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SOU

Southern 21 at UL Monroe 38

ULM
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadSOU aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreSOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:17 · Taylor Merritt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+8.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:59: Ruan Albuquerque 38 yd FG GOOD — SOU win probability +4.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 7:17: Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 28 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +9.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:00: Craig Ford 24 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:34: Garrett Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +8.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:11: Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 6SOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:37SOU 4th & 7 at ULM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21SOU 4th & 5 at SOU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47ULM 4th & 6 at SOU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 5
    Close callPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17SOU 4th & 19 at SOU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:26SOU 4th & 19 at ULM 31, down 5
    Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:19ULM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 5
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:13SOU 4th & 21 at SOU 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:17SOU 4th & 5 at SOU 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:00ULM 4th & 4 at SOU 7, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.6%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:19SOU 4th & 10 at ULM 11, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:51ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 37, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:11ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:47SOU 4th & 3 at SOU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:21ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:16ULM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:14SOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:17ULM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:34ULM Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:11SOU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.3%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:50ULM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SOUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:2314% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.0%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie Quinn, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
86.0%
Lenard Tillery run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+7
86.0%
Austin Howard pass complete to Dillon Beard for 7 yds to the Sthrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.0%
Lenard Tillery run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
86.0%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Lenard TillerySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
86.0%
Austin Howard pass complete to Dillon Beard for 17 yds to the Sthrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
86.0%
Curtlan Williams run for 30 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.0%
Lenard Tillery run for 3 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
86.0%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie Quinn, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
86.0%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie QuinnSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
84.9%
Ruan Albuquerque 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:1685% → 85%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.9%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 9 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
85.0%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 9 yds to the Sthrn 44Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
85.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for no gain to the Sthrn 44Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
85.1%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
85.1%
Ben Luckett run for 14 yds to the Sthrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.2%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the Sthrn 28Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+20
85.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 20 yds to the Sthrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
85.2%
Thomas Koufie run for a loss of 5 yards to the Sthrn 13Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
84.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
84.6%
Austin Howard run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 18Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
84.6%
Austin Howard run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 23Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+4
84.7%
Lenard Tillery run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.6%
Lenard Tillery run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 32Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
84.5%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Dillon BeardSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
84.6%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie Quinn, broken up by Justin BackusSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
84.8%
Taylor Merritt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:3284% → 86%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
83.9%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+31
83.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 31 yds to the Sthrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
84.4%
Marcus Green run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 37Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
84.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ben LuckettSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
84.3%
Garrett Smith run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 32Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-5
84.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Sthrn 37Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+7
83.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 7 yds to the Sthrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Tre' PerrierSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
86.3%
Ben Luckett run for 30 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0214% → 18%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.4%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 9 yds to the Sthrn 34Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
86.1%
Lenard Tillery run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
86.1%
Lenard Tillery run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 2
50
+8
85.7%
Lenard Tillery run for 8 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
85.9%
Howard,A. pass incomplete (Hubbard, Marcus), PENALTY ULM holding (Warren, S.) 10 yards to the ULM32, 1ST DOWN SUBR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
85.6%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
85.5%
John West run for 4 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.5%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Dillon Beard, broken up by Tre' HunterSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
85.6%
Lenard Tillery run for 14 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
85.5%
Lenard Tillery run for 6 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.3%
Lenard Tillery run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ruan Albuquerque PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:1483% → 83%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.8%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
82.7%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+7
83.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Tre' Perrier for 7 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Montavious GainesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
83.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
50
0
83.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj Turner, broken up by Demerio HoustonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
50
+18
82.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 33 yds, downed at the ULMONROE 17 UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Sthrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.1%
Austin Howard run for no gain to the Sthrn 32Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-9
83.2%
Austin Howard sacked by Caleb Tucker for a loss of 9 yards to the Sthrn 23 SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 19
OWN 23
0
83.7%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie Quinn SOUTHERN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
83.9%
Taylor Merritt punt for 34 yds , Marcus Green returns for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
82.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-14
82.7%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Danny Johnson return for 1 yd to the LaMon 47 UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5618% → 16%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
81.7%
Willie Quinn run for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Tre' Hunter) to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
81.1%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Curtlan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
81.2%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for no gain to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-9
81.8%
Austin Howard sacked by David Griffith for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 19
OPP 31
0
84.0%
Austin Howard punt for 31 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
83.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 5 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
83.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 13 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
83.7%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
50
+1
83.9%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 49Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
83.7%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 4
50
0
83.1%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Danny Johnson at the Sthrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:2717% → 23%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
83.5%
Lenard Tillery run for 28 yds to the Sthrn 47 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Sthrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
83.2%
Austin Howard run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 36Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
82.9%
