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UNC

North Carolina 20 at Miami 13

MIA
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:02 · Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+23.4Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:34: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:39: Michael Badgley 47 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +13.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:38: Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +13.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:54: Michael Badgley 22 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +9.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 12UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:02MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32UNC 4th & 18 at MIA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 19, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 19, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:39MIA 4th & 21 at UNC 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51UNC 4th & 20 at MIA 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:30MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−2.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:56UNC 4th & 11 at MIA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 23, down 10
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:21UNC 4th & 3 at MIA 22, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:27MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:23UNC 4th & 25 at UNC 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:03MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:53UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:57UNC 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−4.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−16.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:27MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:44UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:28MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:54MIA 4th & 4 at UNC 4, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−10.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:45UNC 4th & 22 at MIA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:34UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:18UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:38MIA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4374% → 74%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
74.1%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 6
-3
74.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-3 Yards) to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
74.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+1
73.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 1 yd to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
73.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:2326% → 27%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.6%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
73.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+40
73.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 40 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
73.3%
Khris Francis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
73.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
73.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-5
73.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 18
OPP 25
0
73.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 18
OPP 25
+42
73.5%
Nick Weiler 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3MISSED FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 5:3673% → 72%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.3%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
73.3%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
73.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.2%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
73.3%
Mark Walton run for 10 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.2%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
73.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
73.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
72.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
73.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 5 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
72.7%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
72.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+35
71.9%
Michael Badgley 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jalen DaltonSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+35
71.9%
Michael Badgley 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jalen DaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:4529% → 34%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
71.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 8 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.2%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
71.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
70.2%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+30
70.2%
T.J. Logan run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
69.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
69.4%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+15
69.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 15 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
68.7%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
68.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
68.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 3
OWN 3
-5
65.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:2064% → 64%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
63.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
64.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 15 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
64.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Marquez WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
64.4%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
64.5%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+12
63.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 12 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
64.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+4
63.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 21
OPP 29
0
62.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 21
OPP 29
0
61.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+47
63.6%
Michael Badgley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:3537% → 38%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.3%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
62.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
63.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 15 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
61.4%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+18
61.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
60.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-2
60.3%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
61.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 15
OPP 42
-5
62.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 20
OPP 47
0
62.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4861% → 60%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
61.4%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+33
60.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 33 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
62.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+22
61.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 22 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
63.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
63.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
61.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
59.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2243% → 49%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.2%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
55.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
54.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
54.6%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
54.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
53.4%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
53.0%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
52.2%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+2
52.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
52.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+52
51.4%
Nick Weiler 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0950% → 47%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
49.7%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
48.7%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
47.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+36
47.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the MIAMI 26 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:4752% → 71%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
47.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
47.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+50
47.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 50 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
45.0%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
44.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
43.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0645% → 45%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
45.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 11 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
45.4%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:2967% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
32.6%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
31.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
31.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+20
32.2%
Elijah Hood run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
29.4%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+19
28.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 19 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
27.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
27.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
26.5%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
27.9%
Nick Weiler 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by RJ McIntoshSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4830% → 29%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
29.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
29.1%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
28.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
28.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:4874% → 77%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
25.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
24.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
24.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
23.8%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-10
23.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+5
23.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-12
22.5%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Corn Elder for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 25
OWN 37
0
23.5%
Tom Sheldon punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1524% → 23%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
23.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
23.5%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
23.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5479% → 80%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
20.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+4
20.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
20.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5423% → 38%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+30
22.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 30 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
24.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 26 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
24.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:3167% → 71%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.6%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
32.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
50
+11
28.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
28.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 27 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
27.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.8%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
29.4%
Mitch Trubisky run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2128% → 24%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
27.7%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
26.4%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+25
24.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 25 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
26.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
26.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
25.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
23.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2975% → 74%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
24.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
23.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
24.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
25.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:3923% → 28%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
23.3%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
23.6%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
22.8%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
18.9%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-9
19.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+15
16.8%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC personal foul 15 yards to the MIAMI44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
19.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+42
19.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 42 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
21.8%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
21.6%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
28.4%
Michael Badgley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
15 plays · 29 yds · 4:4879% → 94%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
20.8%
T.J. Logan run for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
16.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
16.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
15.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
13.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
12.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
12.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
10.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-5
8.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+3
8.8%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
5.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 17
OPP 41
-5
6.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
6.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1316% → 17%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
15.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 11 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
16.6%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 16 Brad Kaaya fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah Clarke , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2695% → 96%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
4.6%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-2
4.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+13
4.8%
Elijah Hood run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:38
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+13.8
TD · Q2 0:18
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-13.5
FG · Q4 6:54
Michael Badgley 22 yd FG GOOD
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com