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.7%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
92.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
92.9%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
93.1%
Deltron Hopkins run for 18 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.1%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-2
93.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+4
92.8%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 6
OPP 25
0
92.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:108% → 8%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.0%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
92.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1292% → 97%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+30
92.4%
Jalin Moore run for 30 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
92.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+29
92.8%
Jalin Moore run for 29 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
92.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 17 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.3%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 44 yds, downed at the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:1097% → 99%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
96.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 4 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
96.7%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+23
96.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 23 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
96.9%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+9
96.8%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
96.8%
Marcus Cox rush for 15 yards to the ULM10, out-of-bounds (Thompson,Wesley), PENALTY APP holding (Edge-Campbell) 10 yards to the ULM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+35
99.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 35 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.7%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:3999% → 100%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
99.0%
Marcus Cox run for 18 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
99.0%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+6
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 6 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.1%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+9
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 9 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 16 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.1%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
99.1%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:151% → 3%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
99.2%
Marcus Green run for 11 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+22
99.2%
Caleb Evans run for 22 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
99.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 23 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
98.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Jeff Savage) to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+1
98.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+10
98.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jared Mapps for 10 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
96.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 16 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4398% → 100%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.9%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
97.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 21 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
98.0%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.0%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
98.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike Lewis, dropped pass, PENALTY ULM offside (Day, Chase) 5 yards to the ULM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
98.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 7 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Marcus Cox run for 25 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-20
99.3%
Evans, Caleb pass complete to Green, Marcus for loss of 1 yard to the ULM41 (Akeem Davis;Toronto Thomas), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Holley, Ajalen) 20 yards to the ULM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 30
OWN 22
-3
99.5%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 33
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 33
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.7%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
99.7%
J.P. Caruso sacked by Caleb Tucker for 0 yards to the AppSt 48 J.P. Caruso fumbled, recovered by AppSt Colby Gossett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+1
99.7%
J.P. Caruso run for 1 yd to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21INT
13 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.7%
Duke Carter IV run for 6 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+11
99.7%
Caleb Evans run for 11 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Duke Carter IV, broken up by Okon Godwin for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Okon Godwin) to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.7%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+10
99.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.6%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
99.6%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+22
99.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 22 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.6%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
99.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
99.6%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 7
OPP 12
0
99.6%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted, touchback. A.J. Howard return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
99.8%
J.P. Caruso run for 16 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.8%
J.P. Caruso run for 6 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-2
99.9%
Mykel Golden run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
J.P. Caruso run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:43
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 4:00
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-2.6
TD · Q3 8:46
Taylor Lamb run for 35 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com