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MIA

Miami 34 at Virginia 14

UVA
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:53 · Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Marquez Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior−3.3Home team on offense−48.9Score differential−26.9Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:28: Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +3.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:42: Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +8.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 10:48: Michael Badgley 44 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +2.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:25: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +14.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: Mark Walton run for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54MIA 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07UVA 4th & 2 at MIA 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:16MIA 4th & 3 at UVA 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:42MIA 4th & 20 at UVA 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:48MIA 4th & 10 at UVA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:00MIA 4th & 7 at UVA 33, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:00UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 42, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:25UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 7, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54UVA 4th & 17 at MIA 47, down 13
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:53MIA 4th & 5 at UVA 26, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:49UVA 4th & 8 at MIA 15, down 20
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:29UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:28MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:42UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:25MIA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:17MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
20.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-1
20.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
20.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
20.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
50
0
20.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
50
0
20.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, illegal kicking (Michael Badgley) to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
21.6%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Micah Kiser return for 7 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5422% → 24%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
21.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
21.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (Kendrick Norton) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-10
21.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+6
21.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+10
21.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
21.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2076% → 76%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
23.4%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
23.4%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
23.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 1
50
0
23.3%
Brad Kaaya run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 1
50
+26
25.7%
Mark Walton run for 26 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
25.2%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+13
25.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 13 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
23.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:0225% → 27%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
24.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
24.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
25.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 5
OWN 43
-2
25.7%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Rayshawn Jenkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+11
27.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
27.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
27.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
26.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:2173% → 74%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
26.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
26.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
26.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
26.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+15
27.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
25.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 2
50
+5
25.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
26.1%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+12
26.1%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
25.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Gus Edwards, broken up by Chris PeaceSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
25.8%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
26.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
26.2%
Michael Badgley 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
26.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
26.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
26.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
25.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 31 yds, downed at the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:3274% → 78%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+44
26.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 44 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
25.5%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
25.5%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
22.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
17 plays · 73 yds · 6:4622% → 32%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
21.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
21.5%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+7
21.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
22.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 12 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
22.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+6
22.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
22.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+22
21.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 22 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
23.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
23.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
23.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
23.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Brendan Marshall for 16 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
23.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
23.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
23.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
31.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
29.9%
Gus Edwards run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
28.9%
Gus Edwards run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-6
28.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Gus Edwards for 9 yds to the MiaFl 49 MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
29.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+32
30.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 32 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
26.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
26.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
28.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 20
OPP 44
0
29.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
30.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
29.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1271% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
29.3%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+14
30.3%
Mark Walton run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
28.3%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
28.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 6 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+7
28.4%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
27.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 15 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
27.4%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
28.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
25.6%
Michael Badgley 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0028% → 31%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
28.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
29.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
30.0%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Chad Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+5
28.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
28.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
31.4%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Corn Elder for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Joe Jackson , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4677% → 75%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
50
+14
23.1%
Gus Edwards run for 14 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
23.1%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
22.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 2 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
23.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
25.4%
Michael Badgley 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
29.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
29.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
30.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
29.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds, downed at the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:2274% → 88%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
25.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+7
26.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 7 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+77
12.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
17.0%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Demetrius Jackson and Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+2
15.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-2
15.4%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Shaquille Quarterman and RJ McIntosh for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
15.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 50 yds, downed at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2489% → 89%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
11.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
11.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-4
11.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 12
-5
11.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
11.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:0017% → 14%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
16.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 19
OPP 49
-5
14.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Keeon Johnson) to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 24
OWN 46
+7
14.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 17
OPP 47
-14
14.2%
Nicholas Conte run for a loss of 14 yards to the Virg 39 Nicholas Conte fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Trent HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 2:1990% → 98%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
9.7%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+19
9.5%
Mark Walton run for 19 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
9.3%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
2.0%
Mark Walton run for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
2.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.7%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Virg 48 Kurt Benkert fumbled, forced by Joe Jackson, recovered by MiaFl Darrion OwensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:2698% → 99%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
1.8%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
1.8%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+12
1.8%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
1.8%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
1.8%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+2
1.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 5
OPP 26
0
1.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Marquez WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:581% → 0%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
0.9%
Albert Reid run for 14 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
1.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+44
0.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 44 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
1.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
1.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
1.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 8
OPP 15
0
0.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
1.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
0.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26 Joseph Yearby fumbled, forced by Wilfred Wahee, recovered by Virg Matt TerrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
0.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+5
0.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside (Anthony Moten) to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
0.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-14
0.4%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 19 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Jack McDonald) to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+23
0.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 23 yds Taquan Mizzell fumbled, forced by Sheldrick Redwine, recovered by MiaFl Corn ElderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+15
0.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Matt Terrell) to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-1
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-1
0.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:25
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 77 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q2 2:42
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q4 11:17
Mark Walton run for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com