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NICH

Nicholls 40 at South Alabama 41

USA
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.1USA 71.6%David McKey 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 14 · Q2 8:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:06 · David McKey 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 64Pregame prior+27.0Home team on offense−6.8Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score differential−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 12:17: David McKey 21 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +7.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:45: Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 16 yds for a TD, (Josh Singleton pass to C.J. Bates for Two-Point Conversion) — NICH win probability +38.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:16: Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +51.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +22.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Dontrell Taylor 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NICH win probability +13.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10NICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 14:48NICH 4th & 5 at USA 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:13USA 4th & 7 at NICH 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03USA 4th & 5 at USA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:57NICH 4th & 26 at NICH 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:09USA 4th & 7 at NICH 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:06NICH 4th & 4 at USA 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02USA 4th & 5 at NICH 5, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:02NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 47, down 1
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:57USA 4th & 7 at NICH 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:17NICH 4th & 3 at USA 3, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:42USA 4th & 5 at NICH 9, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−12.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:42NICH 4th & 17 at NICH 18, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:55USA 4th & 20 at USA 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−4.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:56NICH 4th & 6 at NICH 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 13 at USA 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−4.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:33NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−3.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:45USA 4th & 10 at NICH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:58NICH 4th & 4 at USA 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.9
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−2.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:47USA 4th & 6 at USA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:48USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:09USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:37NICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:33NICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:43USA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:45NICH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:16USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NICHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
88.6%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 5 yds to the NicSt 38Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
88.6%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 10 yds to the NicSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
88.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for no gain to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 14:48
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
88.6%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
88.2%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+9
88.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for 9 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
88.2%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
88.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 17 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
88.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 16 yds to the NicSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
88.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
88.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 45Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
88.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q1 12:13
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
88.2%
Brandon McKee punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
87.9%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the NicSt 15Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
87.9%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 15 yds to the NicSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
87.8%
Chase Fourcade run for 7 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
87.7%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Stefano Guarisco for 2 yds to the NicSt 39Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
87.7%
C.J. Okpalobi run for no gain to the NicSt 39Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dami Ayoola at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
87.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
87.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
87.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
87.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
87.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 32Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-6
87.4%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, delay of game (Chase Fourcade) to the NicSt 26Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 18
OWN 26
-8
87.5%
Chase Fourcade sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the NicSt 18Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 26
OWN 18
0
87.6%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 53 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:1187% → 90%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+9
87.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 9 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
87.4%
Deonta Moore run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
87.4%
Deonta Moore run for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+15
87.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 15 yds to the NicSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
87.6%
Deonta Moore run for 7 yds to the NicSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
87.2%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the NicSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
87.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 26 yds to the NicSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.0%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
87.9%
Chase Fourcade sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 30 Chase Fourcade fumbled, recovered by SAlab Kalen Jackson , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
86.3%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted for a TD Chris Major return for 33 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
-5
82.5%
McKey, David kickoff 50 yards to the USA30, Ayoola, Dami return to the USA40 (Major, Chris), PENALTY NICH offside (Trahan, Ceasar) 5 yards to the NICH15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11MISSED FG TD
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2884% → 82%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
84.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+7
84.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 7 yds to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
84.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
84.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 0
0
82.7%
Davis, Dallas pass complete to Kutchera, Kevin for 13 yards to the NICH19, PENALTY USA illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY NICH roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
84.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+51
82.4%
Christian Boutte 51 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (David McKey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
82.2%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
82.2%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Ahmani Martin return for no gain to the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 13TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:5021% → 27%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
79.3%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 1 yd to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+24
79.4%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 24 yds to the SAlab 1 C.J. Okpalobi fumbled, forced by Kalen Jackson, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.4%
Mason Boudreaux run for 1 yd for a TD, (David McKey PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2727% → 28%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
73.4%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
73.4%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
73.7%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
71.6%
David McKey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2373% → 81%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
72.6%
Deonta Moore run for 39 yds to the NicSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
74.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the NicSt 16Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
80.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
77.1%
C.J. Okpalobi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 15Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+4
77.3%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 4 yds to the NicSt 23 C.J. Okpalobi fumbled, forced by Randy Allen, recovered by SAlab Darrell SongySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4480% → 82%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
80.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 17 yds to the NicSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
80.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the NicSt 3Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
80.4%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 5Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Evan VeronSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
81.5%
Gavin Patterson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
80.3%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Josh Singleton for 7 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
79.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 9 yds to the NicSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
79.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the NicSt 45Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
78.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the NicSt 47Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Josh SingletonSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
80.0%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 51 yds, downed at the SAlab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:1280% → 79%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
