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MINN

Minnesota 17 at Wisconsin 31

WIS
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:51 · Ryan Santoso punt for 42 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense−13.6Score differential−3.9Garbage-time factor−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:05: Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 13 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +7.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:53: Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +8.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:58: Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +26.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:42: Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +24.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:15: Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +9.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:11MINN 4th & 3 at WIS 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46WIS 4th & 8 at MINN 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:19MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15WIS 4th & 6 at MINN 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53MINN 4th & 1 at WIS 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:35WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:03WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:03WIS 4th & 3 at MINN 15, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:49WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:51MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52WIS 4th & 23 at WIS 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:56MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−8.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:54WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:38MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 15, down 14
    Close callPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:19WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:05MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:53MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:58WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:42WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−1.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:15WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:3721% → 23%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
78.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 12 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+32
78.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 32 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
78.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 9 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
77.9%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Wisc 18Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
77.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
77.5%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
77.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 6Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
77.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
77.0%
Emmit Carpenter 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:0577% → 75%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
77.3%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
77.3%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
76.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 12 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
77.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 6 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
76.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.8%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
76.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
76.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
75.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:1624% → 25%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+21
75.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 21 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
75.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
74.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
75.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
75.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 25 yds, downed at the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5976% → 75%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
75.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
75.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+9
74.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 40 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 9 yds to the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5826% → 28%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
74.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
73.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
73.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 16 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
72.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
72.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
71.4%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
72.1%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:2173% → 76%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+14
72.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 14 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
72.5%
Jazz Peavy run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+12
73.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 12 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
73.4%
Corey Clement run for 10 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
73.8%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+22
73.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 22 yds to the Minn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
73.4%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Minn 7Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
73.2%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.1%
Alec Ingold run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
67.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 13 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0170% → 67%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
69.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 21 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
71.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
69.1%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
68.3%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+7
67.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 45 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for 7 yds to the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0533% → 32%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
67.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 18 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-3
65.3%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-6
67.4%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+5
68.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 55 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3067% → 64%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
66.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 9 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
68.1%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
66.4%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
66.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-5
65.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
64.5%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+5
63.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 45 yds , KiAnte Hardin returns for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:5736% → 50%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
64.0%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
62.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 35 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
59.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
59.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+10
60.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 10 yds to the Wisc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
58.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Wisc 3Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3452% → 51%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 24Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
50.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:4250% → 52%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
49.7%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
48.3%
Austin Ramesh run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
47.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 11 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
48.6%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
50
+12
48.4%
Bart Houston run for 12 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
48.4%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
49.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 13 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
48.9%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
48.2%
Dare Ogunbowale run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+11
44.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 11 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
51.8%
Andrew Endicott 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:2952% → 59%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
47.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 22 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
44.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-6
42.4%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Olive Sagapolu for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+15
44.6%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
41.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 25 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
40.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Wisc 14Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
40.2%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
41.4%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted, touchback. Leo Musso return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2247% → 44%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
46.9%
Corey Clement run for 11 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
47.1%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
45.5%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
44.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 3 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
43.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 44 yds, fair catch by KiAnte Hardin at the Minn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3160% → 61%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
40.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 10 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
39.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
38.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 8 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
36.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
35.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
35.5%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
36.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+3
38.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 42 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:4841% → 35%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
41.3%
Bart Houston pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
38.3%
Bart Houston run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 18Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-8
36.2%
Bart Houston sacked by Blake Cashman for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 10Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 23
OWN 10
0
35.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 37 yds , Antonio Shenault returns for no gain to the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:1570% → 69%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
29.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Wisc 46Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-6
28.9%
Mitch Leidner sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+40
31.2%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Sojourn Shelton return for 40 yds to the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0243% → 69%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
43.2%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+16
42.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 16 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3642% → 39%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
58.7%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Chikwe Obasih for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
61.2%
Ryan Santoso punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:3166% → 67%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
65.7%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+23
66.9%
Corey Clement run for 23 yds to the Minn 26 Corey Clement fumbled, recovered by MinnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5843% → 45%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
56.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
53.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
52.4%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
51.8%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
54.7%
Ryan Santoso punt for 39 yds, downed at the Wisc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1960% → 91%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
60.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Encroachment (5 Yards) to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+77
67.4%
Jazz Peavy run for 71 yds to the WISCONSIN 11 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
66.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Minn 2Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.8%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1514% → 13%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
87.3%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Leon Jacobs return for 25 yds to the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.6%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:096% → 6%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Sojourn Shelton return for no gain to the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:3397% → 98%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
96.5%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
96.6%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
97.0%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-1
97.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-1
97.6%
Jazz Peavy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:523% → 2%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
97.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
97.7%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Garret Dooley for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
97.8%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3198% → 99%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
98.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+8
98.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 8 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:58
Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
+26
TD · Q4 6:42
Corey Clement run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
+24
TD · Q4 6:15
Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com