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USA

South Alabama 35 at UL Monroe 42

ULM
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:16 · Brandon McKee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 72Pregame prior−21.8Home team on offense−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:40: Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +18.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +17.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:44: Thomas Koufie 9 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick) — ULM win probability +27.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:27: Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +30.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: Dami Ayoola run for 14 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +46.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:37USA 4th & 10 at USA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:31USA 4th & 15 at ULM 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 6 at ULM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16ULM 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:16USA 4th & 21 at USA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:26ULM 4th & 7 at USA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:26ULM 4th & 2 at USA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:48ULM 4th & 1 at USA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−2.0
    92% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:35ULM 4th & 5 at USA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:44USA 4th & 5 at ULM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−13.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:07ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:37ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:57USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:34USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:34ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:35USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:40ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:00USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:44ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:27ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−1.8
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:50USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2320% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
19.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+12
19.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
19.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 10 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
20.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Rj Turner for 52 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
20.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+15
20.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 15 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Shaquille WarrenSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
20.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
20.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
20.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
21.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
21.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
21.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+5
21.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 50 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for 5 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 1:1878% → 78%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
22.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
22.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+55
21.7%
Dallas Davis run for 55 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
22.1%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
22.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
22.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
22.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
22.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+4
22.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
22.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6DOWNS
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:2077% → 74%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
23.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 6 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
23.0%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
23.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 8 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
23.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 17 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.6%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
22.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 11 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
22.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
22.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 15 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
22.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-2
22.5%
Dallas Davis sacked by Jaylen Veasley for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 15
OPP 33
0
22.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone Williams, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 15
OPP 33
0
26.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
26.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 6 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
27.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
27.3%
Thomas Koufie run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:1273% → 78%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
26.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Josh Magee) to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+14
26.9%
Dallas Davis run for 14 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+6
25.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
26.1%
Dallas Davis run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
25.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
25.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 8 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh Magee, broken up by Stephen AmoakoSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+4
26.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+7
26.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 7 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
25.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
22.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 24 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:1824% → 26%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
24.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 11 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
24.3%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+19
24.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 19 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
25.7%
Ben Luckett run for 13 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
26.5%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+1
26.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-1
25.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ben Luckett for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
25.5%
Craig Ford 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
24.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 11 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
23.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
23.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-14
23.6%
Dallas Davis sacked by David Griffith and Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 14 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 21
OWN 28
0
25.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:5225% → 43%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
24.6%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
25.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' Perrier, broken up by Randy AllenSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
26.2%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
26.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
25.0%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
26.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
27.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-1
26.3%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 36 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+12
25.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
27.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
27.4%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
26.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Rj TurnerSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+2
25.7%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the SAlab 14 Caleb Evans fumbled, forced by Roman Buchanan, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
27.4%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+4
27.2%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:1266% → 67%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
32.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 4 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone Williams, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
33.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2566% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
33.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 10 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
32.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 21 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
30.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
30.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh Magee, broken up by Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+7
31.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
30.2%
Dallas Davis run for 10 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
30.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-3
30.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Deshawn Applewhite for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+15
31.4%
Davis, Dallas pass incomplete to Magee, Josh (Amoako, Stephen), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Amoako, Stephen) 15 yards to the ULM4, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:5525% → 48%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
25.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
25.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+11
26.6%
Duke Carter IV run for 11 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
27.8%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+13
26.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 13 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
27.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-3
29.1%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+6
26.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Rj Turner for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+16
25.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
29.1%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the SAlab 14Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
29.1%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
47.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:4060% → 80%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
40.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 15 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
39.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
38.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 8 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
37.2%
Davis, Dallas rush for 4 yards to the USA45 (Ingram, Nick), PENALTY ULM OF (Louis, Donald) 5 yards to the USA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+5
36.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+47
35.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 47 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
34.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Steven Foster) to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
34.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.3%
Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:1626% → 59%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
25.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 5 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
27.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
27.5%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
27.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+35
28.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jared Mapps for 35 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
31.7%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
31.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.7%
Thomas Koufie 9 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0054% → 56%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
45.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 10 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
44.1%
Dallas Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+28
42.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 28 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
38.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
39.0%
Dallas Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 37 Dallas Davis fumbled, recovered by SAlabSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+8
43.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 8 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 5
OPP 29
-3
44.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:3754% → 92%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
56.5%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
53.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
58.2%
Koufie, Thomas rush for 2 yards to the ULM49 (Milner, Chason;Wallace, SrClvn), PENALTY USA OF (Allen, Randy) 5 yards to the USA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 5
OPP 48
0
59.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+8
59.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.3%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
59.0%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Turner, R.J., PENALTY USA holding (Dent, Quinton) 10 yards to the USA30, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
61.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 22 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
61.5%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
61.5%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Brown, Xavier (Dent, Quinton), PENALTY USA offside (Wallace, SrClvn) 3 yards to the USA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20INT
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:0013% → 17%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+38
87.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 38 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5393% → 94%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 5 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
93.4%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
93.9%
Thomas Koufie run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
94.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:089% → 63%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
91.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 17 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
89.8%
Davis, Dallas pass incomplete to Everett, Gerald, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Hunter, Tre') 15 yards to the ULM48, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
87.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Tyrone Williams) to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+21
89.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 21 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett, broken up by Tre' HunterSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
84.8%
Dami Ayoola run for 8 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+10
84.9%
Dallas Davis run for 10 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
37.1%
Dami Ayoola run for 14 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23INT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0056% → 60%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
55.6%
PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ULM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
56.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, delay of game (Caleb Evans) to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+21
55.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Rj Turner for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
50
0
61.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
50
+1
61.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Thomas Koufie for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+10
58.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
62.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
62.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+36
60.2%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Chris Henderson return for 36 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
37.4%
Gavin Patterson 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cortez Sisco Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Thomas Koufie run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
62.3%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Turner, R.J., PENALTY USA offside (Buchanan, Roman) 5 yards to the USA11, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
64.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 5 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-1
64.7%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
79.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:0020% → 8%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
80.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
86.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
-5
91.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 27Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
-18
91.7%
Dallas Davis sacked by Cortez Sisco Jr. for a loss of 18 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
Dami Ayoola run for 14 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-46.3
TD · Q4 4:27
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+30.6
TD · Q4 11:44
Thomas Koufie 9 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)
+27
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com