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APSU

Austin Peay 17 at Troy 57

TROY
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:24 · Devin Stuart punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 35 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Melvin Tyus) to the Troy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+47.6Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:18: Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK) — APSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK) — APSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:35: Sawyer Smith pass complete to Hiram Velez for 47 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:47: Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:45: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 49 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3APSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24APSU 4th & 12 at APSU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48APSU 4th & 3 at TROY 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:47APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 30, down 13
    Close callPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:33APSU 4th & 4 at TROY 15, down 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:33TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 42, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 14, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28APSU 4th & 6 at APSU 38, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:14APSU 4th & 12 at APSU 5, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:23TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 49, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:44APSU 4th & 6 at TROY 47, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:26APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 24, down 40
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8APSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:24TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:48TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:18APSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:07APSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:35TROY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:47TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:45TROY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:53TROY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:14TROY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:39TROY Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.4%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to Jared Beard for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+19
98.4%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to James Coleman for 19 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.4%
Kyran Moore run for 4 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
98.4%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+3
98.4%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to James Coleman for 3 yds to the APeay 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Kendall Morris run for no gain to the APeay 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
98.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 48 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
98.1%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
98.1%
Kendall Morris run for 5 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+9
98.1%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to Jared Beard for 9 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.1%
Timarious Mitchell pass incomplete, broken up by Baron PooleSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.1%
Jalen Marsalis run for 6 yds to the APeay 43Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
98.1%
Mitchell,Timar. sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY offside defense (Dillard, Rashad) 5 yards to the APSU48, 1ST DOWN APSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.1%
Kendall Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 47Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
98.1%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to Kendall Morris for 4 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
98.1%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, false start (James Coleman) to the APeay 46Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+29
98.1%
Devin Stuart punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TROY 35 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Melvin Tyus) to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
98.1%
Timarious Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5998% → 98%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 9 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
97.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the APeay 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.8%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
97.7%
Jabir Frye run for 8 yds to the APeay 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the APeay 25Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+7
97.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the APeay 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 9 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+6
97.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the APeay 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:302% → 3%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.8%
Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 15 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Kyran Moore run for no gain to the APeay 40 Kyran Moore fumbled, forced by Justin Lucas, recovered by APeay Byron GlassSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
97.8%
Tommy Hays run for 15 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
97.8%
Tommy Hays run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
97.8%
Rashaan Coleman run for 2 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
97.8%
Marvin Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+5
97.8%
Tommy Hays run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
97.7%
Tommy Hays pass complete to Kyran Moore for 28 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
97.7%
Tommy Hays run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 6Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.6%
Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
97.0%
Silvers, B. sideline pass complete to Douglas, D. for 7 yards to the TROY44 (Taylor,Trent), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Douglas, D.) 15 yards to the TROY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+6
96.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 6 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+6
96.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 6 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
96.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+5
96.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Kyran Moore returns for 5 yds to the APeay 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:533% → 6%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
96.7%
Tommy Hays run for 9 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Tommy Hays pass incomplete to James ColemanSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+10
96.6%
Julian Franklin run for 10 yds to the APeay 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
96.5%
Julian Franklin run for a loss of 5 yards to the APeay 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
96.7%
Kendall Morris run for 5 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+36
96.7%
Tommy Hays pass complete to Jared Beard for 36 yds to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
96.4%
Carlos Walden run for 3 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
96.4%
Tommy Hays pass complete to Jermer Braswell for 1 yd to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
94.1%
Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3295% → 96%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.7%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+29
94.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+1
95.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the APeay 47 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Jule Pace, recovered by Troy Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
96.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Hiram Velez for 47 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.7%
Tommy Hays run for no gain to the APeay 18Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
95.7%
Kentel Williams run for 1 yd to the APeay 19Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
95.9%
Tommy Hays pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
96.0%
Devin Stuart punt for 30 yds, downed at the APeay 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:0696% → 97%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.0%
