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TXST

Texas State 34 at UL Monroe 40

ULM
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:38 · Dayton Balvanz punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Home team on offense+24.6Pregame prior+5.0Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:59: Will Collins pass complete to Kyle Nevels for 22 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT BLOCKED) — ULM win probability +6.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:46: Ben Luckett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:10: Will Collins pass intercepted for a TD Stan Kanu return for 53 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK) — TXST win probability +8.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:46: Duke Carter IV run for 9 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +10.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:22: Tyler Jones 16 Yd Run (Marcus Ripley Kick) — TXST win probability +19.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:33ULM 4th & 9 at TXST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:03TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:48ULM 4th & 5 at TXST 19, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:16ULM 4th & 4 at TXST 22, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 35, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:38ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 44, up 19
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at TXST 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−1.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:22TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 36, down 19
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:12ULM 4th & 7 at TXST 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:50TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:12ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:18ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:04TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−12.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−12.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:09TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:08ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:51TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:03ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:59ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:46ULM Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:10TXST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:46ULM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:22TXST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2766% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
66.4%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+26
66.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Alec Osborne for 26 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
66.4%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
66.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+4
66.4%
Garrett Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
66.4%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-4
66.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
66.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
66.4%
Craig Ford 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2434% → 35%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.4%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+39
66.4%
Tyler Jones run for 39 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
66.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Eric Luna for 13 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
66.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
64.7%
Stedman Mayberry run for 17 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
65.3%
Ben Luckett run for 11 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
65.4%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
65.4%
Ajalen Holley run for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
65.2%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
64.6%
Nikolas Daniels run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
64.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 25
+14
65.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 51 yds , Marcus Green returns for 14 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0965% → 67%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
64.5%
Garrett Smith run for 4 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+18
64.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 18 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
65.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
65.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+23
65.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 23 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
65.4%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
65.4%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.1%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1734% → 39%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
66.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
66.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
50
+16
65.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 16 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
65.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 7 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+10
65.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 10 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
65.0%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-8
65.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Teron Fitzgerald for 2 yds to the LaMon 12 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+19
65.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 19 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.6%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4864% → 67%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
63.7%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
63.9%
Garrett Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
63.7%
Ben Luckett run for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
64.2%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
64.2%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
63.5%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.2%
Duke Carter IV run for 6 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-2
64.2%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
67.1%
Will Collins pass complete to Rj Turner for 12 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.6%
Thurman Morbley run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
64.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
64.6%
Tyler Tutt run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
65.8%
Lumi Kaba punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:3666% → 74%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
65.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 22 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.8%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
66.4%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
67.1%
Will Collins pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 15 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.5%
Ben Luckett run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
67.8%
Duke Carter IV run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
67.8%
Will Collins run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
67.8%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
74.3%
Will Collins pass complete to Kyle Nevels for 22 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
73.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+18
73.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 18 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
72.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 7 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-8
72.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 37 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by LaMon Colton Moorehead , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1675% → 85%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.2%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
75.0%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+12
74.0%
Will Collins pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
75.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-3
75.0%
Will Collins sacked by Jordan Mittie and Teron Fitzgerald for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+9
73.6%
Will Collins pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 9 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+18
74.2%
Will Collins run for 18 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.9%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the TexSt 1 Ben Luckett fumbled, recovered by LaMon Ben LuckettSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
81.2%
Stedman Mayberry run for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
79.8%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Justin Backus return for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5787% → 91%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.0%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
86.9%
