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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:55 · Austin Rehkow punt for 52 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for 29 yds to the AppSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:04: Austin Rehkow 46 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +3.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:00: Michael Rubino 24 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +2.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:02: Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Clifton Duck return for 44 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +6.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 3:43: Austin Rehkow 23 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +3.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:09: Jalin Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK) — APP win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 6IDHO made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 15:00IDHO 4th & 11 at IDHO 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q1 9:41APP 4th & 6 at IDHO 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.5%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call90.5%88% to makePunt90.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:41IDHO 4th & 6 at APP 37, down 3Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.5%40% to convertField goal9.4%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call9.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:02IDHO 4th & 8 at APP 15, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call10.4%83% to makePunt8.7%−1.7average punt
- Q2 12:55APP 4th & 3 at APP 40, up 7Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snapGo for it89.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:49IDHO 4th & 6 at APP 46, down 7Close callPunted · 11.7% before the snapGo for it11.7%40% to convertField goal11.1%−0.623% to makePuntTheir call11.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:53APP 4th & 9 at IDHO 39, up 7Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.1%32% to convertField goal87.9%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call88.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:04IDHO 4th & 7 at APP 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snapGo for it13.9%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%58% to makePunt10.6%−3.3average punt
- Q3 11:00APP 4th & 7 at IDHO 7, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.1%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call83.4%91% to makePunt79.1%−4.3average punt
- Q3 9:55IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 29, down 14Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it8.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 6:16APP 4th & 7 at IDHO 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call93.1%91% to makePunt88.8%−4.2average punt
- Q3 3:43IDHO 4th & 3 at APP 6, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snapGo for it5.1%46% to convertField goalTheir call4.5%−0.591% to makePunt0.1%−4.9average punt
- Q4 15:00APP 4th & 4 at APP 47, up 14Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:49IDHO 4th & 15 at APP 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call1.1%83% to makePunt0.2%−0.9average punt
- Q4 4:14IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 42, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:04IDHO 4th & 6 at APP 8, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.232% to convertField goal0.4%90% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IDHO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 1:43APP Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:02APP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:09APP Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:14APP Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:04IDHO Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
92.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Mondo WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+27
92.7%
Austin Rehkow punt for 40 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for 27 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG9 plays · 27 yds · 3:4792% → 92%
Q1 13:28
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
92.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 6 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
92.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 8 yds to the Idaho 17Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
92.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 1 yd to the Idaho 10Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
92.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett Burns, broken up by Armond HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 12 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 4 yds to the Idaho 41Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+14
91.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 14 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
91.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Josh Herman for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1490% → 91%
Q1 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+18
90.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Mock Adams for 18 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
90.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 9 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
90.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 6 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5FG11 plays · 60 yds · 3:419% → 11%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 9 yds to the Idaho 34Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
90.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 6 yds to the Idaho 44Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
90.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 11 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
90.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 21 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
89.8%
Matt Linehan sacked by Dezmin Reed for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
89.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the AppSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AppSt Taylor LambSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 28
OWN 15
+12
89.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 12 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+13
89.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 13 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Alfonso Onunwor at the Idaho 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7PUNT7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
APPDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 54 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
IDHODrive 9FG9 plays · 51 yds · 3:3012% → 16%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
87.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 10 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+18
87.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Denzal Brantley for 18 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
86.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 16 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FG10 plays · 68 yds · 4:0084% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 15 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
85.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 21 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+23
86.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 23 yds to the Idaho 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
84.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (Michael Rubino) to the Idaho 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12INT TD3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5015% → 8%
IDHODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
APPDrive 14FG6 plays · 45 yds · 2:2194% → 96%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
93.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 12 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
93.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 30 yds to the Idaho 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
93.7%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Aikeem Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 13Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
93.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Mock Adams for 6 yds to the Idaho 7 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 15FG7 plays · 58 yds · 2:255% → 9%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+51
94.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 39 yds to the APPALCHAN 25 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Alex Gray) to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-10
94.1%
Matt Linehan sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 10 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+13
94.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 13 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3593% → 95%
Q3 3:35
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-5
92.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (Taylor Lamb) to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+20
92.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 20 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil Capel, broken up by D.J. HamptonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
95.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Alfonso Onunwor at the Idaho 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 17INT3 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
APPDrive 18TD6 plays · 29 yds · 2:2496% → 99%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
96.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Zy Letman for 8 yds to the Idaho 21Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-3
96.0%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Aikeem Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 15Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+10
95.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to S. Meadors (Banks, Desmond), PENALTY IDAHO pass interference (Banks, Desmond) 10 yards to the IDAHO5, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19INT5 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
APPDrive 20FUMBLE3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
IDHODrive 21FG6 plays · 4 yds · 2:181% → 2%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
98.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 11 yds to the AppSt 8 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (4 Yards) to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
99.0%
Matt Linehan sacked by Eric Boggs for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3599% → 100%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
50
+22
98.6%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the APPALCHAN 43 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Idaho 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
98.7%
J.P. Caruso pass complete to Dante Jones for 8 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
J.P. Caruso pass complete to Dante Jones for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23TD18 plays · 87 yds · 4:100% → 1%
Q4 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
99.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 12 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor, broken up by Teh'Ron FullerSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 7 yds to the Idaho 42Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
99.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to David Ungerer for 5 yds to the Idaho 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+34
99.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 21 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, roughing passer (13 Yards) to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
99.8%
Matt Linehan sacked by Okon Godwin for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+3
99.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 3 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 15
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 9 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:02
Matt Linehan pass intercepted for a TD Clifton Duck return for 44 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+6.3
FG · Q3 3:43
Austin Rehkow 23 yd FG GOOD
-3.5
TD · Q4 11:09
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)
+3.5