Try the model
IDHO

Idaho 34 at UL Monroe 31

ULM
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreIDHO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-6.3ULM 48.8%Kendrick Trotter 19 Yd Return ofBlocked Punt (Austin Rehkow Kick)AWAY 16 - HOME 0 · Q1 1:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:18 · Kendrick Trotter 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Austin Rehkow Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−5.6Pregame prior+9.1Score differential−3.2Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:59: Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Linehan pass to David Ungerer for Two-Point Conversion) — IDHO win probability +14.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 44 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +11.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: One-score game).
  3. TD · Q3 5:46: Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK) — IDHO win probability +18.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:28: Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +38.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Austin Rehkow 27 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +32.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:01IDHO 4th & 11 at ULM 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56IDHO 4th & 9 at ULM 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36IDHO 4th & 12 at ULM 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 30, down 9
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:42IDHO 4th & 10 at IDHO 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26IDHO 4th & 10 at ULM 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.3%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:43IDHO 4th & 9 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:40ULM 4th & 8 at IDHO 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−11.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:46ULM 4th & 8 at IDHO 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:29IDHO 4th & 11 at IDHO 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:54IDHO 4th & 2 at IDHO 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:28ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:10IDHO 4th & 9 at ULM 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IDHO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:18IDHO Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:31ULM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:59IDHO Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:42ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:25ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:46IDHO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:28ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IDHODrive 1FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 5:5938% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 6 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
61.9%
Matt Linehan run for no gain to the Idaho 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 5 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
61.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 7 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
61.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
61.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the Idaho 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 5 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
61.9%
Denzal Brantley run for 15 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Kevin SheltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
61.9%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+32
61.9%
Denzal Brantley run for 32 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Calvary Pugh, broken up by Caleb TuckerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
61.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Idaho Matt LinehanSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
61.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
61.2%
Austin Rehkow 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
60.9%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
60.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 1 yd to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+2
60.6%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Kaden Elliss return for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 3FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0340% → 40%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
60.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
60.1%
Matt Linehan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
60.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Nick IngramSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
59.6%
Austin Rehkow 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
60.1%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+19
60.0%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Jayshawn Jordan return for 19 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 5FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:3341% → 44%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
58.9%
Denzal Brantley run for 8 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-3
58.8%
Denzal Brantley run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
59.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 6 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
58.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 11 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
58.8%
Matt Linehan run for 9 yds to the LaMon 4 IDAHO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 14Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 11
OPP 14
-5
57.0%
Linehan, Matt pass complete to Watson, Deon for 14 yards to the ULM0, clock 03:58, PENALTY IDAHO illegal motion (Brantley, D) 5 yards to the ULM19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 16
OPP 19
+6
57.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 6 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-2
57.0%
Isaiah Saunders run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
57.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Alfonso Onunwor, broken up by Aaron TownsendSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
55.8%
Austin Rehkow 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1855% → 49%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
55.3%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
55.7%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
55.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ben Luckett, broken up by Kendrick TrotterSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+19
48.8%
Kendrick Trotter 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Austin Rehkow Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4749% → 54%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
48.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 6 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
49.4%
Duke Carter IV run for 6 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
49.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 21 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
50.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the Idaho 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
49.1%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the Idaho 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
49.4%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
54.2%
Ben Luckett run for 31 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 8TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:3247% → 63%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
53.5%
Matt Linehan run for 3 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+63
53.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 55 yds to the ULMONROE 15 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Chase Day) to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
52.2%
Denzal Brantley run for 1 yd to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
52.2%
Denzal Brantley run for 4 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.5%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Linehan pass to David Ungerer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1742% → 50%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
41.5%
Markis McCray run for 21 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
42.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Jayshawn JordanSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+20
41.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 20 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
43.2%
Ben Luckett run for 12 yds to the Idaho 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
43.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+19
43.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 19 yds to the Idaho 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.8%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
47.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
47.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 6 yds to the Idaho 33Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
46.9%
Aaron Duckworth run for 2 yds to the Idaho 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.6%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob SannonSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
47.0%
Aaron Duckworth run for 1 yd to the Idaho 36Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
47.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 9 yds to the Idaho 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.8%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
46.0%
Isaiah Saunders run for no gain to the Idaho 45Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
46.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Alfonso OnunworSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
47.9%
Austin Rehkow punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 2:4544% → 56%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-6
