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GASO

Georgia Southern 22 at New Mexico State 19

NMSU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.2NMSU 47.1%Younghoe Koo 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 12 · Q3 0:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:59 · Younghoe Koo 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior−12.2Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:04: Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:22: Parker Davidson 30 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 9 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo PAT MISSED) — GASO win probability +16.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:21: Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 42 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +14.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:19: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 32 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +29.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:43GASO 4th & 8 at NMSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53GASO 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53NMSU 4th & 5 at GASO 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:58GASO 4th & 15 at GASO 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:03NMSU 4th & 8 at GASO 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56NMSU 4th & 14 at GASO 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:47GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:51NMSU 4th & 3 at GASO 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:22NMSU 4th & 9 at GASO 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:41NMSU 4th & 10 at GASO 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−11.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:41GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 28, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:59GASO 4th & 9 at NMSU 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−15.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−5.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:21NMSU 4th & 2 at GASO 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−2.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:19GASO 4th & 5 at NMSU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:04NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:54GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:21GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:19NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:1786% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.7%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
13.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+21
13.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Keigan Williams for 21 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
13.7%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+8
13.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
13.7%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
13.7%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+18
13.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 18 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
13.7%
Wesley Fields run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
13.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
13.7%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
13.7%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
13.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
15.9%
Younghoe Koo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
16.0%
Larry Rose run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
16.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
16.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
15.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3INT
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+58
16.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 58 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
15.9%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
15.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
16.0%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted, touchback. Jaden Wright return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
16.9%
Rogers,Tyler pass complete to Hogan,Gregory for 9 yards to the NMSU30 (J. Moon), PENALTY NMSU holding (Candelarie,D.) 10 yards to the NMSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+14
16.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Cameron Loos for 14 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
16.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 16 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
17.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
17.1%
Larry Rose run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
17.3%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
17.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2782% → 82%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
18.3%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
18.1%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
18.2%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+13
18.0%
Seth Shuman pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 13 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
17.9%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to Wesley FieldsSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
17.9%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+15
17.9%
Wesley Fields run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
17.6%
Seth Shuman pass complete to L.A. Ramsby for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+23
17.6%
Seth Shuman pass complete to Mike Jackson for 23 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
17.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
17.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.0%
Seth Shuman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
18.3%
Younghoe Koo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4919% → 26%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.8%
Larry Rose run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
18.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Clayton GranchSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+35
18.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 35 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-19
20.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-19 Yards) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 29
OWN 38
+6
19.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+13
19.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 13 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
19.6%
Larry Rose run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+7
19.3%
Larry Rose run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
20.5%
Larry Rose run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Battle Jr.) to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
22.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
50
+3
21.5%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
21.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-10
21.7%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Cedric Wilcots II for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
23.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrian Taylor at the NMxSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:4025% → 31%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
25.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+18
25.1%
Xavier Hall run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
25.5%
Hall,Xavier rush for loss of 1 yard to the NMSU26 (D. Roper;32), PENALTY NMSU holding (McMeans,Anthony) 10 yards to the NMSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+23
25.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 23 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
26.4%
Larry Rose run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
27.2%
Larry Rose run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
29.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for no gain to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
29.8%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
29.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
30.9%
Parker Davidson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
29.4%
Wesley Fields run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
27.7%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
27.7%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
28.0%
Seth Shuman pass intercepted Dalton Herrington return for no gain to the NMxSt 45 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
33.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+18
31.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 18 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
33.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+1
32.5%
Larry Rose run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
32.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
31.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
30.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
31.8%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
32.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+1
32.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
33.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 59 yds, downed at the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
33.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
34.1%
Xavier Hall run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
34.2%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
36.1%
Larry Rose run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
35.4%
Larry Rose run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
36.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
36.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
36.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-2
36.8%
Larry Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
35.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.2%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to Matt BreidaSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
37.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 3:3236% → 47%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
35.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Cedric Wilcots II for 13 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+26
36.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose for 11 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Jay Bowdry) to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.8%
Larry Rose run for no gain to the GeoSo 40 Larry Rose fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Larry RoseSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
38.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-8
38.2%
Rogers,Tyler rush for 6 yards to the GS26 (C. DeLaRosa), PENALTY NMSU holding (Doxtater,Sage) 8 yards to the GS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+16
37.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
39.4%
Larry Rose run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+7
39.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
39.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Cedric Wilcots IISimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
39.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Sean FreemanSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+1
38.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
47.1%
Parker Davidson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15FUMBLE
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
44.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
44.4%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+2
43.8%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
44.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
44.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 3 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
43.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
43.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-1
43.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+16
45.4%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Noah Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 17 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Kourtland Busby , return for 0 yards , return for 16 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4756% → 53%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry RoseSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
56.0%
Larry Rose run for no gain to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
55.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
52.8%
Parker Davidson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.0%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to Montay Crockett, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
49.4%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
48.6%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
50.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.4%
Larry Rose run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
55.8%
Larry Rose run for no gain to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+4
53.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds Gregory Hogan fumbled, forced by Jamal Johnson, recovered by GeoSo Jessie LiptrotSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2554% → 50%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
46.2%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+11
46.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
43.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
44.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
44.9%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
44.9%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-8
47.0%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Stody Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
47.1%
Younghoe Koo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
49.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5658% → 74%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
42.0%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+6
42.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
26.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 9 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.9%
Larry Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
31.4%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
29.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Cedric Wilcots II for 16 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.5%
Larry Rose run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
33.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-6
31.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ukeme Eligwe and Chris DeLaRosa for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
29.2%
Peyton Theisler puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:2374% → 89%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
25.6%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
25.7%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-10
25.3%
M. Breida rush for no gain to the NMSU32 (Butler,Rodney;Reese,Jassavia), PENALTY GS holding (A. Kwon) 10 yards to the NMSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+42
10.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 42 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24INT
13 plays · 49 yds · 0:0012% → 15%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Joshua Moon) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
13.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Clayton Granch for 16 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
14.5%
Larry Rose run for no gain to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-13
14.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Jamal Johnson for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 23
OWN 43
+10
11.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive holding (Darius Jones Jr.) to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
14.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
13.9%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
14.8%
Larry Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+11
13.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
16.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for a loss of 1 yard Gregory Hogan fumbled, recovered by NMxStSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+3
15.7%
Larry Rose run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+19
14.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Joshua Moon return for 19 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:5991% → 94%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
8.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+9
9.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to L.A. Ramsby for 9 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-2
8.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+21
9.0%
Seth Shuman pass complete to Keigan Williams for 21 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
8.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
7.8%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to L.A. RamsbySimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
8.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
6.1%
Seth Shuman pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III, broken up by DeMarcus Owens GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:535% → 37%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian Taylor, broken up by Sean FreemanSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
4.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 12 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
5.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 23 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
36.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 32 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0490% → 89%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-2
9.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-2
11.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:19
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 32 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q4 14:54
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 9 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo PAT MISSED)
-16.7
TD · Q4 10:21
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 42 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com