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TROY

Troy 28 at South Alabama 21

USA
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2016 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:15 · Tevaris McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior−19.2Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:36: Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +5.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 80 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +6.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:37: Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 19 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +10.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:12: Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Johnson pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +33.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:20: Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +34.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:15TROY 4th & 2 at USA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:41USA 4th & 16 at TROY 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:05USA 4th & 2 at USA 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30USA 4th & 15 at USA 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:59TROY 4th & 3 at USA 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%−1.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:51USA 4th & 1 at USA 11, up 7
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:50TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:28USA 4th & 2 at USA 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36TROY 4th & 11 at USA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:30TROY 4th & 5 at USA 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:30USA 4th & 8 at TROY 36, up 8
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.5
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:45TROY 4th & 1 at USA 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−5.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−7.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:15TROY 4th & 12 at USA 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−12.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:28USA 4th & 15 at USA 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−4.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:42USA 4th & 11 at USA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−5.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:13USA 4th & 4 at USA 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−4.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:44USA 4th & 1 at USA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:44USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:37USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:12TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    43.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:20TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:1371% → 70%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
29.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 27 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
29.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 19 yds Deondre Douglas fumbled, forced by Devon Earl, recovered by SAlab Devon Earl , return for 28 yds to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:4230% → 31%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
29.8%
Davis, Dallas pass complete to Everett, Gerald for 12 yards to the TROY27, PENALTY SOUTHALA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TROY44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+43
29.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 43 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.5%
Xavier Johnson 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1570% → 67%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
30.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 26 yds to the SOUTHALA 44 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emanuel Thompson) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
30.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
31.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
31.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jabir Frye for 5 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
31.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
31.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 7 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
32.3%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-1
32.9%
Tevaris McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 4:2534% → 36%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
33.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 8 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
34.2%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
34.5%
Dallas Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
35.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+17
35.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 17 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
36.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-10
36.7%
Johnson, Xavier rush for 1 yard to the TROY32, PENALTY SOUTHALA holding (Esposito, Dominic) 10 yards to the TROY43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 16
OPP 43
-10
36.7%
Davis, Dallas pass incomplete to Williams, Tyrone, PENALTY SOUTHALA holding (Fisher, Noah) 10 yards to the SOUTHALA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 26
OWN 47
+10
36.7%
Dami Ayoola run for 10 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 16
OPP 43
0
36.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
36.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1163% → 62%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
37.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 10Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
37.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-5
37.8%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Antonio Garcia) to the Troy 5Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+10
38.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 3
OWN 15
-6
38.5%
Ryan Kay run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 9 Ryan Kay fumbled, recovered by Troy Ryan KaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3839% → 44%
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
39.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3657% → 56%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
42.9%
Jabir Frye run for 14 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
42.9%
Jabir Frye run for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
42.7%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 37 Jordan Chunn fumbled, recovered by Troy Steven RowzeeSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
43.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3745% → 47%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
45.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
45.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 9 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-5
46.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Andrew Zink) to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+4
46.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
47.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 74 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
40.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 80 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5541% → 41%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
41.1%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
41.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Junior GnonkondeSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-9
40.6%
Dallas Davis sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
40.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 49 yds for a 1ST down , Cedarius Rookard returns for no gain to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Devon Earl) to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2660% → 58%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
40.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
40.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
40.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+38
41.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, downed at the SAlab 3 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Taji Stewart) to the SAlab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0843% → 43%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
42.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Easton Marshall) to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+4
42.7%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
43.0%
Dallas Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+1
43.3%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 11Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
43.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Cedarius Rookard returns for no gain to the Troy 11 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5556% → 54%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
44.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
45.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
46.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0946% → 46%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
46.0%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
45.9%
Deonta Moore run for 6 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-1
46.5%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
46.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4352% → 56%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+37
47.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 37 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
45.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
44.1%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
44.3%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-5
45.0%
TROY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+5
46.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
45.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
47.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
43.6%
Ryan Kay 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5346% → 60%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.4%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
48.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+42
49.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 42 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
50.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (-15 Yards) to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 25
OPP 28
0
50.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+9
49.9%
Dallas Davis run for 9 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+19
60.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 19 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 1:3941% → 44%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
59.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
58.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
59.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
58.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 14 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
57.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+16
55.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 16 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
57.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 5 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
60.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
55.8%
Ryan Kay 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2061% → 65%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
61.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 21 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
64.2%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 7
50
+12
65.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 12 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
65.5%
Dallas Davis run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-2
66.3%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-1
65.8%
Dallas Davis sacked by Demetrius Cain for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
64.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20MISSED FG
19 plays · 66 yds · 8:0737% → 25%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
63.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+11
63.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 11 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
63.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 11 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
63.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
63.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 8 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
62.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
62.8%
Jabir Frye run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
50
+5
62.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
65.1%
Sidney Davis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
64.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
65.0%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
65.5%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
68.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
65.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 10 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
65.3%
Brandon Silvers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23 Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon SilversSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+1
68.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 1 yd to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 11
OPP 22
-1
71.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
75.5%
Ryan Kay 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3779% → 80%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
79.1%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+21
80.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
50
-5
82.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
81.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
81.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+5
81.5%
Davis, Dallas pass incomplete to Applewhite, Deshawn, PENALTY TROY offside 5 yards to the TROY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-9
82.4%
Dallas Davis sacked by Baron Poole for a loss of 9 yards to the SOUTHALA 45 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Stefin) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:28
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:0622% → 59%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 2 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
79.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Quinton Dent) to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
78.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
76.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-5
75.4%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Tevaris McCormick) to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+23
77.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 23 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+24
74.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 24 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
74.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Randy Allen) to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Johnson pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1954% → 51%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
54.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 9 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+6
56.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
55.3%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.4%
Tyreis Thomas run for 1 yd to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-2
56.5%
Dallas Davis sacked by Junior Gnonkonde for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
52.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FUMBLE
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4951% → 60%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
49.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
48.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 3 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
50.1%
Silvers, Brandon pass complete to Letton, Sam for 20 yards to the TROY31, PENALTY TROY holding off-setting, PENALTY SOUTHALA Personal Foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+9
50.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 9 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
47.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
46.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
50.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
46.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 15 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
40.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
40.1%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the SAlab 40 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Chason Milner, recovered by SAlab Randy AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2758% → 55%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
58.0%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
59.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 3 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
58.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Chris Lewis, broken up by Josh MarshallSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
55.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:4853% → 95%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sam LettonSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
47.5%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete to Thompson, Emanuel, PENALTY SOUTHALA holding (Reaves, Jeremy) 10 yards to the TROY30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
46.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 24 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
39.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+42
39.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 42 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:0612% → 9%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
12.3%
Dallas Davis sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
9.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+17
9.5%
Dallas Davis run for 17 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+10
8.0%
Dami Ayoola run for 10 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
9.8%
Dallas Davis sacked by Sam Lebbie and Demetrius Cain for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+38
8.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 38 yds Kevin Kutchera fumbled, forced by Blace Brown, recovered by Troy Kamryn MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:20
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
-34.9
TD · Q4 11:12
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Johnson pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion)
-33.6
TD · Q2 2:37
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 19 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com