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M-OH

Miami (OH) 28 at Eastern Michigan 15

EMU
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:59 · Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense−11.1Score differential−4.9Pregame prior+9.4Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:27: Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +22.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:51: Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EMU win probability +11.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:39: Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 54 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +12.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:43: Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 75 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — EMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:37: Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33 — M-OH win probability +7.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:37EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:05EMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 45, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:28M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 18 at M-OH 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:59M-OH 4th & 11 at EMU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:47EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:33EMU 4th & 9 at M-OH 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 29 at EMU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:40M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:57EMU 4th & 3 at M-OH 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51EMU 4th & 3 at M-OH 4, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−11.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:10M-OH 4th & 6 at EMU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:38EMU 4th & 7 at M-OH 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:45M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 48, up 13
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:37EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:37M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:27M-OH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:51EMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:39M-OH Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:43EMU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2336% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
64.1%
Maurice Thomas run for 45 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
64.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 8 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
64.1%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
64.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
64.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 4 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+8
64.1%
Maurice Thomas run for 8 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.1%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the EMich 2Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.2%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
61.9%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
61.9%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
61.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 60 yds , Jared Murphy returns for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:4439% → 44%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
60.8%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
60.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+28
60.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 13 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
60.1%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, PENALTY EMU offside 5 yards to the MIAMI46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+54
55.7%
Kenny Young run for 54 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
56.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 20 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
57.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
57.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
57.5%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
57.4%
Austin Barnes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3346% → 47%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
54.2%
Maurice Thomas run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
54.3%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
53.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete, broken up by Juan GiraldoSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
53.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 43 , Blake Banham returns for no gain to the EMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1354% → 51%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
53.5%
Breck Turner run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
53.7%
Breck Turner run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
53.7%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
53.7%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
54.1%
Brogan Roback sacked by JT Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-7
52.2%
Brogan Roback sacked by JT Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 41
0
51.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
51.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0751% → 55%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
49.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 10 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.0%
Maurice Thomas rush for 2 yards to the MIAMI32 (BECK, Jason), PENALTY EMU offside (CROSBY, Maxx) 5 yards to the MIAMI35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+2
48.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+7
48.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
48.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 8 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
48.3%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
48.4%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
48.5%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
43.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete, broken up by Juan GiraldoSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
43.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+8
43.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 8 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
44.1%
ROBACK, Brogan pass complete to TURNER, Breck for 2 yards to the EMU36 (AJ Burdine;Brad Koenig), PENALTY EMU holding (TERRELL, Darien) 10 yards to the EMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+6
43.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+8
43.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 8 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+4
44.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 4 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
45.3%
Austin Barnes punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
40.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 28 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
38.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 4 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+11
38.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
38.6%
Gus Ragland sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 44 Gus Ragland fumbled, recovered by EMich Jeremiah Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2640% → 42%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
39.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 45Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
39.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 11 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
40.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 21 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
40.9%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
40.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
40.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine Porter, broken up by Joshua AllenSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
41.7%
Paul Fricano 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1459% → 62%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
41.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
40.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
38.3%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
39.7%
Brogan Roback sacked by Austin Gearing for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 13 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by EMich Brogan Roback , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
-7
39.4%
ROBACK, Brogan pass complete to PORTER, Antoine for 16 yards to the EMU29, out-of-bounds, PENALTY EMU holding (ARMSTRONG, Ka'John) 7 yards to the EMU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 29
OWN 6
0
39.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Nigel KilbySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 6
0
38.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 29
OWN 6
+71
37.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 61 yds, downed at the EASTMICH 33 MIAMI OH Penalty, IB (Cedric Asseh) to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
38.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
38.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
38.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
39.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+4
39.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+14
40.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 44 , Blake Banham returns for 14 yds to the EMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
36.5%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
37.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
37.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John Niupalau, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
35.4%
Austin Barnes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 6:1966% → 92%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
34.4%
Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+12
34.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
32.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
32.3%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+15
32.7%
Gus Ragland sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MIAMI34 (CROSBY, Maxx;O'CONNOR, Pat), PENALTY EMU personal foul (O'CONNOR, Pat) 15 yards to the EMU49, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
31.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
30.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 4 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Maurice ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
30.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 11 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
30.3%
Spencer McInnis run for 5 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+9
30.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
30.3%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+7
30.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the EMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3616% → 25%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-15
15.5%
Brogan Roback sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 15 yards to the EMich 5Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 25
OWN 5
+11
15.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 11 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+27
15.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 27 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+46
17.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 46 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
18.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 8 yds to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-1
18.8%
Willie Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
13.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
25.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0582% → 96%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
18.0%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 8 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
17.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 7 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
16.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
16.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+54
3.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 54 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:487% → 20%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
7.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 7 yds Nigel Kilby fumbled, forced by Junior McMullen, recovered by EMich Dieuly AristildeSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+75
19.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 75 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:2789% → 95%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
11.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
11.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
10.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
10.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
10.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
10.4%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 8
50
+2
5.0%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
5.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:409% → 9%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
9.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 4 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
9.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
8.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 9 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
9.7%
Brogan Roback run for 4 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
10.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
10.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 7 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
10.4%
Brogan Roback run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
9.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
9.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 4 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-1
10.0%
Brogan Roback sacked by Doug Costin for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
9.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Ian Eriksen, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1697% → 98%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
2.6%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
2.2%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
2.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
2.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
2.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 6 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+8
2.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 8 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly AristildeSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
2.3%
ROBACK, Brogan rush for 4 yards to the EMU33, PENALTY EMU holding (WYLIE, Andrew) 10 yards to the EMU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 20
OWN 19
+6
2.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 6 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 14
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+15
2.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 15 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
2.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 11 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to John NiupalauSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
2.6%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Heath Harding return for no gain to the MiaOh 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 3
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:27
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-22.4
TD · Q4 12:39
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 54 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q4 11:43
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 75 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com