44.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 16
OWN 4
0
43.9%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 4Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+24
42.9%
Garrett Smith run for 24 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Lloyd HightowerSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
44.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Tre' Perrier, broken up by Aikeem ColemanSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
43.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 15 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 3
50
+6
46.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the Idaho 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
43.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+44
55.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 44 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:5947% → 47%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
52.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 1 yd to the Idaho 27Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+13
52.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 13 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
50.7%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 6 yds to the Idaho 46Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
50.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 8 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob SannonSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
50.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
51.2%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Reuben MwehlaSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
53.4%
Austin Rehkow punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0054% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
54.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 13 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.5%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
56.5%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
56.3%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
55.4%
TEAM run for 2 yds to the Idaho 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Idaho Jayshawn JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
49.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 6 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-5
48.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 9
50
0
50.1%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 9
50
0
52.3%
Austin Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:3451% → 61%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
51.3%
Duke Carter IV run for 7 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+4
51.7%
Duke Carter IV run for 4 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
51.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+12
51.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
52.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 39 yds to the Idaho 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
55.7%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 31Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+16
55.2%
Smith, Garrett pass intercepted by Hall, Ed at the IDAHO21, Hall, Ed return to the IDAHO28 (Savage, Jeff), PENALTY IDAHO personal foul (Lashley, Tony) 16 yards to the IDAHO15, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
55.7%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the Idaho 14Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
55.7%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the Idaho 13Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
53.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by D.J. HamptonSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
60.6%
Craig Ford 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:5446% → 64%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
54.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 29Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+71
36.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
38.0%
Duke Carter IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
37.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared Mapps, broken up by Jayshawn JordanSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+14
36.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 14 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
39.4%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kevin Shelton) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
50
0
42.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
50
+2
41.7%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the Idaho 48Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
40.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj TurnerSimilar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
38.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
33.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 5 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
31.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 8 yds to the Idaho 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
31.4%
Aaron Duckworth run for no gain to the Idaho 34Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
32.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 4 yds to the Idaho 38Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
30.7%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Jacob Sannon) to the Idaho 33Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jordan FrysingerSimilar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
35.1%
Austin Rehkow punt for 45 yds , Marcus Green returns for no gain to the LaMon 12 Marcus Green fumbled, recovered by LaMon Xavier BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT
8 plays · 73 yds · 0:4234% → 39%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
34.1%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+13
31.2%
Garrett Smith run for 13 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
32.3%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
32.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Duke Carter IV for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+37
31.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 37 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
39.0%
Garrett Smith run for 12 yds to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
39.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the Idaho 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
39.0%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Russell Siavii return for no gain to the Idaho 15 UL MONROE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
27.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 15 yds to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
26.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jordan FrysingerSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
26.8%
Denzal Brantley run for 4 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-5
27.5%
IDAHO Penalty, false start (Jacob Sannon) to the Idaho 17Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+9
27.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 9 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
27.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Nick Ingram at the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Russell SiaviiSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
26.1%
Garrett Smith run for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
27.6%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
27.2%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
29.8%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
29.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ben LuckettSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
27.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0384% → 85%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.4%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob SannonSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
16.6%
Aaron Duckworth run for 6 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
16.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 6 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
15.7%
Matt Linehan run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
15.9%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon WatsonSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-1
13.1%
Matt Linehan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
15.2%
Austin Rehkow punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5221% → 65%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
20.8%
Marcus Green run for 28 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
24.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
26.9%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the Idaho 37Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+7
27.1%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the Idaho 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
65.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 24FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2850% → 96%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
49.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 8 yds to the Idaho 31Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+40
46.1%
Aaron Duckworth run for 40 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
40.3%
Aaron Duckworth run for 3 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+11
40.3%
Matt Linehan run for 11 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
40.3%
Denzal Brantley run for 5 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+27
4.5%
Austin Rehkow 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:28
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+38.1
FG · Q4 0:00
Austin Rehkow 27 yd FG GOOD
-32.8
TD · Q3 5:46
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jordan Frysinger for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com