Will Collins pass complete to Rj Turner for 11 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.1%
Will Collins run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
86.7%
Duke Carter IV run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-3
85.6%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 22 Duke Carter IV fumbled, recovered by LaMon Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
91.1%
Craig Ford 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14Uncategorized
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
85.0%
Tutt, Tyler rush for 13 yards to the ULM49 (Backus, Justin), PENALTY TXST holding (54) 10 yards to the TXST28, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Tyler Watts run for no gain to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
87.3%
Stedman Mayberry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
86.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
87.4%
Lumi Kaba punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16INT TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2292% → 84%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
91.5%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+23
91.7%
Will Collins pass complete to Alec Osborne for 23 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.0%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
92.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 5
50
+6
91.7%
Will Collins run for 6 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.1%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
92.0%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+53
84.0%
Will Collins pass intercepted for a TD Stan Kanu return for 53 yds for a TD, (Marcus Ripley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 5:2484% → 95%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
83.7%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+8
83.6%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
83.7%
Will Collins run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
83.7%
Will Collins run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
83.7%
Will Collins run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.6%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
84.2%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+15
83.5%
Collins, Will pass incomplete to Green, Marcus, PENALTY TXST pass interference (McDowell, B.) 15 yards to the TXST45, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
84.8%
Will Collins run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+18
84.7%
Will Collins pass complete to Brian Williams for 18 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
84.8%
Carter, Duke rush for no gain to the TXST25 (Davis, Ishmael), PENALTY TXST face mask (Davis, Ishmael) 13 yards to the TXST12, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
84.8%
Will Collins run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
95.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 9 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
92.5%
Jones, Tyler pass incomplete to King, Elijah (Offray, Juwan), QB hurry by Tucker, Caleb, PENALTY TXST holding (Melton, Ryan) 10 yards to the TXST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+6
92.9%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
92.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Eric Luna, broken up by Roland JenkinsSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-19
93.0%
Tyler Jones sacked by David Griffith and Jarred Dunn for a loss of 19 yards to the TexSt 20 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Tyler Jones) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 33
OWN 20
+8
93.1%
Lumi Kaba punt for 53 yds , Marcus Green returns for 8 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
95.6%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
95.6%
Will Collins pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
95.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
93.9%
Tyler Jones run for 16 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
93.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 6 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
93.5%
Tyler Jones pass intercepted Terry Ausborne Jr. return for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:3197% → 97%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
96.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 15 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
97.0%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+6
97.0%
Will Collins run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
96.9%
Will Collins run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
96.6%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
95.6%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+7
95.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
95.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by David GriffithSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
95.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 42 yds , Marcus Green returns for no gain to the LaMon 24 Marcus Green fumbled, recovered by LaMon Marcus GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:0198% → 95%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
97.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
97.7%
Markis McCray run for 13 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+50
94.9%
Ben Luckett run for no gain Ben Luckett fumbled, forced by Ishmael Davis, recovered by TexSt Damani Alexcee , return for 50 yds, (Marcus Ripley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
94.9%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+5
94.8%
Duke Carter IV run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
94.7%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
94.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
94.6%
Stedman Mayberry run for 11 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Terry Ausborne Jr.Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
94.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
94.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to PJ AndersonSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
94.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:2295% → 97%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
95.4%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
95.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
95.4%
Will Collins run for 9 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.5%
Duke Carter IV run for 8 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-3
95.8%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 37 Duke Carter IV fumbled, forced by Stan Kanu, recovered by LaMon Will CollinsSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Will Collins pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:384% → 24%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
96.1%
Stedman Mayberry run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+15
95.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Watts for 15 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
95.6%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Stephen AmoakoSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
95.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 13 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+53
95.1%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the LaMon 16 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler Jones for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Nick Ingram) to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
75.9%
Tyler Jones 16 Yd Run (Marcus Ripley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:0490% → 94%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.7%
Duke Carter IV run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
89.8%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
90.7%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
94.7%
Will Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-1
94.3%
Will Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 12
OWN 37
+4
94.3%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 41 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 1:039% → 13%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
90.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to PJ Anderson for 9 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to PJ Anderson, broken up by Colton MooreheadSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 6 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Gabe SchradeSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
91.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 11 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
89.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 17 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
88.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Thurman MorbleySimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
89.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Elijah King for 9 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
87.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Teron Fitzgerald, broken up by Nick IngramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:22
Tyler Jones 16 Yd Run (Marcus Ripley Kick)
-19.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+12.9
TD · Q3 4:46
Duke Carter IV run for 9 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com