80.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+4
79.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+41
79.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 41 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
82.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
81.8%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the NicSt 49Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
80.9%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
79.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds, downed at the NicSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
79.0%
Dontrell Taylor run for 3 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 21FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:4325% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
75.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 12 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
75.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
75.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
76.2%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Josh Singleton for 5 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.3%
Josh Singleton run for no gain to the SAlab 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.2%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Stephen LeBouefSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
68.7%
David McKey 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:3572% → 77%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+12
72.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
74.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 20 yds to the NicSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
75.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 5 yds to the NicSt 27Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
75.5%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the NicSt 27Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-9
74.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Quinton Lane for 6 yds to the NicSt 21 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Gerald Everett) to the NicSt 36Similar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
74.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
74.5%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+20
74.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 20 yds to the NicSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
75.5%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the NicSt 11Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
75.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NicSt 9Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
74.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
76.8%
Gavin Patterson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
Kyran Irvin run for 1 yd to the NicSt 26Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.9%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
75.9%
Dontrell Taylor run for 7 yds to the NicSt 33Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-15
75.7%
St. Germain, Ty punt 52 yards to the USA15, downed, PENALTY NICH face mask (Green, Tyler) 15 yards to the NICH18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+14
77.3%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 43 yds , Dami Ayoola returns for 14 yds to the NicSt 32 NICHOLLS ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0078% → 73%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
77.8%
Davis, Dallas pass complete to Johnson, Xavier for 11 yards to the NICH31 (Andry, Marcel), PENALTY USA holding (Everett, Gerald) 10 yards to the USA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
75.8%
Dallas Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 48 Dallas Davis fumbled, forced by B.T. Sanders, recovered by SAlabSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
75.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Dami AyoolaSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 20
OWN 48
0
74.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
73.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
73.4%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the NicSt 18Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-2
73.4%
Chase Fourcade run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 16Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+10
74.9%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 10 yds to the NicSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
73.1%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 4 yds to the NicSt 30Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
72.5%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. OkpalobiSimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Damion JeanpiereSimilar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
75.4%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2373% → 70%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
72.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
73.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+16
71.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 16 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
75.1%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
72.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
71.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Jeff HallSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
70.0%
Brandon McKee punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.2%
Dontrell Taylor run for 3 yds to the NicSt 23Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
70.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Josh Singleton, broken up by Nigel LawrenceSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-1
71.6%
Chase Fourcade run for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 22Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
73.4%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 56 yds, downed at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28INT
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
70.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 28 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Curtis Williams) to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 18
OWN 14
0
70.1%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted B.T. Sanders return for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 29TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3338% → 78%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
62.5%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
62.1%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 4 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+10
64.0%
Dontrell Taylor run for 10 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
62.1%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
22.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 16 yds for a TD, (Josh Singleton pass to C.J. Bates for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 30INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
34.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
33.3%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+13
32.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 13 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
36.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
38.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 9 yds to the NicSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
39.4%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the NicSt 43Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
38.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
37.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
34.0%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Corey Abraham return for no gain to the NicSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 31PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4280% → 88%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
19.6%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the NicSt 35Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+11
19.6%
Dontrell Taylor run for 11 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
17.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 15 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
16.9%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
12.6%
Dontrell Taylor run for 7 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
12.2%
Dontrell Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
11.7%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 16 yds, downed at the SAlab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 32TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 2:3121% → 66%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
20.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
20.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for no gain to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+4
19.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Deonta Moore for 4 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+33
18.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 33 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
25.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+13
23.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jordan McCray for 13 yds to the NicSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Jeff HallSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
28.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jordan McCray for 12 yds to the NicSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
29.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
29.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for 6 yds to the NicSt 15Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+6
14.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 6 yds to the NicSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
66.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
46.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 34TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
64.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 10 yds to the NicSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
64.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the NicSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
64.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the NicSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
62.3%
Dami Ayoola run for no gain to the NicSt 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
59.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the NicSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 35TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 34%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
80.4%
Dontrell Taylor run for 17 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.8%
Dontrell Taylor 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
65.9%
Fourcade, Chase pass attempt failed (intercepted), PENALTY USA offside defense (Jackson, Kalen) 1 yards to the USA2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 9 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+51.3
TD · Q4 8:45
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 16 yds for a TD, (Josh Singleton pass to C.J. Bates for Two-Point Conversion)
-38.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com