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UL

Louisiana 27 at Texas State 3

TXST
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:35 · Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior−27.3Home team on offense+0.4Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:53: Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +4.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:56: Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:13: Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 37 — UL win probability +5.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:14: Raymond Calais run for 15 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:17: Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 18 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:37TXST 4th & 4 at UL 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39UL 4th & 17 at TXST 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 8 at UL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:03UL 4th & 2 at UL 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:43TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41UL 4th & 15 at UL 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:28TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53UL 4th & 22 at UL 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:50TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:11UL 4th & 1 at TXST 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−1.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:15TXST 4th & 8 at UL 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:13UL 4th & 3 at UL 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at UL 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 11 at UL 46, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 8:53UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:56UL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:17UL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:2321% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
21.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 21 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
21.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
21.0%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+20
21.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 20 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
21.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
21.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+4
21.0%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
21.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
21.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
21.0%
Tyler Watts run for no gain to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
21.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
23.7%
Marcus Ripley 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
23.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
23.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 15 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
23.2%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted Javante O'Roy return for no gain to the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
24.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 1 yd to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+7
24.1%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+3
24.0%
Tyler Tutt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
24.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Taboris Lee and Jarvis Jeffries for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+5
24.1%
Tyler Tutt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
24.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Simeon Thomas) to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+8
24.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 8 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
24.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe Schrade, broken up by Tre'maine LightfootSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
24.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Mason Hays for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
24.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:3074% → 72%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
26.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
26.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
26.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
26.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
26.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 10 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
25.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 39 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
25.4%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+1
25.4%
Anthony Jennings run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 14
OPP 16
-3
25.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
26.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
27.7%
Stevie Artigue 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:3228% → 29%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
28.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 17 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
28.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-3
29.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
28.7%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
29.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
29.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
30.2%
Eddie Printz run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-5
29.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
28.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
28.9%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+11
29.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-1
29.1%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 2
OWN 17
+23
29.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 23 yds to the LaLaf 45 Brandon McDowell fumbled, forced by Nick Byrne, recovered by LaLaf Travis CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2672% → 77%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
28.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
50
+10
28.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 10 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
28.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
27.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 6 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
27.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+10
27.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 10 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
27.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
27.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
24.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
24.8%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-6
24.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 12
OWN 10
-5
23.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 17
OWN 5
0
23.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 62 yds, downed at the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
23.5%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
23.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-10
23.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 9 yds to the LaLaf 45 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding (-19 Yards) to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+2
24.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+10
25.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 38 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Mason Hays) to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0125% → 26%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
25.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
25.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
26.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+3
25.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
24.7%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-2
25.7%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
25.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 2:1975% → 82%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
24.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 7 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
24.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
24.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
24.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 5 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
23.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Darius HogginsSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
24.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
23.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 14 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
22.7%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Jacquet, Michael, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor, Anthony J.) 15 yards to the TXST37, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
21.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
21.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+7
20.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 7 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
18.0%
Stevie Artigue 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -12 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
21.7%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Teron Fitzgerald for a loss of 10 yards to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+8
22.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-5
22.7%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (D'Aquin Withrow) to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+13
22.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-5
22.5%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 27
-13
23.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 22
OWN 14
0
23.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
22.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
21.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
50
0
21.9%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Simeon Thomas return for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2480% → 91%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
20.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+14
20.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
20.0%
Jordan Wright run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
19.6%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Grant Horst) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+8
20.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 8 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
20.1%
Jordan Wright run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
19.6%
Jordan Wright run for 22 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
19.9%
Jordan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
11.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 8 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+1
11.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 1 yd to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
11.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
11.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-6
11.7%
Tyler Jones sacked by Kevon Perry for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 21
OWN 4
+5
11.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+24
11.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 23 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
8.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
8.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
8.5%
Jordan Wright run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
9.3%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 39 yds · 0:2611% → 12%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
10.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 13 yds Gabe Schrade fumbled, forced by Reginald Miles, recovered by TexSt Elijah King for a 1ST down , return for 24 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
12.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
12.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for no gain to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+2
11.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
11.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.8%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
6.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gary Haynes for 7 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
6.7%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
7.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 34 yds · 0:359% → 10%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
9.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 12 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
9.4%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
10.0%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
9.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
10.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
10.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+6
9.1%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Karmichael Dunbar) to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
9.9%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
10.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.4%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
10.3%
Jones, Tyler rush for 5 yards to the UL40 (Peters, Otha), PENALTY TXST holding 10 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+13
9.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 13 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+1
10.3%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-5
10.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Mason Hays) to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
9.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Mason Hays, broken up by Simeon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:5796% → 99%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
4.2%
Raymond Calais run for 15 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
4.2%
Raymond Calais run for 16 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
4.1%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
4.1%
Al Riles run for 3 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+18
1.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 18 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
1.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brendon Rushing for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
1.4%
Stedman Mayberry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-3
1.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
1.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jordan Wright at the LaLaf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22END OF GAME
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
0.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
0.8%
Darius Hoggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
0.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.8%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
0.8%
Jordan Davis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
0.8%
Jordan Davis run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
0.8%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-5
0.8%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+19
0.9%
Jordan Davis run for 19 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
0.7%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.8%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:56
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-8.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:14
Raymond Calais run for 15 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down
-5.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:13
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 37
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com