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NMSU

New Mexico State 6 at Troy 52

TROY
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+38.1Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:05: Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +0.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:27: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:24: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:45: Parker Davidson kickoff for 65 yds , Jabir Frye return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:21: Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at TROY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:01NMSU 4th & 1 at TROY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:05TROY 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:21TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:23NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:43TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:55TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:17NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:39NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:39NMSU 4th & 28 at NMSU 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:06NMSU 4th & 7 at TROY 18, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:06TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 29, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:50TROY 4th & 7 at NMSU 45, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:33NMSU 4th & 10 at TROY 13, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 41, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:40NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 25, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:05TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:27TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:24TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:45TROY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:21TROY Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:33NMSU Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:11TROY Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 44 yds · 2:5912% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
88.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
88.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
88.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
88.1%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian Taylor, broken up by Cedarius RookardSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+13
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 13 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
88.1%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
88.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
87.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-1
87.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2687% → 87%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
87.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 11 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
87.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
87.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+33
87.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 33 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
87.3%
Brandon Silvers run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
87.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
87.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 1:5813% → 13%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
87.3%
Larry Rose Iii run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
87.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
87.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+23
87.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 23 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
86.9%
Jason Huntley run for 1 yd to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-1
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+11
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jalen Rountree return for 11 yds to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
87.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+7
87.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Dominic Walker for 7 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
87.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
87.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete TROY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
86.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete TROY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
86.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
86.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Trevon Sanders and Blace Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+6
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 6 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
86.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+33
86.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 33 yds to the TROY 36 TROY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.0%
Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
87.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
86.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 6 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
86.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1314% → 14%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
86.3%
Larry Rose Iii run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+26
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 26 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.9%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
85.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
86.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
86.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
86.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 15 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
86.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
86.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
86.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, downed at the NMxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
85.7%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+6
85.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 6 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+1
86.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 1 yd to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+5
86.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 5 yds to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1486% → 90%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
86.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 22 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
86.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+17
86.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
86.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
86.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
86.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4811% → 6%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
89.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
94.1%
Peyton Theisler punt blocked by Jabir Frye blocked by Jabir Frye Demetrius Cain return for 15 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
94.0%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+54
94.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 54 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian Taylor, broken up by Kamryn MeltonSimilar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
93.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 15
OPP 41
-13
94.0%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Jamal Stadom and Sam Lebbie for a loss of 13 yards to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 28
OWN 46
0
94.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:0196% → 98%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
95.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+19
95.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 19 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
95.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+12
95.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 12 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
95.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+6
95.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.9%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
95.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
98.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14INT
14 plays · 64 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
98.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Rashad Dillard and Baron Poole for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+4
98.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+16
99.0%
Rogers,Tyler deep pass incomplete to Hogan,Gregory (Brown, Blace), PENALTY TROY roughing passer 16 yards to the NMSU40, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 13 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 22 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
98.6%
Larry Rose Iii run for 9 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+6
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+54
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Blace Brown return for 54 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
98.9%
Ryan Kay 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:391% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
99.1%
Gamar Girdy run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+37
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Clayton Granch for 37 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 26 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (-5 Yards) to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+13
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 13 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Clayton Granch, broken up by Jalen RountreeSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
98.8%
Parker Davidson 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 9 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
99.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.3%
Xavier Hall run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
99.3%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+22
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Justin Lucas return for 22 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 18 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
99.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
99.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Justin Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
99.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
99.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 14 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.7%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+39
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 39 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Melvin TyusSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
99.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 7 yds to the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.7%
Jabir Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+18
99.7%
Josh Anderson run for 18 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
99.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jabir Frye for 10 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 2 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Josh Anderson run for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+1
99.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tyrian Taylor at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.8%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+10
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 10 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+49
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 49 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 8 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
99.7%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 5 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
99.7%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 13 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Jabir Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Justin Wyatt for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 7 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 40 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 27
-2
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+19
99.9%
Sidney Davis run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Sidney Davis run for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+28
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 28 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 15 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Blace Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28END OF GAME
14 plays · 79 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 6 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 10 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-3
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 12 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Tevaris McCormick run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+19
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 19 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Jabir Frye run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:27
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 2:24
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q1 9:05
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com