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FSU

Florida State 20 at Miami 19

MIA
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:06 · Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense+4.1Garbage-time factor+0.7Pregame prior+1.5Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:40: Stacy Coley 21 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +6.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:06: Dalvin Cook 59 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 3:32: Kermit Whitfield 20 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +23.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:02: Ricky Aguayo 32 Yd Field Goal — FSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:38: Stacy Coley 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT blocked) — MIA win probability +29.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:04MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45FSU 4th & 3 at MIA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36FSU 4th & 18 at FSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:16MIA 4th & 6 at FSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:14FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:21FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:16MIA 4th & 2 at FSU 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06FSU 4th & 3 at MIA 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−1.3
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:17FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:06MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:27MIA 4th & 15 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:02FSU 4th & 2 at MIA 15, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%−2.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−18.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:48MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−3.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:19FSU 4th & 21 at FSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−5.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:38MIA 4th & 5 at FSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−4.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−8.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:40MIA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:06FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:32FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:38MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4954% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.1%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
54.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 4 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
54.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 6 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
54.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 63 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 13 yds to the FlaSt 43 MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mark Walton) to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 5:1146% → 46%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
54.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
54.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 3 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
54.1%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
54.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
54.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
54.0%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
54.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 5 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
53.9%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-1
53.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin Cook, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5555% → 55%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
54.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
55.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
55.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by A.J. WestbrookSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
54.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:0345% → 44%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
54.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 6 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+10
54.3%
Deondre Francois run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 30 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Deondre Francois Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 30 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+3
54.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 18
OWN 31
0
55.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by RJ McIntoshSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+11
55.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 39 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:0856% → 57%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
55.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 1
50
+3
56.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
56.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
57.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 11 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
57.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-1
57.1%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
56.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
56.7%
Michael Badgley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5543% → 42%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
56.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.0%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
56.2%
Sean Maguire pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-10
55.8%
Sean Maguire sacked by Gerald Willis and Joe Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+5
58.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Ahmmon Richards) to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
58.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaFl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4757% → 56%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
56.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
56.5%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
57.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
57.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
56.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm Lewis, broken up by Levonta TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+49
55.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 49 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:5042% → 46%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
57.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+54
57.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 54 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
54.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+11
54.5%
Sean Maguire pass intercepted Jaquan Johnson return for 11 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:3758% → 68%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
57.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 12 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
58.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 12 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
60.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
61.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
61.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+27
60.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 27 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
61.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Stacy Coley) to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-4
61.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 19
OPP 21
0
61.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 19
OPP 21
+21
68.0%
Stacy Coley 21 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1232% → 30%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
68.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 16 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit Whitfield, broken up by Rayshawn JenkinsSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
67.3%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis Rudolph, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
70.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:5470% → 75%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
69.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 38 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
72.1%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Berrios, Braxton, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (White, Marquez) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
72.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Braxton Berrios) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+4
70.7%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+51
75.3%
Michael Badgley 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 1:0325% → 31%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
74.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 28 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
72.5%
Deondre Francois run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
70.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+14
74.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
71.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
72.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
72.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
68.8%
Ricky Aguayo 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3029% → 25%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.2%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
71.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
74.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus Wilson, broken up by Michael PinckneySimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+4
75.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 45 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 19 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:5474% → 77%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
73.6%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+12
75.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 12 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
75.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 2 yds to the MIAMI 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Matthew Thomas) to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST down. Matthew Thomas ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
76.3%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+18
76.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 18 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
76.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Stacy Coley) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
77.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
76.9%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted, touchback. Tarvarus McFadden return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0526% → 41%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
76.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
77.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
77.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
59.5%
Dalvin Cook 59 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4864% → 62%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Standish DobardSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
63.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
62.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
62.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:2840% → 64%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
60.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
59.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+11
59.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 11 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
58.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
58.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+14
59.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 14 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
35.6%
Kermit Whitfield 20 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:5943% → 42%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.3%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
46.0%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ermon Lane) to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
47.8%
Walton, Mark rush for 45 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY MIAMI holding (St. Louis, Tyree) 10 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+1
44.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+4
43.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 15
50
0
42.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 15
50
0
41.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 7:1861% → 79%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
39.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-10
37.9%
Cook, Dalvin rush for 12 yards to the FLORIDAST32, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Eberle, Alec) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+14
39.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 14 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
37.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+1
35.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
35.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
35.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
32.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
31.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+10
31.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
30.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
28.4%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
29.2%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
21.4%
Ricky Aguayo 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:0828% → 20%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.2%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IV, broken up by Ro'Derrick HoskinsSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
25.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 17 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
29.9%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
29.4%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Berrios, Braxton, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (White, Marquez) 7 yards to the FLORIDAST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
31.3%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-6
28.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 17
OWN 46
-3
22.9%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 20
OWN 43
0
20.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:2382% → 85%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
18.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
15.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Mavin SaundersSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+15
16.7%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Whitfield, Kermit, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Carter Sr., Jamal) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. Jamal Carter Sr. ejected for Targeting.Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
14.9%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+3
15.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-11
14.7%
Deondre Francois sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 16 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Deondre Francois) to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 21
OWN 16
+43
15.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 43 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:2430% → 52%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
30.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
30.5%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-2
23.3%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+11
52.4%
Stacy Coley 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:5067% → 81%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
32.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+10
28.5%
Deondre Francois run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
21.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
19.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-2
18.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:38
Stacy Coley 11 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT blocked)
+29.1
TD · Q3 3:32
Kermit Whitfield 20 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
-23.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com