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TXST

Texas State 10 at App State 35

APP
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:03 · Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+33.5Score differential+18.8Blowout margin+12.1Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:09: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 31 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:45: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Mock Adams for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 5 yds to the AppSt 42 — APP win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:59: Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK) — TXST win probability +2.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:36: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 9:38TXST 4th & 7 at APP 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31APP 4th & 7 at APP 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:40TXST 4th & 3 at APP 48, up 3
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:50TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:51TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54APP 4th & 3 at APP 24, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:10TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 20, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53APP 4th & 5 at APP 29, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 37, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:09APP 4th & 7 at APP 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at APP 4, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:53APP 4th & 7 at APP 18, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01TXST 4th & 1 at APP 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:03APP 4th & 9 at TXST 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:50TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 27, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:10APP 4th & 14 at APP 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:00TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:50APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:01APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:09APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:45APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:59TXST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:36APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:223% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 10 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 13 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 10 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 4 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
96.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 8 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 11 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
96.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 26
-2
96.9%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+17
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 7 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (John Law) to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.9%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-1
96.9%
Tyler Siudzinski run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
96.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
95.9%
Marcus Ripley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
95.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
95.9%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
95.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
95.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:554% → 5%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
95.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+10
95.5%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
95.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 21 yds, downed at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5495% → 96%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
95.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Mock Adams for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
95.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.3%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
95.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to S. Meadors, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor, An.) 15 yards to the TXST37, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.5%
Marcus Cox run for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dezmin Reed for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
95.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 13 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for 9 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3095% → 96%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
94.8%
Jalin Moore run for 16 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
95.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
50
+12
95.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
95.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-5
95.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
94.5%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+8
94.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
94.6%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+10
94.6%
Jalin Moore run for 10 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-8
95.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+5
95.3%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Lumi Kaba punt for 43 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for no gain to the AppSt 17 Jaquil Capel fumbled, recovered by AppSt Jaquil CapelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
95.1%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
95.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+8
95.0%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.8%
Jericho Worrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
94.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jericho Worrell for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-1
95.0%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Eric Boggs return for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4795% → 97%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
95.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+1
95.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+31
96.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 31 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:594% → 4%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
96.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 20 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-8
96.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Myquon Stout and Rashaad Townes for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 3:1697% → 98%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.6%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
96.6%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+61
96.5%
Jalin Moore run for 61 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
96.7%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
96.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Mock Adams for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:034% → 4%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
95.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler JonesSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 5 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
98.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 7 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.9%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+21
98.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 21 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
98.8%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil CapelSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
98.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-2
98.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
99.1%
Marcus Cox rush for no gain to the APP28 (Taylor, Dean), PENALTY APP illegal block (Jamie Collmar) 14 yards to the APP14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 24
OWN 14
+4
99.0%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
99.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaylan BarbourSimilar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+13
99.0%
Marcus Cox run for 13 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt blocked by Anthony D. Taylor blocked by Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:251% → 4%
Q3 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
98.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:1497% → 99%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.4%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
97.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+14
97.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 14 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
97.5%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
97.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 21 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.5%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+11
97.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 11 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
97.5%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20DOWNS
19 plays · 71 yds · 6:361% → 1%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.0%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
99.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
99.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
50
-5
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+16
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 16 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 9 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Teron Fitzgerald for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+7
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 7 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 5 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Teron FitzgeraldSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+5
98.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (A.J. Howard) to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the AppSt 6Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 3 yds to the AppSt 3Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
99.6%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
99.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 1 yd to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Mock Adams, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+18
99.5%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 46 , Brandon McDowell returns for 18 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.4%
Thurman Morbley run for 6 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
99.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
50
-8
99.7%
J.P. Caruso pass complete to Barrett Burns for 7 yds to the APPALCHAN 43 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Colby Gossett) to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-3
99.7%
J.P. Caruso pass complete to Jaquil Capel for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+12
99.7%
J.P. Caruso pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 12 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
99.8%
J.P. Caruso run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-1
99.8%
J.P. Caruso sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Fred Nixon for 14 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 8 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
99.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Myquon Stout) to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Giuliano Cattaneo) to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Fred NixonSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Clifton Duck at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:59
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)
-2.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:35
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 5 yds to the AppSt 42
+2.3
TD · Q3 6:36
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com