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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:51: Austin Rehkow 29 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +3.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:31: Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +5.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:33: Isaiah Saunders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +11.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:29: Austin Rehkow 50 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +9.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:22: Austin Rehkow 44 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +10.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 8:13UL 4th & 7 at IDHO 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.1%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call67.3%75% to makePunt66.0%−1.2average punt
- Q1 4:51IDHO 4th & 5 at UL 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call33.0%86% to makePunt30.4%−2.5average punt
- Q2 15:00UL 4th & 1 at IDHO 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.1%71% to convertField goal61.8%−1.277% to makePunt58.0%−5.1average punt
- Q2 13:31IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 48, tiedClose callPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 10:05UL 4th & 7 at UL 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.7%average punt
- Q2 0:28UL 4th & 9 at IDHO 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snapGo for it50.2%−2.127% to convertField goalTheir call52.3%86% to makePunt44.2%−8.1average punt
- Q3 15:00UL 4th & 1 at IDHO 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.6%70% to convertField goal55.1%−4.530% to makePunt56.5%−3.1average punt
- Q3 11:00IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 43, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.1%−1.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%average punt
- Q3 10:03UL 4th & 12 at UL 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snapGo for it50.6%−3.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q3 4:29IDHO 4th & 2 at UL 33, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.8%57% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%−3.249% to makePunt49.9%−4.9average punt
- Q3 4:29UL 4th & 4 at UL 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snapGo for it41.5%−1.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00IDHO 4th & 2 at UL 46, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it68.3%57% to convertField goal64.6%−3.723% to makePuntTheir call66.5%−1.8average punt
- Q4 13:58UL 4th & 19 at UL 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it27.6%−6.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q4 7:22IDHO 4th & 2 at UL 27, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it79.1%57% to convertField goalTheir call77.2%−1.862% to makePunt69.6%−9.5average punt
- Q4 7:22UL 4th & 15 at UL 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it11.9%−2.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q4 2:33IDHO 4th & 5 at UL 33, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.6%42% to convertField goal91.2%−0.449% to makePuntTheir call89.9%−1.7average punt
- Q4 2:26UL 4th & 7 at UL 39, down 10Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:15IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.4%97% to makeGo for two31.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:31UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.2%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:33IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.1%97% to makeGo for two45.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4529% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 15 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
71.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 6 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
71.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 14 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
71.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29 IDAHO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+13
71.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 13 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0269% → 69%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
68.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 52 yds to the Idaho 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
69.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 26Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-3
69.3%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Aikeem Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 20 Anthony Jennings fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3FG11 plays · 64 yds · 3:2231% → 35%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+33
68.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 33 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+10
68.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Aaron Duckworth for 10 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
68.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 9 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD18 plays · 65 yds · 6:2066% → 70%
IDHODrive 5PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
ULDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
67.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Matt Barnes for 3 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7TD11 plays · 51 yds · 4:2436% → 49%
Q2 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+13
63.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 13 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+12
64.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 12 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+11
63.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 11 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
63.0%
Linehan, Matt middle pass incomplete to Watson, Deon, PENALTY UL pass interference (Miller, Terik) 3 yards to the UL2, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG17 plays · 63 yds · 4:0555% → 57%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
57.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Nick Byrne for 4 yds to the Idaho 40Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
57.2%
Jennings, Anthony rush up middle for loss of 2 yards to the IDAHO41, PENALTY IDAHO face mask (Hall, Ed) 15 yards to the IDAHO24, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
55.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for no gain to the Idaho 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9END OF HALF6 plays · 29 yds · 0:2046% → 46%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
53.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Denzal Brantley for 13 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10DOWNS11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
58.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
56.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 13 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+5
59.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Jordan Wright for 5 yds to the Idaho 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+5
58.7%
IDAHO Penalty, Defensive offside (Joseph Wysocki) to the Idaho 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
55.5%
Austin Rehkow punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gary Haynes at the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
54.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Tony Lashley) to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
54.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 12 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+13
54.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Nick Byrne for 13 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-10
57.1%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Kaden Elliss for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
52.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Alfonso Onunwor at the Idaho 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 13FG8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3350% → 62%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
49.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 2 yds Jacob Sannon fumbled, forced by Simeon Thomas,Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
47.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 20 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
47.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+4
41.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Nick Byrne for 4 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3462% → 66%
ULDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q4 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-14
35.3%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Kevin Shelton for a loss of 14 yards to the LaLaf 11 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, intentional grounding (Anthony Jennings) to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
33.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Alfonso Onunwor at the Idaho 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17FG10 plays · 33 yds · 5:3272% → 88%
ULDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+6
15.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Nick Byrne for 6 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Michael Jacquet, broken up by Jayshawn JordanSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
15.8%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Aikeem Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
15.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Ed HallSimilar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
14.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alfonso Onunwor at the Idaho 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2592% → 95%
Q4 2:33
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
5.4%
Austin Rehkow punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Gary Haynes at the LaLaf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+11
6.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 11 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
6.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 13 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
6.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-4
5.9%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Kaden Elliss for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:33
Isaiah Saunders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-11.6
FG · Q4 7:22
Austin Rehkow 44 yd FG GOOD
-10.4
FG · Q3 4:29
Austin Rehkow 50 yd FG GOOD
-9.2