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UL

Louisiana 31 at New Mexico State 37

NMSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:58 · Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds , Jordan Wright returns for no gain to the LaLaf 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 49Pregame prior−18.1Home team on offense+0.3Time remaining+0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:23: Jaden Wright 45 Yd Interception Return (Parker Davidson Kick) — NMSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:19: Jordan Wright 7 Yd Run (Jalen Nixon Pass to Jared Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — UL win probability +20.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Gregory Hogan 23 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Parker Davidson Kick) — NMSU win probability +23.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Darius Hoggins 0 Yd Fumble Return (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +25.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Timeout UL LAFAYETTE, clock 00:00 — NMSU win probability +21.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 7:15NMSU 4th & 7 at UL 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27UL 4th & 4 at UL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:58NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UL 4th & 5 at UL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:29NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55UL 4th & 5 at NMSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:41UL 4th & 8 at NMSU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 4 at NMSU 24, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−6.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56UL 4th & 14 at UL 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:28UL 4th & 13 at UL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−3.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:11NMSU 4th & 19 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−3.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UL 4th & 6 at UL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:31NMSU 4th & 4 at UL 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−20.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:28UL 4th & 11 at UL 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:02NMSU 4th & 3 at UL 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%−2.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−7.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:58UL 4th & 7 at NMSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−5.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−12.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00NMSU 4th & 1 at UL 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−9.4
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−34.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:25NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:15UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:19NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23NMSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:19UL Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3528% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
28.2%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+9
28.2%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
28.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+6
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+17
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 17 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
28.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
31.4%
Clayton Granch 19 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Parker Davidson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1069% → 69%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
30.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
30.8%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+15
30.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 15 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
30.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
30.6%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
30.6%
Darius Hoggins run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
30.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 13 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
30.5%
Darius Hoggins run for no gain to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
30.5%
Jordan Wright run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.9%
Keenan Barnes 5 Yd pass from Anthony Jennings (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
32.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
31.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Trev Miller for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+33
31.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 33 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
32.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
32.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for no gain to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
32.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IiiSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
31.9%
Tyler Rogers punt for 21 yds, downed at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
32.8%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 12 Anthony Jennings fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Anthony JenningsSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+12
33.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
33.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
33.5%
Steven Coutts punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Clayton GranchSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
33.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+5
32.9%
Theisler,Peyton punt 42 yards to the UL33, Wright, Jordan return to the UL44 (Butler,Rodney;Hanks,Terrill), PENALTY UL roughing the kicker 5 yards to the NMSU30, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
33.9%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
34.8%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-3
34.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Karmichael Dunbar and Tre'maine Lightfoot for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 43 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+4
33.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
33.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds , Jordan Wright returns for no gain to the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5766% → 65%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
34.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
33.7%
Anthony Jennings run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
33.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-4
33.4%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Jacob Nwangwa for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
34.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMxSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
35.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by Mario OsborneSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
35.6%
Larry Rose Iii run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
35.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
34.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Wright at the LaLaf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
33.9%
Darius Hoggins run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+3
34.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 3 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
35.1%
Anthony Jennings pass intercepted Rodney Butler return for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
38.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Otha Peters for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 23
OWN 30
0
36.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 23
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier Hall, broken up by LaDarrius KiddSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 23
OWN 30
0
35.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds, downed at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FG
8 plays · 76 yds · 2:3864% → 66%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
36.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 5
OWN 23
0
35.6%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Drew JamesSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
35.8%
Jordan Wright run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+63
36.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 63 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
33.6%
Darius Hoggins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
33.6%
Jordan Wright run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
34.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
34.0%
Stevie Artigue 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.2%
Larry Rose Iii run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-6
34.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Karmichael Dunbar and T.J. Posey for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+19
34.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a 1ST down Trey Granier return for 9 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 66%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
32.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-2
31.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Michael Jacquet for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
32.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 7:41
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
33.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 4:1334% → 50%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
34.4%
Larry Rose Iii run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
34.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
35.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
34.2%
Rogers,Tyler rush for 17 yards to the NMSU41, out-of-bounds (Crawford, T.), PENALTY NMSU holding (Lottie,Izaiah) 1 yards to the NMSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+7
34.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
34.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+17
35.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 17 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
37.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 13 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
38.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Gregory Hogan) to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+33
36.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 33 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.9%
Larry Rose 6 Yd Run (Parker Davidson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14INT TD
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5654% → 40%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
45.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
