Try the model
ULM

UL Monroe 21 at Georgia Southern 23

GASO
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:23 · Matt Flynn punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+38.1Home team on offense−3.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:39: Garrett Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +2.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:07: Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:32: Younghoe Koo 43 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +3.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:51: Wesley Fields run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +8.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:12: Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +17.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:18GASO 4th & 19 at GASO 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:50ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:23GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 8 at GASO 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:23GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:25ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:58GASO 4th & 5 at ULM 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:21GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:47ULM 4th & 8 at GASO 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:22ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:32GASO 4th & 7 at ULM 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:32ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:50ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:52GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−6.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:16ULM 4th & 14 at GASO 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−21.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−28.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:16ULM 4th & 14 at GASO 43, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−6.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    28% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−9.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:26ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:07GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:51GASO Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:12ULM Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
96.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 18 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.0%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
96.0%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
50
-2
96.0%
Garrett Smith sacked by William Bussey Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds , Montay Crockett returns for no gain to the GeoSo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
95.6%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 13
-1
95.6%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 8 Favian Upshaw fumbled, forced by David Griffith, recovered by GeoSo Matt BreidaSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+2
95.6%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+14
95.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 49 , Marcus Green returns for 14 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
95.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 8 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+11
95.1%
Ben Luckett run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
94.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 32 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
94.7%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
94.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
94.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 16
OWN 0
0
94.7%
Wesley Fields rush for 7 yards to the GS41 (Hunter, Tre';Day, Chase), PENALTY GS illegal block off-setting, PENALTY ULM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
94.7%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+2
94.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 14
OWN 36
-5
94.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 19
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Matt Flynn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
93.4%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-3
93.4%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ben LuckettSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Favian Upshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
92.9%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
92.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-5
92.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (Matt Flynn) to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Matt Flynn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:038% → 11%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+65
92.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 65 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.8%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.5%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:2490% → 91%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
90.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+22
90.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for 22 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
90.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
90.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 7 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
90.5%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
90.5%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
89.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 8 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
89.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
91.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0710% → 10%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
90.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 16 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
89.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 1 yd to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
90.0%
Ajalen Holley run for 7 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
89.9%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.8%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.8%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
89.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Christian MatthewSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
90.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 41 yds, downed at the GeoSo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
88.9%
Matt Breida run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
88.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-2
88.9%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+13
88.6%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 13 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
89.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
89.1%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Favian Upshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Matt Flynn punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
86.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 7 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
86.0%
Duke Carter IV run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
86.0%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
86.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Montay Crockett at the GeoSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:4485% → 86%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
84.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
85.0%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
84.9%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+14
84.5%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 29 yds to the GASOUTHERN 49 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (BJ Johnson III) to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
85.3%
Wesley Fields run for 20 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.3%
Favian Upshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
86.2%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
85.5%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 11
OPP 45
+15
85.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Justin Backus) to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
86.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
86.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.9%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
86.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
86.3%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to L.A. RamsbySimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
85.8%
Younghoe Koo 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.5%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
84.4%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Ukeme Eligwe return for no gain to the GeoSo 27 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (Monquavion Brinson) to the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
85.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete, broken up by David GriffithSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
85.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:1617% → 20%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
82.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 6 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+5
82.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 5 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
81.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 12 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
81.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 11 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
80.7%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
79.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
80.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 42 yds, downed at the GeoSo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 4:3381% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
81.2%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
81.1%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Wesley FieldsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+10
80.2%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 10 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
82.4%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
82.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
82.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
83.0%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+21
83.1%
Montay Crockett run for 21 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
84.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 14 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-6
84.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-7
83.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Favian UpshawSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
81.7%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
80.6%
Younghoe Koo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.5%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
79.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to De'Vonte HaggertySimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
80.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 42 yds , Montay Crockett returns for 15 yds to the LaMon 42 UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Dayton Balvanz) to the LaMon 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5882% → 84%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
81.7%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
82.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+2
82.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
81.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-5
80.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
83.5%
Younghoe Koo 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj TurnerSimilar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
82.3%
Marcus Green run for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
80.9%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Ironhead GallonSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
81.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
83.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Montay Crockett at the GeoSo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21FUMBLE
10 plays · 78 yds · 0:0082% → 85%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
82.1%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Kevin Ackerman for 12 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.3%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+45
81.6%
Favian Upshaw run for 30 yds to the GASOUTHERN 39 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Nick Ingram) to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
85.1%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
85.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
84.2%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
85.1%
Wesley Fields run for 9 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
85.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
85.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Derion FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
79.2%
Thomas Koufie run for 4 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
79.2%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+1
80.2%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 5
OWN 11
+14
81.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 51 yds , Montay Crockett returns for 14 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3182% → 92%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
81.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
79.9%
Wesley Fields run for 20 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
82.8%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+10
81.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+8
81.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
83.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III, PENALTY ULM holding (Backus, Justin) 10 yards to the ULM19, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
83.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 17 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
83.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.1%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3910% → 30%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (Ryan George) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
89.6%
Marcus Green run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
89.4%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+57
89.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 57 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
87.6%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
87.6%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 2:1477% → 72%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.1%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
76.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Curtis Rainey) to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+10
76.7%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
75.6%
Favian Upshaw run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+15
72.2%
Matt Flynn punt 39 yards to the ULM30, downed, PENALTY ULM personal foul (Koufie, Thomas) 15 yards to the GS46, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
76.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 48 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Curtis Rainey) to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 18
OWN 38
-5
74.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Kevin Ackerman) to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 23
OWN 33
+4
73.5%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 19
OWN 37
0
73.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+6
72.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
71.7%
Matt Flynn punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26MISSED FG
20 plays · 41 yds · 4:1433% → 14%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
67.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+20
68.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 20 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
62.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 3 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
62.7%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+10
63.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
60.4%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-4
60.7%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+15
66.7%
Smith, Garrett pass incomplete to Dotsy, Grant (Darius Jones Jr.), PENALTY GS pass interference (Darius Jones Jr.) 15 yards to the GS21, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
59.8%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
59.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-10
62.2%
Garrett Smith sacked by Chris DeLaRosa for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
71.2%
Craig Ford 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by RJ Murray GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 14
OPP 43
+42
71.2%
Craig Ford 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by RJ MurraySimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-2
87.9%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-2
87.4%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 12
OWN 41
-5
86.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27PUNT
9 plays · -22 yds · 1:0690% → 84%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
89.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+2
87.5%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 23
OWN 45
-2
88.7%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 32
OWN 36
0
87.0%
Matt Flynn punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 25
OWN 43
-2
88.4%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 27
OWN 41
-5
88.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 2 yds Xavier Brown fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Bernard DawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 2 yds Xavier Brown fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Bernard DawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:12
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-17.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.9
TD · Q4 12:51
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com