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ILL

Illinois 21 at Northwestern 42

NU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:09 · Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+2.8Home team on offense+33.5Score differential+23.4Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:29: Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +5.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:24: Justin Jackson run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:33: Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:32: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +8.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:47NU 4th & 3 at NU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:30ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:22ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 3 at ILL 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:29ILL 4th & 2 at NU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:29NU 4th & 11 at ILL 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:41ILL 4th & 1 at NU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NU 4th & 16 at NU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:57ILL 4th & 17 at NU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:33NU 4th & 12 at NU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50NU 4th & 7 at NU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:09NU 4th & 14 at ILL 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:45ILL 4th & 8 at NU 8, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:20NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:22NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:45NU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:29ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:27ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:24NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:33ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:32NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:24NU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
84.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Chunky ClementsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
84.6%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
84.6%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
84.6%
Ryan Frain punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
84.2%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
84.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+5
84.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 5 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
84.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, downed at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
83.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
83.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
83.9%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
83.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1684% → 85%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
83.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+5
83.7%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Nagel, Flynn, PENALTY ILL offside defense (Phillips,C.) 5 yards to the NU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+12
83.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
83.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+9
83.8%
John Moten IV run for 9 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+14
83.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 14 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
83.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 16 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.5%
John Moten IV run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
83.8%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
84.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 8 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
83.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
83.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
83.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
84.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nwest 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:2884% → 87%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
83.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
83.8%
John Moten IV run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+20
84.1%
John Moten IV run for 20 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 5
OWN 13
+2
83.8%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+4
83.7%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
86.9%
John Moten IV run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin Hardee, broken up by Anthony Walker Jr.Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
85.9%
David Reisner punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 44 , Flynn Nagel returns for 10 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3587% → 87%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
87.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
87.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 6 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
87.0%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-8
87.0%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+13
86.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 13 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-1
86.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
85.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
85.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds Malik Turner fumbled, forced by C.J. Robbins, recovered by Nwest Trae WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:4788% → 92%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
87.5%
Justin Jackson run for 27 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
87.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 11 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Carroll Phillips) to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:119% → 14%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
91.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 6 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
91.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
91.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 20 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
90.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
90.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
91.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
91.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
91.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
91.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
91.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 7 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+19
86.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 19 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
87.3%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tre Watson) to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.8%
John Moten IV run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 3
50
0
87.9%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 3
50
+5
87.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 5 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
87.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 2 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
87.9%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
87.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-10
87.1%
Jackson, Justin rush for 11 yards to the ILL25, out-of-bounds (Dunlap,Jaylen), PENALTY NU holding (Dickerson, G.) 10 yards to the ILL46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
86.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 3:1413% → 22%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
87.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 35 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
86.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
86.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
86.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
87.7%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Hardee,Justin, PENALTY NU holding (Hartage, Montre) 10 yards to the NU26, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
85.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 18 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
82.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
81.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Gimel President for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+37
80.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 yds , Darius Mosely returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-16
80.5%
Corbin,Reggie rush for 1 yard to the ILL44 (Jones, Joseph), PENALTY ILL illegal block (Megginson,Gabe) 16 yards to the ILL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 26
OWN 27
+2
81.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+24
81.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 24 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
79.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Joseph JonesSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+25
80.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 25 yds to the Nwest 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
78.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
78.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to D.J. Taylor for 4 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+38
78.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 16 Reggie Corbin fumbled, forced by Anthony Walker Jr., recovered by Nwest Godwin Igwebuike , return for 23 yds to the Nwest 0 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:5282% → 91%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
81.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 5 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+25
82.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 10 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Stanley Green) to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
91.2%
Justin Jackson run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1911% → 10%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
89.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 29 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
88.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
87.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
87.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-9
88.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+52
90.3%
Chase McLaughlin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.6%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-1
91.7%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-11
91.2%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Gimel President for a loss of 11 yards to the Nwest 24 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Illin Hardy Nickerson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:2613% → 22%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
87.5%
Justin Hardee run for 12 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
87.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew Davis, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
87.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
77.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
84.5%
Thorson, C. pass complete to Nagel, Flynn for 17 yards to the ILL45 (Kelly,Darwyn), PENALTY NU holding (Mahoney, Connor) 10 yards to the NU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 20
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+8
82.5%
Clayton Thorson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+19
82.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 19 yds to the Illin 49 Darius Mosely fumbled, forced by J.B. Butler, recovered by Nwest Kyle QueiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:2886% → 95%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+35
85.2%
Justin Jackson run for 35 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
85.9%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
85.9%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
94.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:269% → 7%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-10
90.7%
Wes Lunt sacked by C.J. Robbins for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-5
91.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Ifeadi Odenigbo for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
92.9%
Ryan Frain punt for 61 yds, downed at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
94.4%
John Moten IV run for 7 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+1
94.5%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 25
-5
93.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Kyle Queiro) to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 20
-6
93.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 60 yds , Darius Mosely returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:377% → 6%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
92.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 10 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to D.J. Taylor, broken up by Marcus McShepardSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+11
94.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
93.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
93.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Tyler White for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
93.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+66
93.9%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Montre Hartage return for 66 yds to the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:2596% → 99%
Q4 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
96.4%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.4%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 13 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin Hardee, broken up by Anthony Walker Jr.Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-9
99.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+39
99.0%
Ryan Frain punt for 39 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4399% → 100%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.2%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+10
99.2%
Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
99.2%
John Moten IV run for 16 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
99.3%
Corey Acker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
99.2%
Corey Acker run for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-2
99.5%
Corey Acker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 84 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
99.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+37
99.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 37 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+36
99.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 36 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam MaysSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Zach Grant, broken up by Kyle QueiroSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
99.8%
John Moten IV run for 7 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+3
99.8%
Auston Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.8%
Auston Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:33
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 9:24
Justin Jackson run for 54 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q3 1:32
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com