Jabir Frye run for 2 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
96.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
96.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+13
96.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds to the APeay 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
96.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the APeay 11Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
96.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 2 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+5
95.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the APeay 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the APeay 1Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
96.8%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
96.8%
Rashaan Coleman run for 3 yds to the APeay 26Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
96.8%
Tommy Hays run for 4 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+5
96.7%
Devin Stuart punt for 40 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 5 yds to the Troy 32 Cedarius Rookard fumbled, forced by Benedict Louis, recovered by APeay Benedict LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
96.1%
Kyran Moore run for 8 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+3
96.0%
Kendall Morris run for 3 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.0%
Kendall Morris run for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
96.1%
Tommy Hays pass intercepted Kamryn Melton return for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
96.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 9
0
96.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+38
96.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 38 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
97.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST down AUSTINPEAY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 15 yds to the APeay 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
96.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the APeay 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+43
97.0%
Ryan Kay 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1597% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.8%
Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+14
96.9%
Josh Anderson run for 14 yds to the APeay 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
98.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 49 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:122% → 2%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.3%
Tommy Hays run for 9 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-4
98.2%
Kendall Morris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+15
98.4%
TROY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Julian Franklin run for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-10
98.2%
Hays,Tommy rush right for 10 yards to the TROY11 (Rountree, Jalen), PENALTY APSU holding 10 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+16
98.3%
Tommy Hays pass complete to Kyran Moore for 16 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
98.4%
Tommy Hays run for no gain to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
98.3%
Nick Gauna 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+10
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jabir Frye for 5 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
98.8%
Jabir Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Ismail Saleem, broken up by Roderick OwensSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 45 yds, downed at the APeay 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
98.6%
Kendall Morris run for 2 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-1
98.6%
Kendall Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 14Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
98.7%
Tommy Hays pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
98.7%
Devin Stuart punt for 49 yds, downed at the Troy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 9 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
98.9%
Josh Anderson run for 7 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
98.9%
Jabir Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 44 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 17
OWN 46
+15
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 15 yds to the APeay 39Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+10
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 10 yds to the APeay 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 6 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-9
98.9%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the APeay 17 TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the APeay 32Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 32 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood KICK)Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Timarious Mitchell pass complete to Jared Beard for 6 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-2
99.8%
Marvin Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Timarious Mitchell pass incomplete to Marvin FranklinSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+28
99.9%
Devin Stuart punt for 32 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 28 yds to the APeay 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the APeay 37Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Josh Anderson run for 9 yds to the APeay 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-5
99.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the APeay 27Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+10
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the APeay 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the APeay 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+3
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the APeay 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Andre Flakes run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bratcher Underwood PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 5 yds to the APeay 12Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 12
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Timarious Mitchell pass incomplete to Kyran MooreSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 12
-7
100.0%
Timarious Mitchell sacked by Zo Bridges for a loss of 7 yards to the APeay 5Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 12
OWN 5
+64
100.0%
Devin Stuart punt for 54 yds, downed at the TROY 41 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (Melvin Tyus) to the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Adarius Wesley for 12 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Adarius Wesley for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
99.9%
Smith, B.J. rush left for 7 yards to the TROY38 (Jackson,Jamel), PENALTY TROY personal foul 8 yards to the TROY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 18
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Adarius Wesley for 8 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Adarius Wesley for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the APeay 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
100.0%
Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 8 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Carlos Walden run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-4
100.0%
Carlos Walden run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
100.0%
Devin Stuart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
99.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Richard Hallman for 7 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+17
99.9%
Jabir Frye run for 17 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 8 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
100.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Frye for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
50
+50
100.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chandler Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Tommy Hays run for 5 yds to the APeay 20Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 21Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Tommy Hays run for 3 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Devin Stuart punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Andre Flakes at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
100.0%
B.J. Smith run for 15 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the APeay 49Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+8
100.0%
B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the APeay 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:07
Tommy Hays pass complete to James Coleman for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q3 13:45
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Ismail Saleem for 49 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 4:47
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com