46.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 8 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+45
60.0%
Jaden Wright 45 Yd Interception Return (Parker Davidson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 1:2340% → 42%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.5%
Jordan Wright run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
59.4%
Jordan Wright run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.8%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
62.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
62.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
63.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 22 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
60.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
60.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
62.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
58.0%
Stevie Artigue 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
58.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
57.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+5
58.0%
Jordan Wright run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.3%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the LaLaf 28 Jordan Wright fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Jordan WrightSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
58.5%
Jalen Nixon run for no gain to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+2
59.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
60.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 64 yds, downed at the NMxSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
62.1%
Rose III, Larry rush for 20 yards to the NMSU26 (Peters, Otha), PENALTY NMSU holding (Holland,Abram) 2 yards to the NMSU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 12
OWN 4
0
62.1%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 12
OWN 4
0
61.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Simeon Thomas return for no gain to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3942% → 63%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
58.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
58.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+9
58.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 9 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
56.2%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
56.2%
Simeon Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+13
58.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
37.4%
Jordan Wright 7 Yd Run (Jalen Nixon Pass to Jared Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0047% → 49%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
47.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 16 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
49.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Sage Doxtater) to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
47.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IiiSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+12
47.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 12 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
49.8%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
48.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
44.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.8%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+17
44.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
40.6%
Jalen Nixon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 7
50
-9
40.2%
Nixon, Jalen pass complete to Riles, Al for 20 yards to the NMSU30 (Nwangwa,Jacob;Phipps,Jared), PENALTY UL holding (Byrne, Nick) 9 yards to the UL41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 16
OWN 41
-5
43.2%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Eddie Gordon) to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+8
44.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Nick ByrneSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
45.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyrian Taylor at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
49.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
50.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 11 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
53.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
54.5%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
53.5%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
54.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 20
OWN 49
-5
51.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive offside (Jaleel Scott) to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 25
OWN 44
+6
50.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 19
50
0
50.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 19
50
0
48.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1153% → 50%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
46.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 7 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
45.1%
Jalen Nixon run for no gain to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-3
46.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
49.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tyrian Taylor at the NMxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:5853% → 70%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
53.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 14 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
55.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+29
57.3%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 12 yards to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST down UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, personal foul (41 Yards) to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
59.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+4
57.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 4 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+6
57.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 6 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+33
70.3%
Parker Davidson 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5936% → 33%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
63.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 27 Darius Hoggins fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Darius Hoggins for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
63.3%
Jalen Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
63.9%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
65.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jared JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
67.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, downed at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0869% → 74%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.4%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+28
68.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 28 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
73.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
74.2%
Larry Rose Iii run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
74.2%
Larry Rose Iii run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
75.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
73.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
73.8%
Parker Davidson 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0434% → 52%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+37
66.0%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Nick Byrne for 37 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
58.3%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Eddie Gordon) to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+13
62.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
57.8%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
60.0%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-5
62.5%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, illegal participation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
47.9%
Stevie Artigue 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27MISSED FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 2:5857% → 63%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
59.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
61.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
61.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Sage Doxtater) to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+15
57.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
64.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
67.2%
Larry Rose Iii run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
67.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+5
67.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
64.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+20
62.5%
Parker Davidson 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28END OF HALF
14 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 3
OPP 25
+6
64.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
64.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Sage Doxtater) to the LaLaf 29Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+6
61.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 6 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
85.1%
Gregory Hogan 23 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Parker Davidson Kick)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+11
82.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
80.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
55.2%
Darius Hoggins 0 Yd Fumble Return (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
40.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Jared PhippsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
43.0%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 9 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.5%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the NMxSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
40.5%
Darius Hoggins run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
43.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Otha Peters, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+22
49.6%
Stevie Artigue 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29TD
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
64.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
64.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
64.7%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 14 Tyler Rogers fumbled, forced by Tre'maine Lightfoot, recovered by NMxSt Tyler RogersSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+11
64.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
62.3%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Darius Hoggins 0 Yd Fumble Return (Stevie Artigue Kick)
-25.2
TD · OT 0:00
Gregory Hogan 23 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Parker Davidson Kick)
+23.2
TD · OT 0:00
Timeout UL LAFAYETTE, clock 00:00
+21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com