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Florida Atlantic 10 at Miami 38

MIA
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:15 · Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Henry Bussey III at the MIAMI 31 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense+31.0Score differential+22.1Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:53: Mark Walton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:37: Mark Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +3.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:43: Mark Walton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:50: Gregory Howell Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +4.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:44: Mark Walton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at MIA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 21 at MIA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:21MIA 4th & 6 at FAU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:21FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:48FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:17MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:15FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:07FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:49MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:51FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:46FAU 4th & 9 at MIA 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:30FAU 4th & 5 at MIA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:31FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:00MIA 4th & 4 at FAU 10, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:50MIA 4th & 3 at FAU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:44FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:15MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:13FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:53MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:37MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:43MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:50FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:44MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:00MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
95.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 17 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
95.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+15
95.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 15 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
95.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Gregory Howell Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-6
95.3%
Jason Driskel sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 38
-5
95.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 43
0
95.3%
TEAM punt blocked by RJ McIntosh blocked by RJ McIntoshSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 43
-5
95.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 26
OPP 48
+5
95.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:1194% → 94%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
94.4%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+9
94.4%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-16
94.4%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 40 MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 26
OWN 45
+46
94.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 46 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
94.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
94.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
93.6%
Michael Badgley 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Trey Hendrickson Raekwon Williams return for no gain to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
93.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+8
93.5%
Jason Driskel run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
93.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+4
93.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 45 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
93.3%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Nate Ozdemir return for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
92.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 12
50
+1
92.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-8
92.9%
Jason Driskel sacked by Michael Pinckney and Rayshawn Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
93.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
92.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+4
92.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
92.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
92.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
92.2%
DRISKEL, Jason pass complete to HARRISON, T for 13 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (Redwine,S.), PENALTY FAU holding (THOMAS, Tarrick) 10 yards to the FAU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 20
OWN 27
0
92.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+15
92.5%
SCHOMP, Dalton punt 38 yards to the UM31, fair catch by Berrios,B., PENALTY UM personal foul (Homer,T.) 15 yards to the FAU46, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
91.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-7
91.9%
Jason Driskel sacked by Michael Pinckney and RJ McIntosh for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+4
92.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
92.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 27 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
91.3%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+7
91.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
91.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
91.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds, downed at the FlAtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
90.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 23 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
90.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
90.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
90.4%
Dalton Schomp punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
90.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
90.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
89.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
89.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler CameronSimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
89.6%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 10
OWN 11
+13
89.8%
Dalton Schomp punt for 41 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 13 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:0690% → 92%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
90.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 20 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
90.5%
Kaaya,B. pass complete to Herndon IV,C. for 14 yards to the FAU5 (YOUNG, Jalen), PENALTY UM holding (Lewis,M.) 10 yards to the FAU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+9
89.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 9 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
90.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+13
89.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 13 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.3%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
91.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamal Carter Sr.) to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
90.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
90.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
90.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-5
90.5%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+12
90.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 12 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-5
90.3%
WHYTE, Kerrith rush for 14 yards to the UM19 (Elder,C.), PENALTY FAU illegal formation 5 yards to the UM38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
90.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib Woods, broken up by Sheldrick RedwineSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
91.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
90.9%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Andrew Soroh return for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4411% → 13%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tyler Cameron, broken up by RJ McIntoshSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
89.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
89.0%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
89.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kerrith Whyte Jr.Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
87.5%
Greg Joseph 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5389% → 93%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
89.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
89.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
89.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.7%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
89.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 11 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+29
89.8%
Mark Walton run for 29 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.1%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:068% → 8%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.9%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
92.1%
Jason Driskel sacked by Chad Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+4
92.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
92.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 41 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
92.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
93.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0092% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
92.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 8 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
92.8%
Mark Walton run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
92.9%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
92.9%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
92.9%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+6
92.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Dayall Harris for 6 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
92.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
92.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 3 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
92.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
94.0%
Michael Badgley 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
93.8%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Rayshawn Jenkins return for no gain to the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 3:1795% → 98%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
94.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 9 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
94.6%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
94.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 1 yd to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+15
94.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Marquez Williams for 15 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
94.6%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Mark Walton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:532% → 7%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
97.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 12 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
97.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
97.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
97.8%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
97.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 21 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
92.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
94.8%
Joseph Yearby run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
95.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+10
95.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 10 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
95.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
94.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IV, broken up by Jalen YoungSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
94.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 46 yds, downed at the FlAtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:256% → 5%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.3%
Jason Driskel run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
94.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+20
94.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 20 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
94.4%
Jason Driskel sacked by Gerald Willis for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
94.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry Bussey III, broken up by Chad ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+8
94.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 8 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5696% → 99%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.3%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
96.3%
Brad Kaaya run for no gain to the FlAtl 25 Brad Kaaya fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Brad KaayaSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-5
96.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Sunny Odogwu) to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Mark Walton run for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
99.1%
Jason Driskel sacked by Jaquan Johnson and Michael Pinckney for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Dalton Schomp punt for 55 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
99.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-15
99.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Stacy Coley) to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+10
99.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+59
99.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Henry Bussey III at the MIAMI 31 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 8 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
99.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
99.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.0%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Mitchell for 4 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
99.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 29TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.6%
Mark Walton run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
99.6%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+23
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 23 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
99.9%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-4
100.0%
Daniel Parr sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:50
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 38 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q3 6:43
Mark Walton run for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 1:37
Mark Walton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com