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MSU

Michigan State 12 at Penn State 45

PSU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:19 · Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+28.0Score differential+18.1Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:14: Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:10: Michael Geiger 21 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:02: Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:03: Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:05: Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 59 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:46PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:13MSU 4th & 11 at PSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:03PSU 4th & 21 at PSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:44MSU 4th & 16 at PSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:11PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 17, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:17MSU 4th & 14 at PSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:10MSU 4th & 3 at PSU 3, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:45MSU 4th & 19 at MSU 8, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:54MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:53MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 7, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:44PSU 4th & 7 at MSU 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:53MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 42, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:19PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 28, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:22MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 42, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:26MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 40, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:17MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 39, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 2:14PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:02PSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:03PSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:05PSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:33PSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:40PSU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0484% → 83%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
83.7%
Trace McSorley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
83.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
83.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Demetrius Cooper) to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
83.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
83.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 49 yds, downed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:2717% → 19%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
83.1%
R.J. Shelton run for 9 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+5
82.9%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+39
82.8%
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 39 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
82.3%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
82.1%
LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
81.8%
Damion Terry pass complete to Monty Madaris for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
81.6%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
81.7%
Damion Terry pass complete to Monty Madaris for 10 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.4%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
81.3%
Damion Terry run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
81.2%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
81.2%
Michael Geiger 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0481% → 80%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
81.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
80.4%
Trace McSorley sacked by Demetrius Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
80.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 54 yds, downed at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:1120% → 23%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
80.5%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
80.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
80.0%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
79.6%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+11
79.5%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brandon Bell) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
79.2%
LJ Scott run for 10 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
78.7%
R.J. Shelton pass complete to Damion Terry for 15 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
78.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-5
78.2%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
78.4%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+36
77.3%
Michael Geiger 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:1477% → 77%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
76.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+19
76.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 19 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+18
75.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 18 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
77.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 13 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
77.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
76.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
75.8%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+35
76.8%
Tyler Davis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 5:4624% → 33%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
75.8%
Damion Terry pass complete to Josiah Price for 23 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.5%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
74.5%
Donnie Corley run for 9 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
74.0%
Damion Terry run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
73.4%
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+11
73.1%
Damion Terry pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 11 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
71.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
71.3%
Damion Terry run for 9 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
70.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+4
70.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 4 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-9
70.4%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Manny Bowen and Troy Apke for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
67.5%
Michael Geiger 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:5168% → 78%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
67.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
68.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+25
69.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 25 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
70.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 4 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+10
70.3%
Trace McSorley run for 10 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
69.8%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+16
68.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 16 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
69.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kevin Williams) to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 1:5925% → 34%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
73.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 6 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
72.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 7 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
72.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 8 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
70.9%
R.J. Shelton run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+9
71.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 9 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
70.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
70.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
70.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 3 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Chewins) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
66.3%
Michael Geiger 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0033% → 31%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
67.1%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
66.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 18
-10
68.0%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Curtis Cothran and Evan Schwan for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 19
OWN 8
0
69.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1371% → 81%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
71.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
71.1%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+8
70.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 8 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
70.5%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
81.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5523% → 22%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
76.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+10
77.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.6%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-3
76.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
77.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
78.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4379% → 90%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
78.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 6 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
79.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
79.7%
Andre Robinson run for 15 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
80.5%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+45
89.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:0111% → 14%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.6%
R.J. Shelton run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.4%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
88.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 13 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
87.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
87.3%
Delton Williams run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
87.3%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
87.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
86.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 38 Tyler O'Connor fumbled, recovered by PnSt Grant HaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:3291% → 97%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
91.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
96.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 59 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:575% → 4%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
95.2%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-5
95.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (David Beedle) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
95.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 12
OWN 15
-8
95.9%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Kevin Givens for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 20
OWN 7
0
96.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0198% → 98%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
Miles Sanders run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
97.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
97.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
97.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:474% → 3%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
96.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 9 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+8
96.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
96.6%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Parker Cothren for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+12
96.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 12 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
96.7%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Corley, Donnie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Reid, John) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
96.7%
Donnie Corley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-1
96.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Gerald Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
97.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.1%
Mark Allen run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
98.2%
Mark Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
98.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
96.9%
LJ Scott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
97.0%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
97.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
97.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 5 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+20
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 20 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
98.8%
Andre Robinson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Andre Robinson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Delton WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Delton Williams for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+43
99.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 43 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Juwan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+40
100.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Andre Robinson for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Trishton JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
100.0%
Irvine Paye run for 7 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for 8 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-10
100.0%
Miles Sanders run for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+10
100.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Irvine Paye for 10 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:02
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q2 2:14
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q3 7:03
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 45 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com