Austin Howard pass complete to Austin Opara for 4 yds to the Sthrn 40Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+12
82.2%
Lenard Tillery run for 12 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
81.8%
Austin Howard pass complete to Dillon Beard for 14 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
81.1%
John West run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33 SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Opara) to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 18
OPP 43
+17
82.6%
Austin Howard pass complete to Dillon Beard for 17 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+4
81.1%
Austin Howard run for 4 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
81.1%
Lenard Tillery run for 19 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
81.1%
Howard,A. rush for loss of 1 yard to the ULM4, out-of-bounds (Day, Chase;Backus, Justin), PENALTY SUBR holding (Lee,T.) 10 yards to the ULM13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
81.1%
Lenard Tillery run for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
81.1%
Austin Howard pass complete to Austin Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-5
82.9%
Austin Howard sacked by Chase Day for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
76.6%
Ruan Albuquerque 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
78.2%
Austin Vaughn run for 5 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
78.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
77.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 5 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
78.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13INT
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:0078% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+53
77.7%
Garrett Smith run for 53 yds to the Sthrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
80.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the Sthrn 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
80.1%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 4Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
79.3%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the Sthrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+16
80.1%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Danny Johnson return for 16 yds to the Sthrn 19 Danny Johnson fumbled, forced by Xavier Brown,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
75.8%
Lenard Tillery run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 24Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+5
75.6%
Lenard Tillery run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
75.6%
Lenard Tillery run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 31Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
75.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaylen Veasley) to the Sthrn 36Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
74.3%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 6 yds to the Sthrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
74.1%
Lenard Tillery run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 44Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-3
73.9%
Lenard Tillery run for a loss of 3 yards to the Sthrn 41Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-10
75.7%
Austin Howard sacked by Tre' Hunter for a loss of 10 yards to the Sthrn 31Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
77.6%
Taylor Merritt punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Sthrn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2278% → 87%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
77.8%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 43Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+11
77.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 11 yds to the Sthrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
78.7%
Garrett Smith sacked by Kentavious Preston for a loss of 3 yards to the Sthrn 35Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+7
77.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ben Luckett for 7 yds to the Sthrn 28Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+28
86.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 28 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
84.5%
Lenard Tillery run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 43Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-3
83.7%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for a loss of 3 yards to the Sthrn 40Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
84.3%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Dillon BeardSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
85.3%
Taylor Merritt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:0686% → 92%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
85.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 11 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.6%
Ajalen Holley run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
86.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+12
85.3%
Garrett Smith run for 12 yds to the Sthrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
87.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Sthrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
87.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 23 yds to the Sthrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.2%
Austin Vaughn run for no gain to the Sthrn 13Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
88.2%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 7Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
87.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
91.6%
Craig Ford 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4111% → 14%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
89.0%
Herbert Edwards run for 26 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
87.7%
Herbert Edwards run for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+8
87.7%
Deonte Shorts run for 8 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
87.7%
Deonte Shorts run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+2
88.1%
Herbert Edwards run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
89.1%
Deonte Shorts pass incomplete to Austin Opara, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
86.1%
Ruan Albuquerque 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 0:4587% → 96%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
87.1%
Ben Luckett run for 23 yds to the Sthrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to De'Vonte HaggertySimilar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
88.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to De'Vonte Haggerty for 6 yds to the Sthrn 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+23
87.9%
Garrett Smith run for 23 yds to the Sthrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.0%
Garrett Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
93.7%
Lenard Tillery run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+14
92.8%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 14 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.6%
Lenard Tillery run for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
92.6%
Austin Howard pass intercepted, touchback. Aaron Townsend return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 10 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
96.6%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
96.7%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 37 Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by LaMon Garrett Smith , return for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:375% → 12%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
95.3%
Lenard Tillery run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 36Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
95.2%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 5 yds to the Sthrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
95.2%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 18 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
95.1%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Willie QuinnSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
95.1%
Austin Howard run for 7 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+13
94.7%
Austin Howard pass complete to Dontrell Brown for 13 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
94.2%
Lenard Tillery run for 4 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
94.2%
Howard,A. pass incomplete, PENALTY ULM holding (Moorehead, C.) 8 yards to the ULM9, 1ST DOWN SUBR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.2%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Dontrell BrownSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.8%
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
92.2%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
92.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Rj TurnerSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+12
91.9%
Garrett Smith run for 12 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.9%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
92.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Andrea AugustineSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
91.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Willie Quinn at the Sthrn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
93.7%
Lenard Tillery run for no gain to the Sthrn 6Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
93.7%
Austin Howard pass complete to Stacy Piro for 7 yds to the Sthrn 13Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
93.7%
Austin Howard pass incomplete to Dillon Beard, broken up by Marcus HubbardSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
94.0%
Taylor Merritt punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:5094% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
94.1%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 39Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+2
94.1%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 37Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
93.9%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.3%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 24Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+16
96.6%
Garrett Smith run for 16 yds to the Sthrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.6%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 6Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
98.3%
West,J. rush for 2 yards to the SUBR39 (Houston, Howard), PENALTY SUBR illegal formation 5 yards to the SUBR32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+4
98.4%
John West run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:17
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 28 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 14:34
Garrett Smith run for 13 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q4 8:11
Austin Howard pass complete to Willie Quinn for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com