2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFAMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:43 · Marcus Gaskin run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaAM 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:57: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:02: Joseph Yearby run for 64 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:47: Austin Miller 31 yd FG GOOD — FAMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FAMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:30: Mark Walton run for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:33FAMU 4th & 9 at FAMU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 6:03FAMU 4th & 21 at FAMU 4, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q1 2:11MIA 4th & 8 at FAMU 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%81% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00FAMU 4th & 15 at FAMU 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 9:16FAMU 4th & 5 at FAMU 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 4:47FAMU 4th & 8 at MIA 13, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%85% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:21MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 32, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 12:30FAMU 4th & 8 at FAMU 17, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:20FAMU 4th & 6 at FAMU 33, down 39Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q3 4:47FAMU 4th & 12 at FAMU 9, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 2:56MIA 4th & 4 at FAMU 34, up 53Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%48% to convertField goal99.9%−0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:24FAMU 4th & 14 at FAMU 36, down 60Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00FAMU 4th & 25 at FAMU 27, down 67Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:00FAMU 4th & 8 at FAMU 32, down 67Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 3:10MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 41, up 67Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 12:33MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:03MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:57MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:02MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:30MIA Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20MIA Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:32MIA Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:24MIA Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00MIA Touchdown, up 66 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAMUDrive 1INT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Alonzo Palmer-Hicks for 7 yds to the FlaAM 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaAM 24 Kenneth Coleman fumbled, recovered by FlaAM Kenneth ColemanSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass intercepted Corn Elder return for 2 yds to the FlaAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD3 plays · 28 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q1 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Marquez Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
99.8%
FLORIDA A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the FlaAM 26Similar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 25
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Kenneth Coleman pass incomplete to Kareem Smith, broken up by Chad ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+9
99.8%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Ryan Mayes return for 9 yds to the FlaAM 20Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Montavius Williams for 15 yds to the FlaAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD7 plays · 20 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q1 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the FlaAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 6MISSED FG6 plays · 29 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 13 yds to the FlaAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 14 yds to the FlaAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 2 yds to the FlaAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:110% → 0%
MIADrive 8TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon for 26 yds to the FlaAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+16
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 16 yds to the FlaAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q2 10:57
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+7
99.7%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Montavius Williams for 7 yds to the FlaAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD3 plays · 73 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
FAMUDrive 11FG11 plays · 61 yds · 3:150% → 1%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Montavius Williams for 14 yds to the FlaAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+19
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 19 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+31
99.9%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Desmond Noird for 31 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-8
99.8%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Elijah Price for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+6
99.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds , Kareem Smith returns for 6 yds to the FlaAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 13END OF HALF8 plays · 22 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q2 3:36
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+30
99.4%
Kenneth Coleman pass complete to Kevin Troutman for 30 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.1%
NORWOOD,Brandon pass incomplete to WILLIAMS,Montav (Colbert,A.), PENALTY FAMU ineligible downfield on pass (JONES,T.J.) 5 yards to the UM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-10
99.2%
COLEMAN,Kenneth pass incomplete to PALMER-HICKS,Al, PENALTY FAMU holding (AGUILERA,Osman) 10 yards to the UM45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD9 plays · 69 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
FAMUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:30
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Colby Blanton punt for 34 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for no gain to the FlaAM 17 FLORIDA A&M Penalty, targeting (Austin Miller) to the FlaAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD2 plays · 36 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
FAMUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
99.9%
STANLEY,Ryan pass incomplete to ROYAL,Carson, PENALTY UM roughing passer (Thomas,C.) 15 yards to the FAMU29, 1ST DOWN FAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Ryan Stanley pass complete to Montavius Williams for 5 yds to the FlaAM 28Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Ryan Stanley pass complete to Hans Supre for 5 yds to the FlaAM 33Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 6
OWN 33
-18
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the FlaAM 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaAM Colby BlantonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD5 plays · 15 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q3 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · -2 yds · 1:450% → 0%
FAMUDrive 20INT4 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIADrive 21TD6 plays · 40 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q3 2:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+15
100.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Standish Dobard for 15 yds to the FlaAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:24
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
STANLEY,Ryan pass incomplete to SMITH,Kareem, PENALTY UM OFF (Redwine,S.) 5 yards to the FAMU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ryan Stanley pass incomplete to Hans Supre, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
100.0%
STANLEY,Ryan pass incomplete to SMITH,Kareem (Thomas,C.), PENALTY UM personal foul (Jenkins,C.) 15 yards to the FAMU40, 1ST DOWN FAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
100.0%
Ryan Stanley sacked by Demetrius Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaAM 32Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Colby Blanton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD1 play · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 24PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Ryan Stanley pass complete to Brandon Norwood for 2 yds to the FlaAM 22Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
100.0%
Ryan Stanley pass complete to Marcus Williams for 2 yds to the FlaAM 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-10
100.0%
SUPRE,Hans rush for 1 yard to the FAMU45 (Jackson,M.), PENALTY FAMU holding (HARRIS,Khalil) 10 yards to the FAMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 34
-10
100.0%
STANLEY,Ryan rush for 8 yards to the FAMU42 (Jackson,M.), PENALTY FAMU holding (JONES,T.J.) 10 yards to the FAMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25FUMBLE8 plays · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
100.0%
Gus Edwards run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST down FLORIDA A&M Penalty, OFF ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+27
100.0%
Travis Homer run for 17 yds to the FlaAM 20 for a 1ST down FLORIDA A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Montavius Williams) to the FlaAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
100.0%
Travis Homer run for 7 yds Travis Homer fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FlaAM Tyler WoodleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+9
100.0%
Ryan Stanley pass complete to Marcus Williams for 9 yds to the FlaAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+35
100.0%
Colby Blanton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malcolm Lewis at the MIAMI 33 MIAMI FL Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 4:47
Austin Miller 31 yd FG GOOD
-0.7
TD · Q2 10:57
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon for 16 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 8:02
Joseph Yearby run for 64 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+0.1